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  • Gender
  • Location
    Farnham, Surrey
  • Interests
    Obscurist tendencies away from the 21st Century Direction. Philosophy, Theology, Science, Dogs and Weather.
  • Weather Preferences
    Cold, Sunny and Dry with a Hard Frost.
  1. Most astonishing thunderstorm event I witnessed has a scientific paper written about it! The West Surrey Thunderstorm. Absolutely monumental on rainfall alone. Caused severe flooding. https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/wea.174
  2. GFS seems keen on pushing cold deep south into the States over the next week. Is that likely to have an effect on Atlantic activity? I know the two aren't intrinsically linked but presumably it can wag the jet stream tail, as it were?
  3. I will be interesting to see what the MO do with the projected northerly shift of the Biscay moisture. They seemed pretty certain last night it would never reach beyond the south coast. No doubt this is just one of several occurrences this week which will go to the wire.
  4. The mouldering carrot of cold continues to ever hover near the distant horizon as the never learning donkey of dull mediocrity plods on through the westerly gale....
  5. A year ago today we were feeling the full impact of one of the worst storms of last Winter. There was no chance of anything stopping that conveyor of misery. What we have is a very different and currently unpredictable outlook. Might go cold. As others have said, it's all changing day on day. Nothing to be miserable about. ...especially given where we were this time last year...
  6. Evening All. Long time no post. Always watching though.Seasons greetings to you all...I'm Orthodox so Christmas is not until the 7th Jan so a bit of wait still..but it may be white! I live in hope. Anyway, that Low on the 27th. East Coast storm surge screams out of some of those model runs...
  7. Where have all the other posters gone? Not difficult to answer. This particular forum is not really objective model discussion and hasn't been for a long time. The problem is particularly bad during the Winter months when the hunt for Red October...sorry...cold ...occupies 80%+ of the posts and god help anyone else who tries to moderate or look anywhere but that. Others have moved away from posting on a regular basis and now many of the short term cold fanatics have naffed off there is a void. I love net weather but this problem has been getting worse for a while....
  8. Am I allowed to say there are loads of people looking through the various models at the moment who really gave up giving a monkey's about any sort of cold weather...unless it's dry! The usual entertainment value of find the cold spell left on a bus of desperation a couple of weeks ago....now I'm just looking for a period of weather when I'm and hundreds of others are not having to dry out walls and floors twice a week. It is getting scary now. I just want to bring a reality check to some.
  9. Interestingly though...if you look at the French weather radar...quite a lot of the rain is dissapating before it gets to the South East. Not all of it....but a reasonable amount. Lets see what the next few hours brings...
  10. The front(s) seem to be moving through at a right old pace. Might well be drier in SW Surrey in a couple of hours! That's not bad....though obviously not great!
  11. FI is FI. doesn't matter if you favour mild or cold, the same very small chances of stuff at +192 hours or whatever verifying carry on. What has been the theme of this Winter? Outside rain, it's been the unprecedented repeat violent swings across a number of the models. Nothing is reliable outside the 5 day window....yes the Atlantic looks very powerful but it takes a brave man or woman to hang your hat on anything in mid Feb....
  12. This Winter has been screaming cold late Feb and March for a week or so. The Atlantic rules currently but the threats of the Russian High and strat warming will do something. ..just not yet.
  13. Aware this has been mentioned earlier but the rainfall forecast for today has been one of the worst close quarter misjudgements I can remember from the Met Office for a long time. They were still forecasting substantial rainfall in the South East during the day still at 8.00am! Hey ho. I'm afraid I cannot get remotely excited about 'cold' in the forecast because of the continual recent unreliability of the models. The storm track on Sunday is still variable so anything else in a weeks time (or even 5 days plus) is still at the mercy of one of the over regular 'flips' we've seen in recent weeks
  14. What is the core mb forecast for Sunday's storm? The track looks to be the worst possible for many across the heart and south of England! Is it likely to move through swiftly do people think?
  15. Thank the lord the Countryfile extended forecast has put an end to all this uncertainty... ha! Funniest 2 mins of forecasting I've seen in years. Very honest though..basically all detail confidence falls apart 72 hours plus.Speaks volumes really...
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