Reversal

Unfortunately the trend away from amplification in the Atlantic and over Greenland has been consistent for 48 hours now.

But yesterday, and for a few days before that we were seeing successful amplification into Greenland. Now we're seeing potential of reamplification at the far reaches if FI. The output has become less amplified with every run since yesterday evening. That's not saying it's a totally flat pattern, but the trend is the wrong way today.

Compared to the output over the last few days? Definitely flatter compared to what had been consistent recent output, which was what I said. But nevermind, objective opinion clearly not welcome.

Cold in the medium term, but longer term a definite trend over the last 48 hours towards a less amplified NH profile in the long term. GFS dropping a Greenland high, with each run showing lower heights in that area. Hopefully not the beginning of a pattern change for the worst.

And exactly why we shouldn't be saying so certainly that the models are yet to smell the coffee because the trop isn't mirroring the forecasted strat profile the way we would like it to It's has been suggested repeatedly that the models are yet to "smell the coffee". This coffee being the strat or MJO output of those same models. Is there any truth to the notion that models don't take account of the feedback of the very events they are forecasting? It doesn't seem likely that NWP would have a less holistic view of the atmosphere when compared to wx enthusiasts looking for one type of weather in one part of the globe

Is there any actual evidence that models are slow to take the effects of a SSW into account until it's under way. Similarly, it has been suggested here that the models are yet to factor in the impacts of the MJO. It doesn't seem logical to say the GFS is not taking the amplitude of the MJO phase into account. And then make an independent forecast based of a GFS MJO plot... Similarly with strat impacts. It's seems likely that the GFS/ECM/UKMO take many more drivers, signals and data into account than any human ever could when coming up with a forecast. Perhaps it's us enthusiast's are the ones failing to take drivers into account. And within there lies the mismatch between our expectations and NWP output, not the other way around.