mushymanrob

and with steadily growing evidence... the EPS is adamant that higher pressure is on the way

Hovmoller is also looking to around the tenth for pressure rise (along with the EPS)

Indeed, there is apparently some weakening, but maybe we are looking too hard. We need more runs to see if this develops further.

Well id suggest that Summer lovers like heat, just as Winter lovers like cold, "average" in Winter wont appease cold lovers any more then average in Summer would satisfy heat lovers..

as things stand, its on its own and these charts have been suggesting an improvement on several occassions this month, all of which has failed.

............... i say that then THIS crops up! LOL Ill believe it when it has support, so far it doesnt, trend spotter our outlier?

I know people say "you cant write off Summer yet" .... and usually that has some credibility. But this year we are stuck in a pattern thats 180 degrees from one needed to produce heat. We can "see" pretty well now into mid August, and we retain the cool unsettled theme. Every "improvement" the longer term Anomalies has hinted at has been put back time and time again. A change in pattern to one that could possibly support a route to heat is at least ten days away and probably longer. It might warm up/settle down by the Bank Holiday, and September might turn out to be cracking.. but September isnt Summer on anything other than a man made definition on a calendar that tidies it up. So im in agreement with you here.... IF we get any settled warmth itll be too late in the season to rescue Summer, and most of us have forgotten Junes nice spell, eclipsed by July rain.... which is ironic after last July was one of the driest on records.

yep, quite a few reports from this morning including dublin...

ill just leave this here....

it was.

not here, lol... cloud rolled in so i didnt bother... doubt we would see much now anyway.. horizon huggers..

The stats dont support that, El Nino Winters since 1990 (when warming started getting going) - 91/2, 94/5, 97/8, 02/3, 04/5, 06/7, 09/10, 14/5. 15/6, 18/9 all these were El Nino for the full 3 months.......... out of those ten , only 09/10 produced any cold/snow. the rest were mild and wet (ok there were some minor snow events in some years).... plus the sst anomaly in the Atlantic would suggest milder more likely. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99056-model-output-discussion-mid-summer-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=4896000

Not seen em... wont until tomorrow because im not expecting any change

... but we are warming. Anyway, lets see how it plays out. No point in going too deeply into what might happen in winter. I dont think it looks good for cold/snow for reasons stated. Only time will tell if my thoughts are right or wrong... so be it..

I can find no correlation between solar maximums/minimums and cold/mild winters or warm/wet summers

...... but we live now, not in the past.. hence i used the "since 1990" because imho the past 30 years are more relevant then more historical times.

Clear night too... any chance?

The stats dont support that, El Nino Winters since 1990 (when warming started getting going) - 91/2, 94/5, 97/8, 02/3, 04/5, 06/7, 09/10, 14/5. 15/6, 18/9 all these were El Nino for the full 3 months.......... out of those ten , only 09/10 produced any cold/snow. the rest were mild and wet (ok there were some minor snow events in some years).... plus the sst anomaly in the Atlantic would suggest milder more likely.

............ only we are heading towards an El Nino phase for the Winter, and El NIno Winters are usually warm, wet and windy.. with the higher than normal Atlantic SSTs, this Winter IMHO isnt looking good for Wintry weather, but could be quite stormy.

EPS is becoming consistent suggesting something less unsettled ... Hovmoller agrees.. some improvement after week 1.. possibly..

no.. youre a "globtard" .. the same as me, because we havnt done our "ReesURch", which involves forgetting everything youve been taught at school (thats indoctrination), ignoring the laws of physics, and being educated by watching half baked youtube vids. Flat Earthers are the dumbest people on the planet....

Not going around in circles he said she said... my last post made it perfectly clear...

to be precise "The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 35% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 25% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8" .... which is why they are accurate. Well i dont disagree that there is likely to be transient ridges, like i said "average unsettled", but i see no sign of "building blocks" beyond a return to average (which isnt bad for early August) ... so we are on the same page?

some were seen this morning through gaps in the cloud... saw nothing on the euro cams last night though.