mushymanrob

CAA ?... cheers knocks, im sort of getting there but i dont understand that chart. appreciate your response though. tbh i use the 850's all the time, and find them to be a very good guide, but clearly they are not an infalible method by viewing them alone.

thats the point in my locale... if the breeze is south of east, we get a lot of warmth and sunshine, as 'our' air tracks across east anglia first after a shorter sea track if our breeze is north of east, even just slightly, we do get a lot of cloud as there is a long sea track/short land track. this is whats confusing me, because a southeasterly would suggest sunshine/warmth, especially under 10c+ uppers. oh well...

an inversion?... surface cooler air from the east/northeast undercutting the warmer southeasterly? i dont usually take much notice of the bbc outlook, but im getting conflicting info and what looks like heat, might not be, and i dont understand why unless theres an undercutting /inversion.

ok, im confused... not sure what to make of the coming conditions. i dont understand why all model suits suggest a week or so at least of high 'uppers' from the southeast which id interpret as hot and humid, temps over 25c, t storms/heavy thundery showers at times, for most of the uk. yet the bbc outlook and accuweather for derby only has temps 21c - 24c... so is the heat restricted to the southeast only? but why would it be relatively cool under very warm uppers of 10c+ ?

well tonights anomaly charts have shifted a bit, ill go back to sleep lol...

dont get me wrong here guys, id love the ops to be correct as i love heat. its true the anomaly charts can be wrong and i hope they are. but realistically they are usually near as damnit correct and are better at predicting the mean upper flow for the 6-14 day period then the ops are. dont know if hes still around as ive not been on, but John Holmes study into these charts some years ago proved this to be the case - when consistent. (for newer members). i use them all the time now, and dont often view the ops, im not too bad at reading what conditions we are likely to get and this has proven very popular on a facebook page i broadcast to (by request). so confidence at reading them is quite solid. the chart i posted shows the anticyclone anchored just west of north to the uk. that wouldnt allow for the hot deep southeasterly the ops currently predict as they have the high anchored further east over northern europe/scandinavia. but hey ho, its just an observation, my faith in the anomaly charts has been misplaced before, i hope it is this time! time will tell.

sorry chaps, whilst there are some stunning outputs currently if you like it hot, the anomaly charts dont agree with the ops as to where the high will be centered, and the anomaly charts are more often then not correct. they have been suggesting high pressure evolution just west of north now for several days which to me suggests consistency. so to my eye, this chart will not lead to this

hi... im getting infected by spyware when i use wetterzentrale. also on the noaa site, . ive had my pc scrubbed clean but on rebooting, i still get these pop ups. anyone else getting these? sorry if its the wrong forum.

lovin this quiet cool calm weather, perfect winter for me.

excellent post as ever knocks although why one character persists in using the 'confused' emoji seemingly on every post you make (and others) is rather confusing in itself! lol.

id have thought the hinted at progression of these charts would give coldies some hope. pressure building to our north, the mean upper atlantic trough heading south, jet stream heading south for iberia... i dont like the cold but for what its worth id have thought chances of a prolonged proper cold spell later this month are pretty promising. its not looking mild to me anyway.

not yet, but high pressure drifting across our north eastwards is certainly a potential for cold. its just not going to settle right, but its close

weve had one attempt of a proper cold spell before crimbo, we have another now, if this pattern continues there will be at least one more opportunity by the end of the month, which is the time most likely to deliver a cold spell. one thing looks obvious, theres no prolonged mild on offer.

with charts like this, there was never going to be a prolonged easterly . if little old me can understand that, why dont the 'knowledgeable'?

yes you are right. its looking cold and raw at the worst currently, theres no deep cold pool to tap into. so many are being lead up the garden path yet again. but it must be said that the great beasterlies of the past often took a while to establish after a couple of weeks of messy synoptic charts which dallied with high pressure somewhere to the north of the uk. there must be a strong chance that a beasterly proper will develop later this month.

indeed... i remember a run of mild winters in the early/mid 70's . there was an article on nationwide with sue lawley highlighting the mild winters and some were saying the very same things as some are now 'we dont get winters like we used to'... lol.

absolutely agree...... i dont use them though because i dont understand them...lol. i note your shadow is still replying with a 'confused' emoticon. heaven knows why, they must be really dumb if they dont understand all of your posts!

...... seems theres growing evidence now that the scenario described above might actually happen. the outlook into the new year certainly isnt mild, and transitory snow events might well occur. this has a very 'mid 80's' feel about it, and both 85 and 86 delivered a beast from the east.

is there?.... i was just thinking this morning the first tentative steps towards one was taking place. ok its a very long shot/straw cluth, but the noaa anomaly charts are now suggesting for the 8-14 day time period pressure to fall to our south, where once it was higher. a strengthening azores high that might become negatively tilted, pressure rising over northern europe. ok... this is a very long shot, but IF this comes to be reality, then it wouldnt take much for an easterly to occur IF pressure rose over northern europe/scandinavia, and IF the azores high tilted the jet negatively thus directing the atlantic systems south of the uk into southern europe.. there, see, anyone can present a reasonable cold ramp if they tried! sounds like a northen soul disco lol (as opposed to a john travolta type set up) i note someone has no sense of humour posting confused emoticons on your posts... lol.

tbh thats pretty much a cert imho.. the question is though, how long will that pattern last?

maybe they think a strong atlantic jet thats due is something that historically is hard to shift, so history suggests a proper cold spell is unlikely? but then we had 2013....

ay, but dont forget, those winters werent the norm, i was young but dont recall such winters after '63, and the early 70's were pretty mild and snowless.

how dare us sad old things not revel in snow... i wonder why this is, maybe the offending poster will understand when they become a 'sad old thing'

i most agree with you here, but surely after watching the models so long plus experience you can get 'a feeling' for something based on past experiences? no?... in saying that, i dont get any feeling that things will become cold/wintry, now the jet is gaining strength and has the uk in its sights.

... i know, i didnt say otherwise, i really dont listen to lrf's.... ive found i can guess as accurately tbh. i hope that those who endevour to try to interpret them continue and that one day they really will be more accurate. well if recent history is anything to go by, you could well be right. this strong jet expected just after crimbo isnt likely to go anywhere fast, and although it might not be continuously mild, proper cold snaps/spells will be very hard to come by until that jet weakens.