AtlanticFlamethrower

JACKONE, You missed me Quite close this month!

11.6C

BTW does anyone know if there is online data for moon's distance from the Earth for the past 100 years? I want to do a correlation with large Earthquakes. I've got the data for that, just need the moon data. Anyone can double-check Supermoon claims themselves.

They have (below). The government is covering-up for political reasons, which they can do for a while as long as the wind blows out to sea. The Russians tried to cover-up Chernobyl.

Look at this! If that's not a total meltdown 3000 ft mushroom cloud tell me what is. That's not superficial damage, that's the worst it gets.

This is what a nuclear meltdown of a reactor looks like Just "blowing off a bit of steam", huh? The lower than would be expected levels of radioactive caesium and iodine (which have been detected) is because the reactors are right on the pacific shoreline and the wind is going out to the big wide ocean. The official explanation won't last long if the wind turns direction though. Don't want any aftershocks or tsunamis to further endanger the brave technicians trying to cool the remaining four reactors at Fukushima.

Lunar and solar effects do not preclude plate tectonics. Nobody's claiming that. What is claimed is there is some affect, that plate tectonic tipping points could be "tipped" by external triggers, and that this is shown in the statistics (lunar and solar). An analogy could be someone shouting and causing an avalanche. The person who shouted didn't put the snow there and make it likely to fall, but the act of shouting was the trigger of the avalanche event. BTW - as per my edit, Piers Corbyn didn't say anything about HAARP.

Was the Earthquake triggered by HAARP (timed with Supermoon and solar flare - Piers Corbyn reckons so, that is the moon and solar, not the HAARP)?

Okay, this probably sounds dumb. Could you stop the reactor by dropping a large bomb on it? What would be more scary than this? The other four reactors next to it, popping one by one.

Nuclear fallout map http://www.youtube.com/user/unclewooly#p/u/1/PcWTIUKWn34 Massive Chernobyl event underway. Get this news out to as many Americans and Canadians as possible. Potassium iodide is taken as a defense against some forms of radiation poisoning. Media has been caught in a contradiction so could be in the process of a cover up until the plant is under-control. It's worrying that it's not yet under control.

6.3C

So chaos theory is an essential part of your religious value system? Those appear to be moral, rather than scientific arguments against finding patterns out of chaos. I know this is off topic; it's the end of the thread!

Chaos theory should not be used as a convenient excuse not to look for patterns. Although MB's forecast storm was way to the West of where he thought it would be he got the +ve NAO and strong storm near Britain bit right. Even knowing just that a month ahead can assist forecast. Britain has been battered by gales which left a man dead and caused damage and disruption to roads and buildings.

Thanks RJS and, Coast. RJS - is there any way you can simplify your analysis - or provide a simply paragraph summary? I can do correlations but when I read the thread in the evening my brain is often half-switched off and I can't give what you're saying the attention it warrants. Interesting that you think MB should keep at his method. Is there going to be another test date, I wonder? Oh - MB's forecast might not have gone as precisely hoped but it's windy outside... for the first time for quite a while. It's not a Great Storm but it's a little bit spooky!

4.5C

This is GFS chart for Feb 4, 6am. If that could come 12hr earlier and a little further south MB's Feb 3rd forecast might yet look accurate in detail, (as opposed to accurate in "NAO +ve pattern broadly correct", which is easier to do). An even better chart for MB was on the 12z GEM 12am, Feb 4th. Game back on?

Looks like the winds are going to come from the wrong direction on 3rd of February - SWly - but NAO +ve is right and these other charts would be reasonably helpful to someone starting to think about making a long range forecast. Not long before we know how the final correlations of RJS and MB stack up.

The deep low on the 18z has shifted very slightly East, directly north of Scotland. It now has a double core. The lower core swings furthest South and East. This double core low solution might help MB get it further South and East. Looking at 28 / 30 Jan Actual versus predicted, that's not bad if we are being uncharitable and assuming MB is making a complete guess, for his own amusement at our expense.

12z ECM doesn't look a match-up at all. The big low stays West of Iceland and then goes NW. MB needs it East of Iceland, preferably going SE.

Slightly better for MB? Red is where it needs to be. Nothing to get excited about but the way the GFS modelled the 12z PV is quite different to the way it modelled it on the 06z (wasn't there a deep low following this low on the 06z), so there may be slow, subtle but significant changes in timing and position to come. Not good enough but still enough to keep following the models.

The low East of Iceland needs to trend further East by a couple of hundred miles and a little South for the forecast to come right. At the moment on GFS, it gets that far then buggers of North. This doesn't require a major upgrade, but it definitely requires a small trend to move the low Eastwards whereas yesterday the trend was to move the low Westward, lowering the correlation with MB's target day February 3rd.

The models have now moved away from MB's scenario for 3rd February. It's looking windy in the north but very zonal and Westerly. The charts are fairly unremarkable looking and would be a forecast failure were it to stay like this. Perhaps the GFS will trend back to the more MB-like solutions as we get closer to the date.

You need to start a new thread for this. Your point has been made. Can this be the last time?

Here's the GFS 00z If MB accepts this challenge we should all - especially including those who know least about weather forecasting - have a go at drawing a map/give a precise synoptic forecast for this date.

No... next time we'll have a control with one of MB's critics, Pieman, you, Steve Murr, independently come up with their own specific forecast. We'll see who's closest. If it is all down to random chance, as you seem to think, you are all just as likely to get it right as MB. Or even more right. Ed: MB will pick the date and will ask us for our forecasts before he posts his. I may even have a go myself