mushymanrob

that charts isnt as good as it might first appear .... the contour lines are too close together, not wildly so, but they show westerly mobility meaning theres no chance of a large, strong, lasting high over us... every model changes on a daily basis, the hovmoller goes out to a month ahead meaning they will change more.. its consistency we need before they can be taken too seriously more than 14 days ahead.

id suggest that 1c either side of the actual average temperature for anywhere is within the average range... average isnt an exact figure... or if you want to be pedantic "around average"..

very well, in various ways, the ecm anomalies not so clever but very reliable. rubbish

probably nothing it would mighty unusual if all these suites were far off the mark...

oh, and here we go, it just goest to show how good these charts can be...

Not sure about this morning tbh, if its Simons its very dubious... you have to look so hard to try to see anything..

They are new to me too and am obviously still learning how to interpret them properly.. they are an upgrade because from the 15th, that chart has no low pressure near us... CW is right, its a possitive upgrade.. BUT .... id like to see that upgrade on a few more runs yet...

Well i dont agree that August is going to follow Julys pattern... The NOAA chart from one month ago clearly shows an unsettled regime with air sourced from the far North, hitting the warm Atlantic, causing cyclogenesis . The latest NOAA chart suggests a large block to our North, so no PM air sweeping into the Atlantic , and the 500mb height contours originate well West of the UK, not North. To me this suggests at least average unsettled if not warm unsettled, but with heighter pressure over the UK than July, it shouldnt be as wet? Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99056-model-output-discussion-mid-summer-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=4901456

Well i dont agree that August is going to follow Julys pattern... The NOAA chart from one month ago clearly shows an unsettled regime with air sourced from the far North, hitting the warm Atlantic, causing cyclogenesis . The latest NOAA chart suggests a large block to our North, so no PM air sweeping into the Atlantic , and the 500mb height contours originate well West of the UK, not North. To me this suggests at least average unsettled if not warm unsettled, but with heighter pressure over the UK than July, it shouldnt be as wet?

To illustrate a little for those who need a little help... Note on this chart the blue area just to the left of the meridian from the 17th to the 20th? Well heres the latest EPS for the 19th... it supports the hovmoller chart, so by getting a good idea on what the upper air pattern is likely to be in 14 days time, we get a better idea of which operational runs are likely to be closest, if any.. from that we can deduce the most likely details.. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99056-model-output-discussion-mid-summer-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=4900590

i wouldnt know, i dont follow every model run, i view them only to determine the detail for the week ahead.. i use the anomalies, eps and ecm hovmoller now for the general evolutionary pattern

The general rule of thumb is ridging is orange/red.. troughing is blue, white is neutral. Nope, not the EPS but i think @johnholmes has done one in the learning zone for the noaa charts which follow the same principal... youll have to look that one up yourself! lol.

the eps (second chart) is for the 19th, it shows some troughing to our west and some ridging to our east, as per the hovmoller charts for the 19th.. at that range they are only weak signals, they can disappear or grow, they usually grow/become more defined.

To illustrate a little for those who need a little help... Note on this chart the blue area just to the left of the meridian from the 17th to the 20th? Well heres the latest EPS for the 19th... it supports the hovmoller chart, so by getting a good idea on what the upper air pattern is likely to be in 14 days time, we get a better idea of which operational runs are likely to be closest, if any.. from that we can deduce the most likely details..

red = high, blue = low... the dotted line down the middle is the greenwich meridian, its a longitude chart that lines up with the smaller map below. use the dates on the left, work across to the meridian... most of the uk is just to the left of the meridian (west).

Im finding these charts are pretty good. A new edition (i believe - or was i just blind? lol) but in the last couple of months or so they appear to be good at picking up on the general pattern , as usual - when consistent. This current chart suggests generally high to be dominant 9th - 12th, then it eases with the high East of the UK, low pressure to our West becomes dominant 17th - 20th, before a more neutral average spell.. possibly high domination by the 24th... Itll be interesting to see if this pattern is accurate or not, but so far im impressed as it helps us "see" further ahead than my favoured NOAA charts, and when used in conjunction with the EPS all 3 suites are pretty good, even out to 3 weeks... Time will tell

yes, its looking warm and unsettled as opposed to cool and wet.. could be good for thundery activity... but i cant see clear blue skies, settled sunny heat out of this.

This is interesting, we could be heading for a plume possibility just after mid month, as these current charts are in broad agreement

ive not seen any, not looked though tbh but they normaly find me.

I wouldnt say "trust", id say "treat with caution", but they do appear to be quite accurate..

as far as im concerned, its over... a very frustrating/disappointing season... over the next couple of weeks we will be treated to displays over the far north/scandinavia on the forums... but i blinked and this season has passed... all too quickly..

I wouldnt pay much heed to those unless/until they become consistent. @Addicks Fan 1981 ... i can add nothing to what @johnholmes has just posted...

I wouldnt rule out a brief plume, but theres nothing to suggest from any source that we are going to get a lengthy heatwave. The 500mb height contours on the NOAA and EPS suggest mobility, and dont support a large high over us, they are too close together and too "flat". But i do expect it to be driER and warmER ....

i read the 8-14 dayer as "average unsettled" as opposed to the current and the 6-10 dayer "below average unsettled" ... losing the low pressure anomaly over us to something more neutral/slightly higher to me suggests average Summer weather, not overly wet, but not completly dry either with average temps...

yes, they are tentatively starting to support the more progressive EPS , so an improvement might be on the cards before mid month