mushymanrob

spot on, and those of us that have looked into them agree with what john has said. of course they are not infallible, they are inaccurate sometimes, but not as inaccurate as the ops for the timeframe. the noaa's are currently at odds with the ops, the ecm keen to bring the azores ridge across our south, the 00z gfs suggests a scandinavian high by day 10. the noaas keep the azores ridge to our west, troughing over the mediterranean . so great uncertainty ahead, but its looking below average/cool.

you mean cold?... indeed after a stunning period today (here at least) where it really felt like spring had sprung, its back to a rather cooler rather miserable day tomorrow. i feel though that in any sun it will feel ok.

this is getting daft.... very cold surely means colder then cold, colder then average isnt as cold as cold. eg march average = 8c , colder then average = 6c, cold = 4c , very cold = 2c . just as a rough example. of course cold and very cold are colder then average - but colder then average doesnt mean very cold. colder then average means a few degrees below..

sorry, i dont agree. colder then average suggests a few degrees below the average - cold suggests temps much lower, silly semantics or not theres a difference.

i can live with 'colder than average' , id struggle with 'cold'. and theres the difference.

NOAA 500mb anomaly watchers, /newbies. i, personally, would love the current ecm @ 240 to be correct but the noaa 8-14 day chart suggests to me this is what we are likely to get in the timeframe appropriate. the noaa 8-14 day anomaly appears to be moving towards pressure rise to our northwest and lower pressure over central/southern europe much in line with what 'bring back 62-63' described. but.... i dont think this northeasterly be snowy, just overcast, drab, cold but dry.

"its not sprinklike"? lets see lengthening daylight?.... check strengthening sun?....... check fresh spring air?............ check birds singing springtime mating calls?.... check springtime flowers and blossoms in bloom?.... check warming up?................. not really seems to me the only springtime element that doesnt fit the springtime description are temeratures, and as we all know seasons are not determined by temperatures alone! so please dont tell me its not springlike, because apart from temperatures it certainly IS!

some of the cherry picked charts have done so, giving the impression that something like that will happen yes, no ones posted what the charts havnt shown, but selecting only the coldest option, whilst not 'illegal' is misleading to those who want a realistic view of what might lie ahead. i can only report on what john holmes has found, as it was he who did the research. the rest of us (mostly) havnt done the research but have taken note of his observations and found them to be very good for the timeframe they cover. if i remember correctly, john the other day suggested the 6-10 day chart is 70-80% accurate whilst the 8-14 day is 60-70% ?... so the answer is that they are not perfect, and sometimes they can miss sudden swings. but compare their success rate at these time frames to the ecm and gfs that gibby publishes and youll see that the noaa are most accurate. im not forecasting northern blocking, the current noaa charts suggest a strong azores ridge, nosing north of the azores with a trough in the north northsea . the 8-14 day chart suggests the azores ridge might drift closer to the uk, but the mean upper flow over the uk is still northwesterly. theres no strong northern blocking within the 6-14 day period on the current output, other then transient surface features. but im a novice, i might be wrong!

.... so if we vote out of europe, will we stop getting european weather linke spanish plumes?...lol

i didnt say otherwise mate... yes we will get some pm shots, but what will they deliver? look at now, today, we were supposed to be getting near ice days and snow showers off the north sea - what have we got?.. its a bit chilly. the pm shots we are likely to get isnt anything unusual for the time of year, in early march its normal to get some chillier days with some wintry precipitation mostly on higher ground. so wintry with a small 'w', yep, normal - wintry as in like january?... nah, not on this mornings charts, just normal below average. i have no idea what glosea5 is. ive not viewed it, i dont even know where it is! imho theres so many resource facilities its hard to know what to pick and what to trust. so for a layperson like myself who doesnt want to or have the time to delve much deeper, its simpler to find a favoured model and stick to that. so far the noaa charts are the most accurate for their timeframe (didnt i read somewhere that glosea5 was good at predicting blocking upto 3 month in advance?) . they have proven most accurate for the general picture time and time again, and when a few op runs predict something that the noaa charts dont support - its nearly a hundred percent that the noaa charts are proven right and the ops fantasy charts are inaccurate. this has happened many times this winter. it would be interesting though if someone compared the accuracy of glosea5 against the noaa 500mb charts for the time period they cover.

