Jump to content


  • Posts

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Profile Information

  • Location

Recent Profile Visitors

The recent visitors block is disabled and is not being shown to other users.

East801's Achievements



  1. It's fast becoming clear that any early season optimism for a cold winter is quickly diminishing by the day....blocking nowhere to be seen. A SSW likely in order to save this winter would be the favoured call currently.
  2. Paul would you agree the signs are ominous for those wanting a cold winter? Whilst one of course cannot rule out the odd chilly/cold snap lasting a day or two the odds on a cold winter overall (statistically speaking and in real weather terms) look highly unlikely unless a number of highly respected models have got this very wrong? Statistically (depending on how much faith you put into these models) the odds on a mild and wet winter look the odds on bet currently.
  3. Hopefully we can break some Feb warmth records, very possible. Early taste of Spring and a welcomed closure to a huge winter of let downs. Looking forward to warm and sunny days now, goodbye winter 2018/19.
  4. You know snow and cold chances are bad in the UK when downtown Las Vegas has more snow than the UK on a winters day in Feb. ?
  5. When we reflect back on winter 2018/19 (what winter), I think the most telling observation is how few stonking NWP outputs there has been. A continuous conveyor belt of average to poor runs on a daily basis. Even in winters with no pre hype or expectation there has been far more. A truly awful winter for cold and snow fans. Roll on summer 2019! A
  6. I can’t recall a winter where almost every single major long range model has called this winter so badly. Their validity is at best mediocre. Far too much faith has been placed into this by many. Granted the SSW has raised many of our expectations markedly, sadly the results we were hoping for haven’t materialised. Not the winter many of us hoped for when the long range models were predicting such positive signals for coldies back in November. Time to look to spring now, let’s hope for some early warmth in the models in the next few weeks. Can we nudge a 14/15 deg by the end of the month...hopefully. A
  7. Much better...those values will drop further if we can maintain the NE flow
  8. Any early projections for snow totals tue night? Based on latest runs would say 5-8 cm widely across southern England ...likley to change
  9. Running out of words for the ECM run- surely the chart of the winter at 216! Winter....we’ve missed you...welcome?
  10. Just viewed the ECM - falls off chair Did anyone order an Easterly...from frigid europe with love? WOW!?
  11. A frustrating start to the day across NWP, the Azores high is proving to be a real pain. Everything too far east today, let’s hope for a correction west as the day progresses and some early hints of HLB. A
  12. Far too many knee jerk reactions today over a gfs run or two. we need to remember, the SSW is a slow burner unlike last year when results filtered down within 2 weeks. This will take longer, interspersed with milder interludes before I believe the onset of much colder weather end of Jan. Sometimes we need to remember these are computer systems digesting data from a chaotic atmosphere and results (gfs runs) will differ greatly every 6 hrs or so. The way forward is to take an objective view of all models and esembles and look for patterns, no two runs will be identical...far from it with such a chaotic atmosphere as present. Look at the bigger picture ...the blocks are slowly falling into place ...patience. A
  • Create New...