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mushymanrob

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Everything posted by mushymanrob

  1. Actually, thats a myth... theres no evidence to support high pressure builds in early september and more then there is at any other time of the year. I did a cursory check on the charts for the last 30 years - 11/30 held the same pattern (from August) - 13/30 didnt improve, in fact they got worse - 6/30 did improve Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99056-model-output-discussion-mid-summer-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=4911596
  2. Actually, thats a myth... theres no evidence to support high pressure builds in early september and more then there is at any other time of the year. I did a cursory check on the charts for the last 30 years - 11/30 held the same pattern (from August) - 13/30 didnt improve, in fact they got worse - 6/30 did improve
  3. Sunny is spot on... ive worked outside for 50 years now and you do remember and fix (alongside current music) in my head the more extreme conditions at certain times when doing a variety of jobs.
  4. 1956 and 1980 both had sunny dry Mays which lifted them up my index, 1974 comes in 21st worst.
  5. no you dont, they are freely available and most of you can read them! lol ... they are pointing towards a very ordinary average spell from next weekend onwards
  6. owing to my 1981 error, 1977 - 799 takes its 20th worst position..
  7. Yes found my mathematical error... scrub 1981, it finished just below halfway point, probably whereabouts 2023 will finish, see above
  8. that might be an error on my part..... i was rushing.. ill check now
  9. OK, ive just completed my spring/summer combined index, this is based upon the relative values of temps, rainfall and sunshine taken from Oxford and Sutton Bonnington with some adjustments to cater for area averages. this is from 1930 as theres no sunshine records from Oxford before then. The values are combined from my Spring and Summer indexes, although tbh my Spring one is "mark 1" and needs to be updated which wont be done until next year. (busy on Autumn and September indexes atm) The top 20 are 2022 - 1424 1976 - 1309 1995 - 1279 1990 - 1274 2011 - 1250 1949 - 1213 2020 - 1205 1933 - 1197 2003 - 1182 1959 - 1154 2018 - 1152 2009 - 1138 1940 - 1131 1975 - 1113 1989 - 1096 1952 - 1091 2015 - 1090 2013 - 1084 1955 - 1049 1934 - 1047 The bottom 20 are 2007 - 795 2004 - 782 1965 - 780 1941 - 777 1951 - 775 1936 - 772 1971 - 771 1998 - 769 1958 - 760 1988 - 752 1985 - 751 1987 - 736 1954 - 731 1968 - 724 1948 - 714 1932 - 662 2012 - 654 1969 - 623 1931 - 605 (1981 - 595 ... might be wrong) Oh, and 2023 will not make the bottom 20, but be somewhere between there and half way... so bottom half.
  10. where did you get the formula from?.... ive created my own based on central england, but havnt merged spring/summer yet.
  11. well unusually hes not been on for 3 days now.... make of that what you will as hes a daily visitor. but i did suggest several times the he stopped digging....
  12. Looks like Sunny76 has left us... well its a pity if he has, but you cannot come here and make outrageous comments that have no statistical support and expect to be respected for it. In the title of the thread it says "on record" , so to prove a point we need to view the records, the stats... he was ignoring them
  13. The CET is the most accurate way of comparing year on year... being away from the coast itll give a better idea of the mean temperature. It isnt foolproof but its the best we can do. Of course accurate local records from anywhere including outside the CET zone will give a more accurate account for that locale. The question is, how do we use temperatures to compare Summer?... the daily mean? or the daily mean maximum?... surely the daily mean is best because itll allow for cool/tropical nights , after all, Summer isnt about daytime!
  14. But cherry picking the period when this year was dull means nothing... lets see what the sunshine levels are for the Summer... June, July, August. After all most Summers have a dull phase. I suspect theyll be in the average range..
  15. They dont..... the pattern they show is pretty consistent, they showed high pressure becomind dominant on the 16th peaking on the 20th over a week ago and thats exactly what they are showing today. All models at that range are liable to change, whats the point in them then?.. Im very happy with the way they are performing, true the detail can modify but overall they are picking out the coming trends very well .
  16. STOP DIGGING!....... Im no coldie, i love heat!!! The statistics will show that this summer is average..... thats where its heading.... THAT is a fact. 25c in London, what are you moaning for?
  17. LOL... since when have YOU spoken for "most people"?... youve been ripped apart on here by fellow weather enthusiasts... stats mean everything, they PROVE what conditions have been like. STOP DIGGING!
  18. STOP DIGGING...... you are talking utter rubbish ... try using statistics, not memory, memory is flawed and you live in the past as 99% of the posts you create are about the past. You imagine everything modern is not as good as what it was in the past - you are wrong when it comes to the weather... opinion doesnt count, facts do, back up your claims with stats. but stop digging!
  19. if its a "fact" then you could supply actual data to support that claim. please feel free to view the data thats freely available online, however i can tell you now that with the current CET at 16.4, julys at 16.1 and junes at 17, this Summer is heading for a CET of 16.5c which would rank it 32nd/364 ....
  20. I think that the bad weather that coincided with the weekends has also skewed peoples perceptions of Summer 2023.
  21. Nonsense.... we had a record breaking June, and whilst July rivalled 07 and 12, this month isnt bad. Summer 2023 will end up in the "average" range....
  22. Youve had half your rainfall halfway through the month?.. thats average then surely?
  23. The Hovmoller chart from the ECM suggests high pressure domination from tomorrow until the 25th.... it doesnt make much of the "breadown" on Friday/Saturday, see the anomaly to our West doesnt effect the East so much. Compare that one with todays... so a reapeat of today this weekend isnt likely. It is still suggesting average conditions by the bank holiday but so far not as bad as today. this chart doesnt rule rain out, but it should pass/be light (outside thunderstorms) but i doubt itll pick up such features. But if you want to understand what this chart is saying, veiw the current (00z) EPS sequence because i think that run illustrates exactly what this hovmoller is showing.. EPS Model – 500mb Height Anomaly for Northern Hemisphere | Tropical Tidbits WWW.TROPICALTIDBITS.COM EPS model forecast of 500mb Height Anomaly for Northern Hemisphere
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