Easton Luna Boys

Hi Richard, I'm not sure how old you are, but to say it has been one of the top wintry periods in your life, really?? For those that saw anything, it was a band of heavy snow showers that hit a small but densely populated area of the SE, followed by 8 days of cold and frosty but very dry weather which obviously kept the white stuff around for longer than a few days which is usually the case. But to say it's in the top 10, I'd have to dispute that.

Yes, always the way, but not quite as bad as on the other side; venturing into their Model Output Discussion forum this morning you'd have thought you were in the Moaning Thread; it was full of toys and dummy throwing and unsavoury in-fighting attacks on users who predicted this upcoming mild spell when others either refused to see it, or were consumed with the usual rose tinted cold model bias. Some of the so called self proclaimed experts on there really should know better. No wonder members have left in their droves. A shell of its former self.

Yes, and despite the models 5 days ago showing promising precipitation more widely, all we have is temps around zero in a bone dry northerly. Looks like this event has been over hyped like a Meghan and Harry expose.

Yes, as I mentioned yesterday, wise heads and caution are needed as ever. We go through this every year with the "greatest charts I've ever seen..." posts making their annual appearance. It's been no different since 2001 on this and the other site. Some forget that we are a temperate - not continental climate! At least the energy bills won't be put under too much strain

Wiser heads know not to get over excited so far out. You need CMA @ 24... and it can STILL go wrong at that timescale.

You seriously think that the climate of 4 billion years has changed "massively" in 12 years???

For the sake of those of us who have to pay our energy bills, let's hope not

Yes, sorry you're right. I must have thought for a minute that we didn't have cross model agreement at 144...

Think some are falling into the perennial trap of over-egging the model pudding. Far from CMA here. The continent has been mild and with SSTs higher than average, expect things to become tempered as we move through the week to next weekend. Hopefully so as unless you live at home with parents or don't have to worry about the cost of energy, a cold spell is the last thing any of us needs.

Well they most likely won't be wrong in the mdorn eara. Apart from a heads or tails SSW over the last several years, there really has been nothing to write home about in terms of cold and snow. Long may that continue as this kind of weather is excellent for getting out and about. And with the increase in energy costs and lower mortality rates (Fact; cold weather kills more people than extreme heat) then it's a win win all round

Yes, although all about perspective and perception of course. The positives are that there will be a lot of usable weather to get ahead with all of those garden jobs before the buds of Spring. Excellent conditions for walking and of course, the real boon is that there won't be a particularly onerous burden on our heating systems, be that central or otherwise, so cheaper bills all round. Great for old folk and drivers alike

Tbh I think more caution needs to be applied for those south of the midlands. Some are banking -10 uppers on a 'clean' Easterly feed but at this range, it's far from certain. There's just too much warmer air in the mix to our south east. Get more of a SE feed and the likes of Kent could be more concerned about flooding rather than the white stuff. Remember; cross model agreement is <T48!

Or Feb 19 all over again When it comes to SSW be careful what you wish for!

But it's not like we haven't been here before! I'm not sure why there is genuine shock and disappointment here? The golden rules had not yet been set; cross model agreement @144. Confidence in <-5 uppers (NOT marginal).

C'mon, how many times have we spoken about this; they are all much of a muchness - one will outperform the other (marginally) only to have its statistical wings clipped by its competitor the next day. NAVGEM anyone?

Yes, and I mentioned this on the other side. While there's certainly a fair bit of interest, there is STILL a lot of inconsistency; ECM/GFS doing their best hokey cokey dance steps (you put your left model in, your right model out...). If there's one thing we've learnt over the years it's to ignore the lack of model alignment at our peril. 144 will be the first big hurdle and then its baby steps from there - and I'm afraid that the child gate is still firmly in the locked position at the moment. And for those already talking about a second phase warming, before we even know the outcome of the first...remember we've been here before.

Tbf, it is was similar on the 'other side' regarding some ignoring the perils of marginal uppers. Although similarly, there were also a number of us acolytes urging caution! You would have thought we were going into a guaranteed Jan '87 the way some posters were reacting! 500 times bitten, 501 shy

Ah yes, I thought this would get mentioned; effectively a "leaves on the line" trope. If people are seriously going to use the isobars as an exact "source" of the easterly in early January and blame this for the reason that the uppers weren't cold enough for snow in lowland UK, then we have a problem. If anyone can tell me the last time we had such perfect synoptics as a E/NE airflow that delivered marginal...no sorry - cold rain in early January in the last 30 years, I will be amazed, because I can't find a persuasive enough example. The fact remains; mainland Europe simply isn't cold enough at present. If it was, I think even the most pessimistic of us would appreciate that this set-up would have delivered a lot more snow over a wider region of the country.

You have hit the nail on the head. Time and time again, the determination to hunt for cold and snow means that many ignore the tell tale signs that are there in all of the NWP. Over the last week or so, there has been enough content about 850s and ssw to compete with the old testament in terms of volume. I have been astonished by the number of posters not able to read the upper temps correctly, effectively dismissing the fact that the 850 temps looked marginal (at best). We weren't even seeing solid -5s let alone -10s! And mainland Europe simply wasn't cold enough in any E/NE flow. And as for the fabled SSW, when will people learn? It is NOT the nirvana to cold and snow, with only a 66% chance of the British Isles being impacted by the stratospheric reactions anyway - and that includes both going colder AND significantly milder. Remember Feb '19? Be careful what you wish for!

But we haven't seen strong northern blocking in recent springs and summers! In fact, the last 2 years have produced some of the best summer weather I can remember for a long time. This winter for many has been excellent; lack of frosts and ice, meaning less hazardous driving conditions. Milder air meaning the central heating has not been on as much and being able to go on very pleasant long walks without feeling chilled to the bone. I for one hope that this is a continuation of a warming trend that makes our climate far more enjoyable; warmer summers, milder winters. Let's see if the Euro high can stick around for the next 6 weeks and it really will be a classic winter to remember!

Yes, just need it to slip slap bang over us for an extended spell of clear, dry calm conditions, with the possibility of some faux cold for the cold boosters to look forward to. Likelihood though will be an infiltration of more humid air into the mix, giving a dirty high. Both options though are appealing to me.

Completely agree. Last February was fantastic for a taste of early Spring warmth, enabling me to get numerous jobs done in the garden. More of the same please And with each evening getting lighter as winter rapidly slips away, thoughts definitely turn to spring

Even if the Bartlett/Euro gives way, it is by no means a given that it will lead to anything cold. If the Atlantic becomes more active, it will be storms that we should be more concerned about.

I don't see it as anything other than a waking up of the jet stream with Atlantic fronts bringing wind and rain I'm afraid. A reset zonal pattern all the way with temps hovering around average, so yes - a cooling down of sorts but that's the best on offer.

This is something that has been mooted on many occasions on different forums about warm spells in late winter/early Spring, scuppering our chances of a decent summer. There is of course no correlation with many previous seasons having gone either way, with no direct causitive link. Mother Nature doesn't deal in IOUs! If we get an early taste of Spring proper, then bring it on I say. It could 'just' be that we are entering a climatological phase where we are in a warming period (AGW or otherwise) and regardless of the fact that we had an incredible Spring/Summer last year, we could see pleasant conditions again this year? I don't expect record breaking weather like last year, but just a decent summer overall would suit many of us I'm sure.