mushymanrob

absolutely... the ECM Anomalies are hardly worth looking at past week 2, they have varied so much. I guess we need consistency before they can be taken seriously and atm there is none. lol.. you say that, but..... the GFS average 850hpa chart August 4th This agrees with the anomalies , so ignore the anomalies at your peril! lol.. unless all the anomalies start to agree with a pressure build into early August, any operational run showing that is highly likely to be inaccurate. As i see it, August is likely to be better than July, from cool unsettled to average unsettled... with the old North South bias for warmest, sunniest, driest conditions in the South. But theres no heatwave or plume likely before mid August at the earliest.

NOTHING is certain until the moment it happens... but the NOAA arent on their own as my post illustrates... chances of all of these suites being far out are remote.

Reality check.... There is NO evidence of an improvement asthe GFS suggests... Never pin hopes on one GFS run if it has no support... As expected, the previous ECM runs suggesting high pressure into August has gone.

3 wet weeks in july and youre comparing it to 2012 and 2007?... even if it stopped wet this year couldnt be as bad because of the glorious june.

The general rule of thumb when viewing charts at that range is consistency... these did not show blocking yesterday, and before i get my hopes up id like to see blocking being shown consistenly. PLUS ..... the EPS currently does not agree with these charts, although the next run due out before midday might.

until the anomalies start showing a pattern thatll allow those hotter looking charts - and imho they currently dont - then they are "up the garden path" fodder...

Troughing set to remain dominant in a mean Westerly flow into August which can be seen on the GFS average for ten days time, and theres not much change in 2 weeks time although imho these charts are closer to average Yet again this chart suggests any return to high pressure dominance has now been put back until the 15th at the earliest To me, the first half of August is looking average which isnt bad , but its not settled and there no real warmth/heat away from the Southeast. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99056-model-output-discussion-mid-summer-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=4893738

stunning!

Troughing set to remain dominant in a mean Westerly flow into August which can be seen on the GFS average for ten days time, and theres not much change in 2 weeks time although imho these charts are closer to average Yet again this chart suggests any return to high pressure dominance has now been put back until the 15th at the earliest To me, the first half of August is looking average which isnt bad , but its not settled and there no real warmth/heat away from the Southeast.

outdoor worker here too, i agree... far from bad...

So far im finding the Hovmoller chart to be accurate out to ten/14 days, with the developing pattern appearing in the 15-20 days range. This is whats been happening, and all distant signs of an improvement never start to develop.

There are no good signs that i can find from any source. I can find no evidence of high pressure becoming dominant over Northwest Europe... sadly.... The EPS follows the NOAA anomalies.. Average at best... the ECM into mid August and offers no hope.

At last we are beginning to see some pressure rise nudging in to our South.. its a long way to go, painfully long.. we just need to see that trough lifted instead of being maintained... No heat week 1 August... but more average, any heat will be week 2 at the earliest. the only blob of blue in the Northern Hemisphere is still affecting us...

no ..... it means that theres not enough convective activity to have much if any forcing on our weather pattern. other factors will override it.

According to this chart, the MJO has been in the circle of doom since at least June 10th, so i cannot see any forcing from the MJO - which in itself may be a contributory factor..

Clearing here, but im not going out, cant, been drinking.. lol

yes, that is true that if a change develops at say day 12-14 the 8-14 day chart will probably not pick it up first. but then again its less likely to lead you up the garden patch... lol however, i do now use the EPS alongside the noaas.. and IF the EPS is in agreement with the NOAAs at the days they are centred on, then we can get a better idea of which way things are headin in the 12 - 14 day range. So this chart centred on the 29th is a good match to the EPS on the 29th Then subsequent EPS charts to day 15 Would suggest that we can see in which direction the NOAAs are heading. So far though ive found the EPS not to be as reliable.. but IMHO is a really good tool and when used together with the NOAA strengthens and furthers out "most likely" evolution out to day 15.... In this case, there are grounds for a painfully slow evolution towards high pressure domination as we enter into early August, albeit as an Atlantic ridge at first. But these charts still dont bring much of a pressure increase to our South , like the bullish GFS predicted Azores ridge . But at this timescale.... there will be uncertainty.

THe NOAA Anomaly charts do not support the GFS's more progressive Azores high ridge/rescue Summer.... Although it might change... its not too far off .

Good luck for the morning anyone stopping up.. Blank here..

Nearly dark though and theres no sign, no bright patch, nothing..

Flenny has then west of capella.. might be good for morning

I couldnt resist, im out just in case, skies very clear, not going to get a high display.. but... i dunno..

Flenny is clear but the only one... to go out or not?

i was thinking of trying tonight.. looks like itll be on the clear side..

To "stable" id add "regular" ... as in when we have a regular longwave pattern from the West. They do pick out incoming ridges/troughs very well as a rule.. but blocked patterns is when they arent at their best (but nor is any other tool). But look at us.... amateurs talking about picking out developing patterns at day ten ! not only from anomalies either... i remember when the pros could get past day three! Thats a testiment to how far the understanding of our weather has come in conjunction with modern technology.