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Turnedoutniceagain

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Posts posted by Turnedoutniceagain

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Winter Hill said:

    Unbelievable this place sometimes. 
    emotions have gone from jubilation to Wrist slashing all for a T+168 chart, 1 week away.  

    Lots of people seem to have forgotten that they're looking at computer generated predictions - nothing is cast iron. Chill out, there's literally nothing you can do about the upcoming cold spell. 

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    21 minutes ago, Uncertainty said:

    12zs overall are the best suite yet for longevity. 

    To illustrate, here are some highlights:

    1) Ecm produces its best op run for what seems like ages, with a boxed in GH

    image.thumb.png.ab7d1a63821c7275991439ce9c83c48f.png

     

    2) JMA brings a snowstorm to S England

    image.thumb.gif.2f451c0288d7bca944d20b38cc23a805.gif
     

    3) GFS 

    image.thumb.png.d7070449bbcdef45cf9f53d10a92af66.png

    Beautiful wedge action 

    4) GEM, words not required

    image.thumb.png.eec7bd3bca398947a4036186a5ac2a69.png

    5) EPS mean, reverses the flattening trend from the last few runs and the anomalies are very good and very reminiscent of the seasonals.

    image.thumb.png.e9075d4d08ba8f2150ab23ff2f7ebe01.png

    Most importantly, the following shift in the eps mean in the extended does not do it justice! It’s one of the bigger ones I’ve seen ant that range. Although the flip from mostly mild swerlies to a dipole blocked/flatter set is still clear.

    12z

    image.thumb.png.2273ca03f0df37735c8dec95f566a61a.png


    0z

    image.thumb.png.6882d5d25da605c2116ee786a723f795.png


    When you look through the members, the flip to ‘longevity’ is quite remarkable.

    Overall, a poor night for mildies, cockle warmers and gas bills tonight! Their time will come, but this evening is one for the 🥶 crew…

     

     

    The GEM is a thing of beauty

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    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Rob 79812010 said:

    Blimey, best charts for years, bbc and met and netweather forecasts all positive, so much potential. Shouldn't we be more excited?? Or are we hedging our bets as we've 'seen it all before'. Thing is, we have seen it all before with the models but often find the forecasters don't buy into it. They are now!!!

    I'm still skeptical. I remember the great E'ly of Jan/Feb' 2006 - potentially an event to rival 1963 - a monster that literally disappeared from the charts with 36hrs to go. I'm still having counselling. 

    • Like 29
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    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    25 minutes ago, Jacob said:

    One possibility in the long term is that we could get proper cold in December but we get stuck under high pressure which leaves us with getting cold weather but no snow which would be a disappointment 

    This is the best winter weather - high pressure, clear days, freezing nights. Perfect 

    • Like 12
    • Thanks 1
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