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AtlanticFlamethrower

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Posts posted by AtlanticFlamethrower

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, AtlanticFlamethrower said:

    WFT is going on here. Someone explain. This wonderful, plump exciting snow-storm cell at last on an easterly trajectory coming right towards has just disintegrated in a few minutes.

    Now don't you give me that 'it's dry air' blather.

    Someone's up there in a plane with an anti-snow cloud seeder trying to spoil everyone's fun.

    wheresnowgo.png

    Crazy immediate disintegration. Looking at the netweather radar right now this isn't happening to showers that are coming on to land elsewhere in the UK. It only needed to get 14 miles inland to where I am. 

     

     

     

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    WFT is going on here. Someone explain. This wonderful, plump exciting snow-storm cell at last on an easterly trajectory coming right towards has just disintegrated in a few minutes.

    Now don't you give me that 'it's dry air' blather.

    Someone's up there in a plane with an anti-snow cloud seeder trying to spoil everyone's fun.

    wheresnowgo.png

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Have to say this 'Beast from the East' is rather underwhelming. 

    Only a few coastal edges have any appreciable snow which is because the wind trajectory has been north east not east or east north east.

    As the wind direction turns more easterly overnight we might get showers that penetrate further inland. There is barely any precipitation showing on the charts for my location but when we've had easterlies in the past it is because of more direct easterly feed and a conveyor belt of 'streamers'.  This conveyor-belt is right now only grazing the coast but hopefully the usual will happen once again on Wednesday even though it is not showing any PPN on the GFS.

     

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, AtlanticFlamethrower said:

    The South Woodham snow shield is very powerful. Showers have missed the town to the north and south by meters all day. Just a dusting here. There must be half a foot in Rayleigh and Rochford by now.

     

     

     

    South Woodham has finally had a direct hit from a passing shower.

    Interesting how it pepped-up just before it hit us - the relative heat island of this of the area must have aided convection just before hand. While other areas must be under quite a lot of snow from giant showers that aways missed us north and south, we were still 80% green and roofs were not completely covered. Now only the grass tips are showing.

    https://www.netweather.tv/live-weather/radar

    Fascinating to observe.

    snowpep.png

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    12z GFS returns us to a #BarbecueFriday with 8 degrees reached on the south coast, 4C dewpoints widespread, all rain.

    This could all change again with the next runs but it seems likely that for us to have any chance of a blizzard on the Friday we need to get widespread snow showers and lying snow established over Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, which could feedback into the data and change things.

     

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 hours ago, johnholmes said:

    I know it is the moan thread but is it not possible to be a touch more realistic even though your preference is for mild rather than cold?

    You took my post too seriously. I don't have a preference for mild. 

    Nothing wrong with quoting an interesting source of information and working in a mild interpretation that is probably not warranted. 

     

    • Like 1

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by AtlanticFlamethrower

    From the Model Thread

    Quote

     

    Those members getting anxious about the end of next weeks possible snow event should relax. Not only are recent GFS/ECM outputs likely to change being so far out (T+120) but by then the UK will be entrenched in bitterly cold surface temperature's which are notoriously difficult to budge once established. Look at it this way. We will be starting with maximum surface temperature's (end of next week) at or below freezing. Every km ^ the temperature drops by 6.5C. 850hpa is 1.5km ^, so the temperature will be 10C less than the surface, so roughly -10C. Then add in this morning's less cold 850hpa temperatures for next Friday (+8C). STILL minus at 850hpa so from ground upwards the air will be sub-zero. It will still mean what falls from the sky will be snow........ALL the way up. NO rain. To add thickness levels will be perfect for some really heavy snowfalls.

    Anyway, we have lots of snowfall to nowcast before then...... pointless looking at the snow forecast charts from now on. Better off watching the radar and satellite for real developments or looking at the latest FAX outputs.

    Lowestoft Weather

     

     

     

    This is a very very good ramp from Lowerstoft Weather but it does not factor in any progressive downgrading of the cool pool and upgrading of the Saharan draw. On the 06z temps as high as 8C at 850 hpa lap the northern coast of France. Imagine this upgrading to 10C and getting a bit further north on the next runs. As it snows the warm air will be pushed to the surface and it will all turn to rain and wash the snow away in a great flood. This is much more likely because it's #BarbecueFriday.

     

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