i wouldnt worry too much about these charts, the noaa anomaly charts do not support such a synoptic pattern, so is highly unlikely to happen?

indeed, cold nagging overcast but dry easterlies in march/april are far more common (at least here in derby) then anything snowy. easterly snow (that settles) in march is much rarer then these overcast dull cold days.

i dont see anything wintry this morning, and after several arctic shots that failed to deliver anything properly cold - even this easterly is a feline cat from the east, not a beast, whilst theres nothing very mild on offer (which for early march isnt unusual) theres nowt cold either - im not fretting about the outlook and how itll effect my work. so i dont really see the point in getting hopeful about 'below average' temps, as thats pretty normal . the anomaly charts suggest the azores ridge might move closer after next weekend, so it might become less showery/wet especially in the west and temps should recover to near average. edit...i see the swear filter has altered a genuine phrase , obvs i wasnt using the 'p' word (in relation to cats) in a vulgar manner!

we are certainly entering a volatile period with great uncertainty in the models. of course the extremes are unlikely to verify, but a mixed bag of generally cool weather looks likely.

that chart looks like april 1974 - we had days of stratus off the north sea , the west fared best as they had sunshine and if the cloud burned back we (in derby) joined the west in warm sun. at least it was dry.

good to see people taking note of these, ive been on here 10 years and ive seen new fads for some databases heralded as 'the' one come and go - but johns findings on these charts are proving time and time again to be the best indicator of the likely pattern for the timeframe they cover. i view the noaa charts first, and when they are consistent over a few runs they are very accurate. this helps those of us who want to know what the most likely outlook will be. it irons out the vagaries of the ops - so wont lead you up the garden path like the ops can do. in saying all that, im not so sure that the current ones are immune from uncertainty as the 6-10 day chart has changed to a more 'flat' run whilst the 8-14 day chart is holding on to troughing to our near east. not sure thats a plausible evolution , maybe low confidence for these? edit - just seen johns already mentioned this...

all i see is nuisance cold now - not cold enough for cold/snow lovers, not mild enough for those of us looking for some spring warmth.

it should be no surprise the ecm has changed from its 'flat' outlook, the noaa anomaly charts never agreed with that pattern.

nuances are not easy to convey in cold type.

might change sir... the anomaly charts are only predicting with current data, and they dont suggest a huge greenland high (lasting) , but indeed they might change, but until they do, id have thought the chances of one were low?. of course these charts are not 100% accurate, and on this occasion might have to adjust to something others have picked up on first.

cheers karl

the noaa charts dont show a scandi block, most of the gfs 06z is unlikely to occur according to the noaa's, the 06z gfs looks to be in agreement @ 162 and right at the end @384 . i dont know whether the gfs anomaly will show this or why it doesnt if it doesnt. ill keep things simple and stick with the noaa's. yep, theres a strong azores high, and a scandinavian trough. if you view the green lines, they represent the direction of the upper air flow which over the uk on that chart is northwest. surface features, systems , shortwave lows, are likely to track towards the southeast from the northwest. in front of these features the surface winds would come from a more southerly, or south of northwest. behind the feature surface winds would indeed come from the north or northeast. but these arent fixed, they are transient as the upper flow (mean) remains in the northwest. there would indeed be a lot of polar maritime air in this pattern. im sure john holmes will be able to explain it better then i.. heres a chart id expect to verify off the current noaa 8-14 day.

ok... lets just say for example that knocker only posts mild charts.... (he doesnt) SO WHAT?.

theres plenty of cold weather in sight and knocker has reported it as such. knocker doesnt control the weather you know, he only posts what the charts are showing.

not to me.... that chart shows troughing to our northeast and a strong azores high with a mean upper flow from the northwest. this will allow for some northerly incursions but equally some westerly ones too. it smacks of unsettled , below average, mixed weather with some wintry showers mainly on northern hills.