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Easton Luna Boys

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  1. This is something that has been mooted on many occasions on different forums about warm spells in late winter/early Spring, scuppering our chances of a decent summer. There is of course no correlation with many previous seasons having gone either way, with no direct causitive link. Mother Nature doesn't deal in IOUs! If we get an early taste of Spring proper, then bring it on I say. It could 'just' be that we are entering a climatological phase where we are in a warming period (AGW or otherwise) and regardless of the fact that we had an incredible Spring/Summer last year, we could see pleasant conditions again this year? I don't expect record breaking weather like last year, but just a decent summer overall would suit many of us I'm sure.
  2. I think it was the disdain and arrogance aired by some if you dared disagree with their cold gospel that was most irritating. The constant talk of background signals and teleconnections since the end of November and war and peace ramblings that never seemed to make their point, in the end came to nothing. Despite a positive NAO, no proper signs of HLB, pulses of eastern seaboard cyclogenesis and a dominant AZH, we were told that we were mildmongering, when in fact, we were just being completely realistic and saying it like it was. I'd like to think that some of next year's winter model watchers will cut a more mature, solemn, humble and gracious figure, as opposed to a holier than thou piety, but I fear we may have to wait some time for that!
  3. I'm sure you don't need me to tell you it's the 61/90 stats that count as far as the WMO is concerned, so yes, 2 out of 2 so far re above average CETs. I just think the Meto need to be held to account for their very poor 30 dayers. They seem to get worse each year and the wording is appalling, eg; "high chance of a cold spell in Mid February, but confidence is low..." I mean, that is just farcical! I really do wonder about the mythical "secret data" that they allegedly have access to, that the great unwashed don't.
  4. But if Feb does come into the milder category, then it will mean that ALL 3 winter months will have had a higher than average CET. Tell me; where did any of the forecast organisations predict that Personally, I think the Meto Long range has been shocking. Did they just keep throwing the dice on the hopeful effects of the SSW? One thing we can learn from this winter, is that despite all the talk about background signals and SSWs our understanding is still very limited in these areas.
  5. Agree with this. Beyond that, I just feel some are looking far too hard for something that isn't realistically there. Meanwhile the PV ravages North America. Like the ol' sayin' goes; we were just livin' on the wrong side of the tracks...
  6. You've hit the nail on the head with this. Writing essays about how the colder, snowier weather WILL arrive imminently, but then writing another essay to explain why it hasn't yet happened and that it's just been pushed back (again) only creates credibility issues. If people held their hands up and were completely honest when they get things wrong, then this place would be all the better for it. We need to be more realistic about our expectations. Remember, it's only the weather
  7. Do you spot the recurring theme here? Everything has continued to be pushed further and further back, despite favourable 'background signals'. I stand by my opinion that we still know too little about teleconnections and upper level factors and are rolling dice to an extent hoping for a double 6. The noise has apparently been promising since late November, but you only have to look at the score sheet to see who's winning. Also, ask yourself the question; if we have such a good grasp of these background signals, then why the volte face on Friday that caught so many off guard? (It's a rhetorical question and doesn't require an excuse as to why everything has been pushed further back). So, back to day 10. Have a good working week everybody!
  8. Indeed, however, we are like little boys trying to fly and control sophisticated billion dollar, high-tech, supersonic fighter jets without the manual or the aviation experience. We've a long way to go
  9. My point is, what does the term 'background signals' actually mean? We might as well say 'dark arts' which due to our general lack of understanding of the complexities of the atmosphere, is more apt. How can you say that? I hear you ask; well, the fact that we have been hearing about these signals since November, and despite a well above average December, a benign, largely HP dominated January, with the majority of the UK still not having seen a flake of snow, the Scottish ski resorts desperate for a decent fall, you have to ask the uncomfortable question, what does the term actually mean? It's all well and good some now wanting to rewrite the many many volumous pages on this forum of the last 8 weeks and start to talk about a backloaded winter instead - just for fun or otherwise, but sometimes, to suit their bias, people can just try too hard to will something that wasn't really there in the first place. None of us are sure what February will bring, but remember, it's only the weather after all.
  10. We've been hearing about background noise since November now. It's just that; background noise. We've also seen 'decent' charts (from a cold perspective) which have not come to anything. Hope springs eternal - actually, I'd rather Spring springs eternal!
  11. At least you're man enough to admit it Steve. Maybe something in February will deliver.
  12. Misleading - all major models were NOT in agreement and most certainly not in the realistic time frame! The positives from all of this are that there will be some major lessons learnt from this in terms of; 1) No single model can claim kudos, supreme status - the verification stats prove they are much of a muchness. 2) It was never within the magic marker of T96, so should we really be surprised? 3) If one of the big 3 shows mild (less cold), it will most likely be right 4) SSW...not always the path to glory...
  13. Lol, never mind UKMO, it's ICON that we should all bow to now. You couldn't make it up Been too busy with work these last few days to study the form horse in any detail, but the old fisherman's folklore saying of 'if harmony at T96 ain't in sight, then the models ain't likely to be right' comes to mind. Seriously though, we've never had cross model agreement in the realistic time frame, and over reliance on a sketchy arctic high with an ominous, looming AZH was always going to be playing Russian roulette. So once again, it's back to day 10 (another old fisherman's saying ) There'll be some out of kilter media reports today that might look a bit premature in their backing of proper sustained cold, who wished they'd held back. Mind you, Russian roulette is a funny old game and who knows what this evening's 18z will bring, however, I think we are now starting to see at best, a blended solution that will be on the less cold side, but still chilly nonetheless. Beyond that, we are all clueless. Remember, it's only a hobby
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