[Storms and Convective discussion - April 2024]

Today does seem to hold some merit at least for the far SE for the potential of some thundery activity into the evening.

Shear profiles from AROME do seem to suggest the possibility of organised convection developing in the far SE with a low chance of any storm developing supercellular characteristics with it. It seems more likely that this will happen in northern France due to the 1500 J/kg of MUCAPE being available vs the 600/700 available in the SE. The abundance of potential convection developing in the SE does make me feel it's pretty unlikely unless one of the storms scoops up everything left in its environment. 

AROME did seem to play with the idea of a supercell developing in northern France on its 12z run yesterday with a storm that deviated to the right of its mean wind.

Theta-E values are also highest in the far SE which seems to indicate to me at least that there is where most of the thundery activity will be even if convection does develop further west. All that being said however I still wouldn't put the chances of any thunderstorms developing at anything other than a slight chance considering conditions look MUCH better across the pond in France. 

[Storms and Convective discussion - April 2024]

Showers galore later based on AROME 

[Storms and Convective discussion - November 2023 onwards]

 Sprites

Sadly not this was just one of the Weather Watcher images I found searching through - bloody wish I was though 

[Storms and Convective discussion - November 2023 onwards]

My report for Church Stowe

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

Church Stowe, Northamptonshire

Largest hail I've seen for March 

[Storms and Convective discussion - November 2023 onwards]

 Dxnielwashere

The Tornado and Storm Research Organisation (TORRO)

WWW.TORRO.ORG.UK

---

TORRO is a privately-supported research body specialising in severe convective weather in Britain and Ireland

You can fill in a report here 

[August 2022]

7th  - 14th August had 120.7 hours at Shoeburyness, an average of 13.4 hours per day.

One of the best periods of weather that I can remember recently as well as being very warm, avg max here in Herne Bay was 24.6C.

A selection of some of the pictures I took during that period are here.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

  @Eagle Eye

 

That very strong Pacific jet is certainly a show for how strong the +MT event currently is 

Let's just hope MJO passes through the maritime barrier and doesn't 'konk' out 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

I was wondering where the ice warning was!

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

96 & 120 FAX 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, Scott Ingham said:

Well the chances are it will not be that extreme!! Obviously I’m not forecasting that hahaha but it has the same ingredients! What it will be if it plays out is widespread 20cm+ in my opinion

We can only hope aye 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

6 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

That chart is biblical in regards to snowstorms I absolutely agree 1881! This event could be insane for someone (if it plays out this way of course as it will head south after without thaw!) Fair play to Tamara this run is very 1979/79 actually!

Wouldn't really say 1881 lol, very doubtful there'd be 24 inches of snow on the Sussex coast and 34 inches of snow on the Isle of Wight lol? It sure does look like a proper snow dump for someone but wouldn't say 1881 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

0.9C here in Herne Bay about 5 minutes walk from the coast now after this shower

 

 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

 

 

Snow videos from Birchington

 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Was still snowing when I left Birchington and has started up again in Herne Bay, very nice

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Sleety snow here

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

1 minute ago, Johnp said:

Out of interest, why would the Pacific high impact the Greenland High? I thought it would help if anything. 

Too strong and it could become the more 'dominant' high as it sucks away heights from Greenland

This GIF from ECM shows it well

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

3 minutes ago, Southern Storm said:

It definitely is, someone In Ivybridge has posted a video that looks to be more snow than sleet, if you are on Facebook have a look at the southern UK Storm chaser page 

May be the same person that's faked a tornado in their back garden a few times if it's a certain Crook  

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Nacreous clouds yesterday

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

Sleet & ice pellets all night here in Herne Bay.

Added thundersleet too which I've attached a video of 

 

 

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

Graupel at 16:20 earlier

 

 

[Solar and Aurora Activity Chat]

Aurora tonight at 1826

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

2 minutes ago, MJB said:

192 , 216 & 240 Mean ( ECM ) 

 

That looks to be 12z? ECM means normally start rolling out in half an hour or so

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

3 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Just a thought.. but.. 

Assuming this blocking signal becomes self perpetuating and lasts until the next MJO wave is able to help strengthen that signal further, we could be looking at a pretty unbelievable December from a winter & cold perspective. 

But then again I was suggesting a return to mild 10 minutes ago so, who knows!

I expect December 2015 will now quickly return 

[Teleconnections - Interactions and Impact]

I certainly need to scratch up my crumbs of knowledge on the GSDM so quite happy on the prospect of this becoming more active 

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

32 minutes ago, Hoghtonwhite said:

No one or any model predicted December 2010 mate. Northerlies were only picked up 5 days in advance. Similar to now. Impossible to know what’s gonna happen after this weekend. 

ECM Mean from 18th November 2010