StormyWeather28

Great pics guys. @jules what altitude is that?

Met Éireann Tonight Outbreaks of rain over Munster and Connacht will gradually spread northeastwards tonight accompanied by freshening southeast winds. It will be cold early tonight with some frost in the east and north and rain may turn to sleet or snow on the leading edge of the rain for a brief period. Over the north and northwest there is the risk of some snow accumulations on hills. Lowest temperatures will fall to between 0 and +2 degrees early tonight, but values rising in most places by dawn.

A proper Northerly with fronts pushing down across the country would deliver for all. Or a Greenland express set up Snow showers from an Easterly never make it over to me. An East wind with a front pushing from the south would give me snow yes, sadly with showers from an Easterly just never makes it to me. Ideally let's hope we can get a proper Easterly and a proper Northerly and not a wishy washy version of either.

Hard for me to get excited about an Easterly. Never delivers for me.

It does. But snow especially for the north. You missed that part out when you said it's terrible and over. The outlook is for all of the the UK so they're including the south in it. And increasingly snow to lower levels. So for Northern Irelands position its hardly bad is it

Well we'll agree to disagree then. First part sleet snow spreading SE with frost following and cold. Cold continuing through midweek, snow especially likely in the northern half. Cold conditions likely to remain until the end of the period which is the 29th UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019: Sunday will be cold across the UK, but for many it will be dry; brightest in the southeast. Some light rain or sleet is possible in the southwest at first; then a band of rain, sleet and snow is likely to spread across the northwest later, moving erratically southeast. Overnight frost and freezing fog patches are likely overnight into Monday. Cold weather is likely to continue through mid-week, remaining unsettled and at times windy with fronts spreading southeast across the UK bringing rain, sleet and snow. Snow is most likely over north and eastern areas and over high ground. Similar cold conditions are likely to remain in place until the end of the period, interspersed with brighter showery spells, although these could also be wintry. Overnight frosts will remain likely. Second part mentions it will be cold with frost and snow especially higher ground in North but increasingly to lower levels UK Outlook for Wednesday 30 Jan 2019 to Wednesday 13 Feb 2019: Cold but changeable conditions will be in place at the start of the extended outlook with spells of strong winds and rain, turning to snow at times. Overnight frosts are likely and snow, mainly over higher ground in the north, but with an increased risk to lower levels. The details of any disruptive snow remains uncertain. Milder, wetter interludes are possible, most likely in the south but with these comes an increased risk of snow and ice further north. Honestly do not get the over the top reactions. It's not like there going for a mild Atlantic dominated pattern and it's pretty much the same as yesterday just different wording. Cold and snow is used throughout. The outlook accuracy is always poor imo, changes alot because accuracy out to 30 days is poor. I guess people are just fed up with the blandness

Are you guys talking about the Met office 30 day outlook? If so I'm lost it looks practically the same.

I had a lot more air frosts in September and October than November and December. Also woke up to laying and falling snow on the morning of the last Saturday in October. November and December have been a joke. Zero interesting weather, any "storms" were just standard bad days. Nothing exceptional. No snow, no cold, no sun, no storms just the most boring mild cloudy high eating up valuable time from the heart of winter. Jesus this high is getting more irritating than listening to another brexit discussion.

From an IMBY perspective I don't want an Easterly. It never delivers anything for my location. Ever. In saying that, the Met office outlook has pretty much changed everyday this past month so I wouldn't give it much credence.

Alright thank you. Hopefully she is correct.

What did she say?

The Irish met have been discussing the possibility of severe winds occurring Saturday all week. They placed an advisory a couple of days ago and today it seems to have upgraded. 80mph gusts over the South and East of Ireland during daylight hours and early evening . Like Britain it's the north and west of Ireland that usually sees the storms so it could be quite potent given all the circumstances.

I agree by in large. However the background signals have been wrong so many times in the 5 years I've followed netweather forum so I can see how some people are dubious about them.

Nasty looking storm on Saturday according to ECM. Gusts up to 90mph+ Wales, Ireland, NW England.

What was the highest recorded gust in Scotland?

Does SSW ever lead to a Northerly? If it does deliver cold weather is it always from an Easterly?

Agree Ross. Imo we have a long way to go when FC storms. Models are rubbish when it comes to storms. It's my favourite weather type so I always religiously check the models when there is a chance of storm. As you say 9 times out 10 it's downgraded and the track is off a lot as well even a couple of days out.

I wouldn't read too much in to either model past Friday at this stage. All show various outcomes for that storm which obviously has huge effects for how it transpires afterwards. Some have the storm much weaker and further south. Others have it stronger and further north. 300 to 500 mile spread of where the strongest winds could be and big difference in strength of winds depending if deepens and goes north or stays run of the mill and south. Only three days away.

109mph gust at Figueira da Foz 4m asl

Madness! That's Lisbon in the firing line according to my dodgy eyes anyway.

Buoy off the West Coast of Mayo recorded a gust of 117mph. Luckily this storm didn't track further East.

Couldn't agree more. The slightest thing that wasn't foreseen when making LRF can crop up and has a domino effect to what happens after. For example a couple of years ago, A storm with exceptionally mild air pushed deep up in to Arctic circle. It changed the entire pattern thereafter . A week before it, no one knew it would happen.

I expect Storm Callum will become the third named Storm of the Season today or tomorrow. Latest Runs show quiet a nasty System for Ireland and Western Scotland. Gusts of 70-80mph widely over land, up to 90mph and possibly up to 100mph on coasts. Stay tuned. UKMO T72 GFS T72 T78 ICON T71 81 84 87 12Z ECM Gusts(I will mist this mornings run) Gust as it approaches SW Ireland

The criteria for naming storms is has changed this year? Previously an Amber/Orange warning from either Met was needed to name the storm. A yellow=no name. Yet Bronagh and yellow warnings only.