Windysun1
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Everything posted by Windysun1
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Ah thats nice a family day out in ireland..
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Windysun1 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
How many have their money on GEM to be correct tonight? How many hope GEM to be correct tonight? Seriously would love to see GEM pull it out of the bag. I wonder will we end up with a kind of half way house. -
Indeed you did. Infact the UKMO is obviouly seeing something and have greater scope of data than what we have. It usually seems to pain them to mention "snow" They are now throwing it about as if it was Lapland. As i see it now the initial heights will collapse. The next and very potent energy phase as you say could be between the 14-16. This looks like been more Polar than continental. The longevity is the question this continuous attack on the strat might just be the trigger for extending such a potent spell. I certainly hope so.
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Sorry, i know im like a dog with a bone here but what is Judah comments here considering all the signals as posted above. Is it just in reference to the East Coast of the States that he sees an end to winter. Slightly bemused.
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You could be correct bluearmy but i took up differently. Infact if you look at the lack of blocking at the end of the ECM run..anemic is putting it mildly. Does it have any relevance to his post i dont know but its certainly disappointing. Il give it to Sunday to see if there is any back tracking. Im gone off on a bit of a tangent here not toally strat chat. Sorry mods.
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Not what we want to see to say the least and you would wonder is that what some models are picking up as regards poorer amplification of the GLH... Although personally i think it might be too early to call anything past 4 to 5 days. Alot going on in the strat ie warming at different levels that the models are still trying to interpret and alot we still dont fully understand about the strat. Complicated situation this science at the best of times
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Windysun1 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Possibly 10 days : ) -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Windysun1 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
19th of January...15 days away! Pretty to look at. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Windysun1 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
As BFTP said earlier or alluded to there is potential for a Scandinavian High to develop from here. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Windysun1 replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think the day 9 charts will actually count down from here, unlike previously (and sadly every other time) when the day 9 was tomorrow the next day and the day after... -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Windysun1 replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Im sure he didnt comment to be lectured..and is entitled to his opinion right or wrong. -
Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion
Windysun1 replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Meditation might be more beneficial ; ) anyhow merry Christmas to one and all! I think we are in for an Epic January. Dickens wont have a patch on this one! -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Windysun1 replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Ensembles will show colder. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Windysun1 replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It can still upgrade. Need another push ( i sound like a midwife ) -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Windysun1 replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
What are 850s showing? (sorry not in position to check) -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Windysun1 replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
More of a NE alignment... -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Windysun1 replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Guys, there is going to be chopping and changing. The cold will be back on the cards again possibly tomorrow. I think we might just miss out for Christmas but could swing our way too. But personally I think between the 26th and and New Years some places in UK will see snow to low levels. Trust me im a Limo driver!! -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Windysun1 replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Windysun1 replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes i dont think we are going to make it TSNWK but there will be cold options on the table just not of great length. I would be very hopeful of something big in the NY though. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Windysun1 replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Although still some way to go, from what i can see from the latest guidiance is the High will not reach high enough into greenland to prevent a suffient block. This does not mean all is lost. There will be strengthening Lows spilling over the top and could actually drag down some polar air. This could set up some battleground scenarios in favourable positions from the period of 24th to the 27th. Some areas could do very well pending (obviously higher ground) where the battle commences and others could have mucky feet : ) Still chops and changes possible. I think the 20th is D day for Christmas period. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Windysun1 replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Indeed, and i think you might find that blocking High forecast for the the 20th/21st (GFS) retrogress further north west by the 23rd. Possible but obviously nothing guaranteed. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Windysun1 replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The GFS is trying its best for us..if we could get that high to stretch into Greenland as it is quiet strong at 1045. Has anyone got a good long set of stilts for it ; )