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Jamie M

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Everything posted by Jamie M

  1. CW Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 19 Sep 2021 - 05:59 UTC Mon 20 Sep 2021 ISSUED 07:49 UTC Sun 19 Sep 2021 ISSUED BY: Dan The main focus on Sunday will be associated with slow-moving heavy downpours in east/southeast England. Low-level convergence is expected to develop through the day as surface heating encourages strengthening onshore flow, coupled with a frontal boundary advancing from the west. If sufficient heating can occur, likely yielding up to 500 J/kg CAPE, heavy showers may begin to develop from early afternoon onwards. Forecast profiles suggest warm air aloft (above 500mb) may limit the height of most convective cloud to around 20,000ft, but this is still sufficiently tall for some lightning strikes. While CAPE of <500 J/kg may appear rather low, this is in part due to it being confined to the lowest ~6km of the troposphere (rather than all the way to the tropopause) and so this in conjunction with PWAT of up to ~33mm will still likely lead to efficient rain producers and the threat of locally large rainfall totals - especially when coupled with generally weak flow through the cloud-bearing layer leading to slow-moving downpours. Showers/storms will tend to pulse up and down, with daughter cells developing nearby on outflow boundaries. The main hazard is local surface water flooding, hence a SVR has been introduced, even if not much lightning occurs. Chances are numerous heavy showers develop, perhaps with limited lightning activity - but a low-end SLGT has been introduced. Showers will slowly weaken in intensity during the mid-late evening, but further outbreaks of showery rain are likely in similar locations through the night hours, exacerbating already wet ground in places. Elsewhere, a few isolated lightning strikes may be possible from pulses of showery rain moving northeastwards during the morning hours, and with scattered showers that follow into Ireland and western Scotland during the afternoon hours - albeit the risk is rather low in any one location.
  2. Shocked at how little rain there was here. Was expecting a good mm or two not 0.1. 0.4 mm so far for the monthly total, makes you wonder how much rain is going to fall for the rest of this month since high pressure seems to be king.
  3. An exceptionally wet night from the 20th to the 21st of September 1973 brought a lot of rainfall within such a short amount of time to the normally dry parts of E Kent. No rain fell at Herne Bay for 38 days at 09z from the 9th of August to the 15th. Grand total of 15.2 mm during August so such a substantial amount of rainfall was quite shocking. 11.1 mm at Manston, compared to 253 mm in September. Herne Bay supposedly recorded 2.25" within 15 minutes on the 15th according to COL but can only seem to find 36 mm on the official station? This storm looks to be the same '5-hour storm' reported by an observer at Gillingham. 44.1 mm at Manston during the 'four-hour storm'. Majority of the rainfall came from storms that were reported between 0400 and 0600 bundled in with the already very heavy rainfall. 23 mm in 15 minutes at its peak. It was even wetter still later on in the month with a further inch of rain in Thanet on the 23rd. West Stourmouth had the highest daily rainfall total seen anywhere in the SE since before 1865. 32 weather stations recorded over 100 mm. The Thanet Times lists 7 inches of rainfall falling at Manston over a period of 10 hours with Force 10 winds. Faversham 99 mm Whitstable 106 mm Herne Bay 120 mm Anvil Green 107 mm West Stourmouth 191 mm (September daily rainfall record which still stands) Margate 172 mm Manston 161 mm Minster 151 mm Ashford 167 mm Dover 77 mm Wye 128 mm Just to list a few. Canterbury Road in Westgate-on-Sea was severely flooded and was where a woman tragically drowned as she lived in a ground floor flat that quickly filled with water. 2,000 turkeys drowned on a farm in Monkton. Landslide at Minster caused railway lines to be shut between there and Ramsgate. Shops didn't open in Ramsgate due to the flooding. Parts of Margate, Broadstairs, Birchington, Westgate and Ramsgate were all severely flooded. All in all, a tremendous event which likely won't be repeated in the SE for many years and a final stop to a drought. Newspaper clippings from the Thanet Times below. And a few more pictures from Facebook (Margate Local & Family History) Further snipping from Birmingham Daily Post.
