Empire Of Snow

The PIT , I wouldn't even look at GFS right now. It all depends on the intensity and DPs. I wouldn't rule out a couple of cm at 200m+ and maybe a couple more at 300m+. Ppn line probably from North Yorkshire to the south.

raz.org.rain , maybe temporarily for 24-36h? I can't say this is a consistent theme though. The Canadian PV has a strong Easterly/Southeasterly flow enabling the Atlantic. I think we'll have a clearer picture by the end of Sunday. I don't rule out ofc a major event of very cold weather in southeastern Europe as they're due for one this winter and March has historically delivered there. If this happens, yes it means a more prolonged very mild and dry weather for us.

As it stands, anyone's expecting a decent warmup with dry weather in early Spring it's likely to be dissapointed. The scenarios are either wet and breezy (normal temps but chilly under windy weather) or cold/very cold dry/showery. That said, any potential shift of the Azores high over us will likely bring very cold, snowy weather in Eastern Europe.

I think areas of Sheffield and Harrogate (especially in higher ground) were in the prime/sweet spot yesterday. We reached around 15cm last night and we still have spots of snow after many hours of rain. It's not the first time Harrogate gets a decent amount of snow as it seems some systems continously feed the area with ppn either stalling or pivoting.

HarrogatePete , yes good event so far. Haven't measured up here but looks like we have around 5cm more than the town centre. Should be around 13-15cm.

Harsh Climate , still better than nothing though. As it is very difficult/rare to get a proper snowmachine pattern I don't mind tomorrow's system.

The PIT , DPs should be low enough for snow right off the start.

A bit of a rollercoaster today. Looks like we're back in the game in Leeds and North Yorkshire?

russwirral , true. More tools doesn't always mean more accuracy. I'm grateful we have all these tools accessible to us but like you sometimes I miss the old days.

It's absolutely bonkers to me that a lot of people Midlands south want the system to shift even more south. Unless I'm reading the charts completely wrong, any further south correction will result to a more extensive/intrusive warm sector for these areas. This means the snow window will narrow down time wise. Maybe Kasim or someone else can clarify this or correct me if I'm completely wrong.

LeeSnowFan , I'm just looking right now at the latest data and I think we'll miss it altogether up here. As it stands we won't even see a flurry in North Yorkshire.

LeeSnowFan around 10cm if METO verifies, around 5cm if ARPEGE, ICON, GFS verify.

Harsh Climate , METO still suggests otherwise and I was expecting them to change the forecast already which strangely hasn't happen. As I said earlier, if the shift is more south I don't see how this setup can provide widespread snow at low levels in Midlands. Some members here believe the shift will drag colder uppers to reach southern areas but they disregard the fact that any stalling will result to warmer air pushing through quicker.

If ARPEGE is correct (big if) warmer air will dominate even at early stages through Midlands so it's going to be an all cold rain event with spots of snow in higher ground. I'd wait for more METO updates later today as this is a big shift in regards of ppn coverage.

Mark Bayley , beggars can't be choosers. Give me 10cm on Thursday all day and I don't really mind about Friday. A couple of years ago we had snow melting even with 0c..

Wold Topper , tbh 6-7 days ago I had this week written off completely re snow chances so Thursday comes as a little surprise for me. Latest data is close to my prediction earlier today for 5-8cm here, might get just a couple cm eventually but it's better than nothing.

wrightc23 , afaik Thursday's event wasn't even on the cards until later last week especially for Midlands south. Now Midlands have a chance. It's one thing discussing each run even at 300h (absolutely fine with me, this is why it's a models thread) but it's another taking for granted charts after 96h and having a meltdown because they don't verify. Professionals are struggling even at 24h forecasts in all countries, especially in Europe. USA and Japan for many reasons are completely different and the meteorologists there have more tools on their hands plus the setups and patterns are a bit more straightforward.

wrightc23 , are they having a meltdown for this Thursday or for 200h+? I was brave enough to have a quick look but it really is very difficult to follow the posts there right now.

Still a lot to be resolved re Thursday. Some places will easily get around 20cm, that's 300-350m. The rest of us will find out in nowcasting conditions. For example, at my door and elevation a 5-8cm is possible, 2 miles away Harrogate centre might get a slushy fest of 1cm.

The PIT I know but I don't think they're reflective of the situation. The cold uppers are overestimated imo.

The PIT , temps will be around 2-3c and 4c in places.

The PIT , it won't be freezing rain, it will be either hail or just cold rain. I'd wait until Tuesday night for any details.

Decemberof2010 imo it won't snow anywhere in lower levels unless there's something major I'm missing charts wise. The precipitation ones are bizarre. I reckon they rely on negative DPs throughout but I'd be very careful regarding this.

winterof79 can't see this verifying. Some in the MOD thread are underestimating again the warm air/sector. As it stands any snow will be confined to 300m or even 350m+ with temporary sleet in lower levels. Still early though as everything can change but my experience suggests the cold air will be further north and might not even reach North Yorkshire.

VID_20240129_214304.mp4.d3892ee546c3d84ee7e0dc17455df884.mp4 Greece now thundersnow... We can't even get a 1cm snowfall and places there will end up with 50cm+ again.