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  1. Ok maybe not very mild, but still above average temperatures and southern winds. I was hoping that the jet stream would stay low as we head into the Christmas period. Instead these charts would produce south/south-western winds (high pressure over Spain to blame), rain and 8-9C. Still a long way away, so I'm hoping the charts change as we get nearer and the pattern flattens out to give us a lower jet stream. GFS ensembles are showing a gradual return to colder conditions after the milder blip.
  2. I will be very surprised if I even see sleet in Edinburgh. Haven't seen a single snowflake so far, not even sleet.
  3. I was mainly referring to gfs outputs that have consistently been showing very mild temperatures in the long term. I bet ecmwf swings round too this evening
  4. Seriously doubt it. Especially with the high pressure annoyingly sitting over spain and pushing north. Wet, windy and very mild looking increasingly likely as we head into the second half of december
  5. With temperatures of 4-5C all day tomorrow I doubt we will be seeing any snow in Edinburgh or elsewhere on lower ground. Snow much more likely from around 200m above sea level
  6. Reasonable chances of seeing snow over the coming weeks for some parts of scotland, as long as the jet stream stays low. Even in Edinburgh we got lots of snow during january 2018 from westerlies. My main concern is that the HP over spain will push north and keep us on the wet and mild side of things, even up in Scotland :(
  7. Loving the seasonal weather. Even in Edinburgh city centre frost has resisted the whole day both yesterday and today. Now a milder blip before colder conditions return (hopefully)
  8. Can't complain about the long-term outlook. There is a general tendency pointing towards cold zonality after the high pressure collapses next week. Ideal conditions for scottish ski resorts in the run up to christmas and will definitely feel seasonal on lower ground. I'm just happy to not see endless raging south-westerlies on the model outputs, which is always a risk in December.
  9. Looking at models, in particular the gfs ensembles, I'm seeing plenty of opportunities for cold weather through the first half of December, even with a zonal setup. The models could genuinely be a lot worse with raging southwesterlies for the next two weeks
  10. Thanks for the link, never knew about that table with all the GEFS members. Strange how low the ground temperatures are compared to the 850 temps that would suggest pretty average conditions for November.
  11. Gfs 06 ensembles for Edinburgh, roughly from the 19th temperatures should rise back up to seasonal averages or even slightly above (red line=seasonal average and white line=average of the ensembles).
  12. The outlook from Monday onwards suggests milder and wetter weather which could help compensate for the lower than average temperatures up to date.
  13. Yep, we have definitely had more eastern winds than usual for this time of the year and as a result the rainfall in eastern scotland has been relentless at times (especially today). Still better than the usual south-westerlies. If the weather pattern holds on, we should gradually tap into much colder air to the east as winter approaches and then things could get more interesting
  14. It will feel more like December than November over the next 10 days. Ensembles for Edinburgh. And yes, a chance of snow if the easterly winds manage to pull in some even colder air from Scandinavia. Unfortunately, Metoffice and bbc are predicting a return to south-westerlies by the end of november and above average temperatures
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