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edinburgh_1992

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  1. It did indeed snow for about an hour between 19.30 and 20.30. Even started settling on the cars parked outside. Ground temperatures were low enough all day, all we needed was for the 850hpa temps to fall to zero and this was predicted to happen around 7-8 o'clock this evening.
  2. Have patience, at around 7 I reckon it's going to turn to snow for a bit (in Edinburgh). And if heavy enough, it might even accumulate on the ground. So far showers have been very light, I'm hoping that they intensify over the coming hours
  3. Light rain in central Edinburgh, just 1.5C. Uppers are at their warmest now, but appear to drop later on today. Therefore iy think rain will gradually turn into sleet after 18.00, maybe even earlier
  4. I've given up on it, don't think it's going to snow in Edinburgh. Upper temperatures are shooting up to +3 right above the city tomorrow afternoon, so if it snows I will be very surprised. Rain could potentially turn back into sleet/wet now through the night into sunday if ground temperatures stay low enough There could also be a couple of flurries around midday tomorrow. But that's about as interesting as it gets. Then we're back to mild and wet, with temps up to 10 degrees on tuesday :( Interesting developments are appearing on the models around Christmas
  5. Rain in Edinburgh is looking more and more likely. Currie has better chances I think, unfortunately I'm right in the city centre so I don't think we'll see anything. We could see a few flakes floating around on Friday night and Saturday morning
  6. The Cairngorms are going to be submerged by snow. Even considering a trip up there on Sunday, just to have some wintry atmosphere before the long mild and wet run up to Christmas
  7. Feeling less optimistic to be honest. Ecmwf 12 is a downgrade, and gfs18 and GFS parallel 18 are showing uppers way too warm for snow. Looking at this for Saturday morning, there seems to be a pocket of warm air right above Edinburgh. Quite a weird situation, there is still time for it to be changed (hopefully!). Worst case scenario, we'll be getting a lot of cold rain as ground temperatures stay close to freezing throughout Saturday.
  8. Personally I'm very interested in the developments for this weekend. There is a fair chance that the colder air could last well into Sunday over Scotland and this could potentially bring a whole day of snow on Saturday to many.
  9. Same in Edinburgh. I'm still optimistic for Saturday. I use an Italian website to see ecmwf forecasts, it's actually quite accurate and has been right on numerous occasions where metoffice and BBC have failed. It also shows the height of the 0°C isotherm and the snow level. Quite unusually, sea level temperatures are set to remain close to zero even though the 0°C level rises temporarily to over 2000 metres. If the 850temps manage to stay below zero, snow could continue throughout the day.
  10. Snow at low levels in Scotland is quite rare, but our odds are still much better than London's. Especially with the heat island created by the city. So I guess we should consider ourselves lucky. Is anyone else from the Edinburgh area here? GFS 18 not looking great, but I'm still confident that it will change. Let's hope to see some exciting updates tomorrow
  11. Yes, I feel like I'm on my own in that thread. I hope it snows just in Scotland next weekend with rain in England so I can annoy them with some snowy pics
  12. We'll see, the models are showing lower 850 temps with every run. If we manage to get -7/-8 (ecmwf is almost there) and a slightly more easterly flow, nothing should be excluded. Especially considering that sea temperatures are still quite warm. I find that models often underestimate lake effect snow. During the mid November "easterly", even though forecasts and models were showing very weak precipitation, here in Edinburgh we had some pretty hefty showers moving in. Unfortunately it wasn't cold enough for anything wintry. The latest ecmwf run is perfect for Scotland, with colder air holding onto us throughout Saturday and Sunday, coupled with heavy snow. Let's hope the run gets confirmed tomorrow, it's not miles away. I think models like GFS are over-estimating the Atlantic, it keeps getting pushed back and I reckon that Scotland can hold onto the cold air for longer
  13. I think eastern areas could see some snow showers already on Thursday in the eastern flow from "lake effect". Then Friday-Saturday we could see more widespread snow or sleet, but at the moment this remains very uncertain
  14. Seems like there's a pretty decent chance of seeing some snow in Scotland. Especially as the cold flow looks like it will continue well into Saturday up here, whilst milder air sets into England. I'd say about 50%. If the eastern flow is cold enough, we could even see some wintry showers feeding in off the north sea on Thursday-Friday
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