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Easton Luna Boys

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  1. But we haven't seen strong northern blocking in recent springs and summers! In fact, the last 2 years have produced some of the best summer weather I can remember for a long time. This winter for many has been excellent; lack of frosts and ice, meaning less hazardous driving conditions. Milder air meaning the central heating has not been on as much and being able to go on very pleasant long walks without feeling chilled to the bone. I for one hope that this is a continuation of a warming trend that makes our climate far more enjoyable; warmer summers, milder winters. Let's see if t
  2. Yes, just need it to slip slap bang over us for an extended spell of clear, dry calm conditions, with the possibility of some faux cold for the cold boosters to look forward to. Likelihood though will be an infiltration of more humid air into the mix, giving a dirty high. Both options though are appealing to me.
  3. Completely agree. Last February was fantastic for a taste of early Spring warmth, enabling me to get numerous jobs done in the garden. More of the same please ? And with each evening getting lighter as winter rapidly slips away, thoughts definitely turn to spring ?
  4. Even if the Bartlett/Euro gives way, it is by no means a given that it will lead to anything cold. If the Atlantic becomes more active, it will be storms that we should be more concerned about.
  5. I don't see it as anything other than a waking up of the jet stream with Atlantic fronts bringing wind and rain I'm afraid. A reset zonal pattern all the way with temps hovering around average, so yes - a cooling down of sorts but that's the best on offer.
  6. This is something that has been mooted on many occasions on different forums about warm spells in late winter/early Spring, scuppering our chances of a decent summer. There is of course no correlation with many previous seasons having gone either way, with no direct causitive link. Mother Nature doesn't deal in IOUs! If we get an early taste of Spring proper, then bring it on I say. It could 'just' be that we are entering a climatological phase where we are in a warming period (AGW or otherwise) and regardless of the fact that we had an incredible Spring/Summer last year, we could see pl
  7. I think it was the disdain and arrogance aired by some if you dared disagree with their cold gospel that was most irritating. The constant talk of background signals and teleconnections since the end of November and war and peace ramblings that never seemed to make their point, in the end came to nothing. Despite a positive NAO, no proper signs of HLB, pulses of eastern seaboard cyclogenesis and a dominant AZH, we were told that we were mildmongering, when in fact, we were just being completely realistic and saying it like it was. I'd like to think that some of next year's winter model w
  8. I'm sure you don't need me to tell you it's the 61/90 stats that count as far as the WMO is concerned, so yes, 2 out of 2 so far re above average CETs. I just think the Meto need to be held to account for their very poor 30 dayers. They seem to get worse each year and the wording is appalling, eg; "high chance of a cold spell in Mid February, but confidence is low..." I mean, that is just farcical! I really do wonder about the mythical "secret data" that they allegedly have access to, that the great unwashed don't.
  9. But if Feb does come into the milder category, then it will mean that ALL 3 winter months will have had a higher than average CET. Tell me; where did any of the forecast organisations predict that ? Personally, I think the Meto Long range has been shocking. Did they just keep throwing the dice on the hopeful effects of the SSW? One thing we can learn from this winter, is that despite all the talk about background signals and SSWs our understanding is still very limited in these areas.
  10. Agree with this. Beyond that, I just feel some are looking far too hard for something that isn't realistically there. Meanwhile the PV ravages North America. Like the ol' sayin' goes; we were just livin' on the wrong side of the tracks...
  11. You've hit the nail on the head with this. Writing essays about how the colder, snowier weather WILL arrive imminently, but then writing another essay to explain why it hasn't yet happened and that it's just been pushed back (again) only creates credibility issues. If people held their hands up and were completely honest when they get things wrong, then this place would be all the better for it. We need to be more realistic about our expectations. Remember, it's only the weather ?
  12. Do you spot the recurring theme here? Everything has continued to be pushed further and further back, despite favourable 'background signals'. I stand by my opinion that we still know too little about teleconnections and upper level factors and are rolling dice to an extent hoping for a double 6. The noise has apparently been promising since late November, but you only have to look at the score sheet to see who's winning. Also, ask yourself the question; if we have such a good grasp of these background signals, then why the volte face on Friday that caught so many off guard? (I
  13. Indeed, however, we are like little boys trying to fly and control sophisticated billion dollar, high-tech, supersonic fighter jets without the manual or the aviation experience. We've a long way to go ?
  14. My point is, what does the term 'background signals' actually mean? We might as well say 'dark arts' which due to our general lack of understanding of the complexities of the atmosphere, is more apt. How can you say that? I hear you ask; well, the fact that we have been hearing about these signals since November, and despite a well above average December, a benign, largely HP dominated January, with the majority of the UK still not having seen a flake of snow, the Scottish ski resorts desperate for a decent fall, you have to ask the uncomfortable question, what does the term actually mean?
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