  4. 19.5c here at 11 pm. Certainly a grim night for sleeping! Temperature for 11 pm at nearby Manston is at 21.6c
  5. Wow. Decent sunset there! Might get a good light show from there!
  6. Never thought the most thundery month I'd have this year would be in May. 5 days in May, 2 days in June, 2 days in July, 1 day in August. 2/10 of those days were from storms from across the channel which is a change from the constant crossers that seem to happen here. Can't dismiss the odd thundery squall through this autumn but not had one in a while! Best shot from this year below:
  7. Gave a bit of flooding at the station. Heard things about roads being flooded too which is hardly surprising.
  8. I'll have to check if webcam motion detected anything but was watching it flash away on the live feed. Out of the area at the moment but 46.4 mm of rain fell, highest I've recorded since I set up the station in Jan 2020. 34.9 mm of that within an hour from 0436z to 0536z.
  9. Using @BruenSryan's summer index, I worked out this summer so far and its rankings. June 2021 was 38th worst in the series going back to 1935 from Manston at 26.061994750656 July 2021 was 115th worst in the series going back to 1935 from Manston at 32.544170688341 Still not as bad as the likes of June 2016 (18.000052493438) & August 2010 (18.978282956566) which both stood at 3rd and 6th worst. Unbroken series graph above ^
  10. My report for Loose WWW.BBC.CO.UK Loose, Kent Another funnel in Maidstone.
  11. My report for Tenterden WWW.BBC.CO.UK Tenterden, Kent Bit wet in Tenterden
  12. Was about to come on here and mention it. Had someone message me about 'biblical rain' in Woodchurch and those guesstimates look nasty!
  13. Never seen anything like it from a timelapse. Convergence lines are fascinating to be under!
  14. This probably tops off one of the most bizarre things I've seen through timelapsing the sky. Two shelf clouds meeting, stopping then one turning back? Potty. Untitled.mp4
  15. It looks like I caught some sort of rotation/shelf mashup earlier. Not entirely sure quite what was happening but there we are! merge.mp4
  16. My report for Preston WWW.BBC.CO.UK Preston, Kent Brilliant funnel from outside of Canterbury, might of touched down but can never tell going off one picture. Another funnel from Maidstone too.
  17. Forgot that my webcam did timelapses to accompany it as well. Looking W to N but predominantly NW. No obvious rotation apart from a bit of scud but seems to gain a sort of tail around 4 seconds in but probably another thing teasing. I'd of got better shots of that if I wasn't cowering under a shelter! 1_TimeLapse_2021-07-31_15-49-34.mp4
  18. This might be a spammy post full of things but rather do it like this then in separate chunks clogging this thread up. First look in the distance as I walked it down to Hampton Pier to do my own mini 'storm chase': Video and photo for when I walked it down a bit further past the play park looking towards Whitstable and Studd Hill: 20210731_154951.mp4 I feel like this is the only photo I have that truly shows just how dark it was looking over towards Sheppey! More video looking towards Sheppey as it drifted towards me accompanied by some structure in front of it and the shelter you can see that I hid in! 20210731_160226.mp4 More video from when the storm began to hit: 20210731_160517.mp4 Storm really then began to come in after a brief CG close off the shore with the wind picking up tremendously afterward so dashed it to the shelter: Drowned out rumble of thunder can be heard from about 8 seconds in but wind really does kill the audio: 20210731_160940.mp4 Storm begins to hit with a loud but again drowned out close rumble of thunder: 20210731_161204.mp4 Rain begins to gradually pick up and can be seen getting heavier: 20210731_161355.mp4 More of a show of the constant heavy rain: 20210731_161454.mp4 Peak intensity of the rainfall, really was throwing it down with pictures accompanying: 20210731_161550.mp4 20210731_161656.mp4 Weird old looking sky after it finally calmed down, no rotation but certainly was very odd: Some shots of the Canterbury cell and the cell that went over: Then decided to leg it home and caught this brief shot of lightning whilst doing a good sprint home:
  19. No funnels were there when I was looking from my angle. I'll send a few videos in a minute but it absolutely threw it down.
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