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Aleman

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  1. Bigger snowfalls for northern Alaska, northern Canada, US Rockies, Iceland and Norway. Winter looks to be moving up a gear and starting to creep out of the Arctic. https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#seaice-snowc-topo
  2. The weather has been glorious up here apart from Sunday but the warmth is getting more limited to a few of hours in the afternoon. It's getting dry again and that seems to be allowing bigger temperature swings. We're not even getting much dew in the morning. 4 of the last 5 nights have seen temperatures of 6.0C or under at Topcliffe. It's pretty chilly at dawn and dusk and cool in shadows or under the odd cloud through the day. The grass growth has slowed and it seems to have speeded up fruit ripening and seen off the bees, (plagues of ) wasps and bugs. I'm seeing trees yellowing and lots of leaves down early though a few trees look a bit diseased, esp the rusty horsechestnuts. I've seen a few dandelions sprout up, though! https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ind=03265&ano=2019&mes=9&day=17&hora=9&min=0&ndays=30 Snows look to be coming in thick and early for Siberia, Alaska and northernmost Canada. (An early bit for Idaho and Wyoming Rocky Mountains, too.) Could the very warm sea temperatures in the North Pacific and Arctic on that side bury them in thick early snow this autumn? https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#seaice-snowc-topo
  3. Thanks. Forgive my ignorance, aren't those two variables ultimately derived from surface mass balance? If SMB is persistently positive, over time they will increase, and vice versa. Thus SMB would be a good measure of where the others will go in future?
  4. Fig 3 in this link shows a positive trend in surface mass balance until 2003, before a negative balance which has yet to accumulate enough to overcome those gains - although the two do seem to be nearing overall balance. Did Greenland gain ice between 1960 and 2003? Are this and the above article measuring the same things? http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/2018/10/
  5. Not next week. Central Russia had a dump of snow and average daily temps under 0C over a wide area yesterday, with lows to about -7C in one or two localised spots. I'd love that for a only a week or two in January but not in mid-September for me! Settled snow: https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#seaice-snowc-topo Average Temp: https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2
  6. We've got a bit complacent on energy supply in the UK in cold winters. Everyone assumes cold won't last but what if it does? There's not as much spare capacity in gas and electricity supply as some experts would like I've already posted about how we've lost another coal station this month - 4% of supply - and the French interconnector might be unreliable due to weld problems at nuclear stations - also about 4% of supply - so we might be skating on thin ice this winter in terms of electric capacity as it was matched by demand a few times last winter for very brief spells, although renewables generation should be up again - but that's less consistent. Then consider that we nearly ran out of gas storage buffer through March 2018. Electricity grid supply and demand http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/ We used up about 2/3rds of stored gas last winter and nearly all of it the previous year. http://mip-prod-web.azurewebsites.net/PrevailingViewGraph/ViewReport?prevailingViewGraph=ActualStorageStockLevelsGraph&gasDate=2019-09-12 Do we have enough gas storage? https://www.argusmedia.com/en/blog/2018/may/9/uk-government-rebuffs-gas-storage-pressure I'm a bit wary myself. I think it's a bit dangerous to assume UK winters will only get warmer and that other EU countries can supply extra needed when it's very cold. There seems to be an assumption that interconnectors will always be available (despite current doubts about French nuclear) and that Europe won't all be cold at the same time. What would happen if we had another 78 or 63 or 47? We've all gone soft in our centrally heated modern homes and offices. How would we cope if it were -5C and snowing for more than a month, pipes were bursting all over, and spot prices of gas and electricity rocketed because we did not have enough spare?
  7. It's not quite as simple as that. I remember the late 70s winters. We often had cold powder snow blowing in on a stiff northeasterly. It drifted across the roads and closed them. They ploughed and, because there was plenty of powder that was not sticky, it drifted across the roads and closed them again without any more new snow actually falling.
  8. Early first snow for California https://sacramento.cbslocal.com/2019/09/11/mt-rose-highway-reno-incline-village-tahoe-snow-graupel/ Bet this central Russian snow sticks now.
  9. I've had two pipe bursts due to penetrating frosts in the last decade and you lot want more cold? Also, have a think that UK electricity demand reach its full generation capacity, including interconnectors with Europe, last winter a few times in the short cold snap. This month sees closure of a coal power station that produced 4% of capacity, another 3% coal station closes in March and the French are having trouble with welds at EDF nuclear stations which might see shutdowns and imports from them of around 4% disappear. I like a little snow to say we've had a winter - but be careful what you wish for. I hope renewables capacity has risen enough this last year to cover closures and that they produce when its cold, dark or foggy and windless. Politicians seem to have us sailing a bit too close to the wind with generation. http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/
  10. Our Bramleys hardly flowered which I put down to the cold/hot/cold., dry weather and more disease than normal. The few flowers we got seemed to produce apples so I don't think pollination was an issue. Despite the low apple number, they remain small but seem to be hanging onto the tree better than normal despite a couple of windy days recently. There is a chance we might get some decent ones late on if they can stay on the tree.
  11. Raspberries decent. Blackberries all small and lots of flies. Very poor Bramley crop. Plums recovered from a bad start but early pickings infested with grubs and rather small. Not had a decent one yet but ripening late and don't look too bad on tree. Dessert apples good numbers but not sweet yet, tiny and eaten by wasps after a very poor pear crop left them with less of their favoured eating. Damsons have been decent. Corn ears small so leaving them late as possible to pick. Both Anya and King Edward potatoes were good. Had a very bad year with blackbirds digging. I think the dry start with big temperature swings stunted growth of everything and caused disease problems and lack of bugs for birds. This improved greatly through July and into August - lots of butterflies, red-tail and honeybees, and wasps, besdies all the flies and gnats. Overall, a very disappointing year but with some exceptions, mainly due to long spells with no rain and some early cold snaps enouraging disease and pests. I hope next year a more even spread of temperature and moisture and a little warmer overall would be a bonus.
  12. Pixels increasing in Siberia ahead of lots of expected snow this week. Odd spots of snow seen in southern Russia, Labrador and Wyoming that will probably vanish quickly. You can see the Artic sea ice starting to grow again in places. DMI showed the volume low several days ago, still being higher than 2016, 2012, 2008, and I can't tell whether it's above or below 2007. http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php
  13. Wool and cotton can contain about 30% or so moisture by weight in normal humidities. They get weaker if you lower that figure. Water molecules increase the attractive forces between the fibres a little bit. It's why you often see misting sprays in carding plants where they comb the fibres parallel ready for spinning. It helps reduce fibre breakage so finished yarns will be stronger. It's also why it's a good idea for you to use a brush and hairdrier together in moderation (or preferably just towel dry) if you want to keep your locks in good shape. There's a old comedy film where somebody (Jackie Chan?) breaks out of jail by taking off his shirt and twisting it around a couple of bars to bend them. He pees on it first to increase its strength.
  14. Spots of snow keep appearing on mountains all over - Siberia, Alaska, Nunavut, Rockies north of US border, Iceland, Sweden, Norway. There was even a forecast of possible snow amongst the rain on Scottish mountains last night. Nothing has stuck at anything but high levels yet, though the Arctic turned a few degrees cooler in the last day. The forecast is for winter to make itself know over Siberia this week. https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#seaice-snowc-topo Arctic Sea ice volume looks to be at its bottom, making it maybe 3rd bottom after 2012 and 2016? http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php Ice extent's bottom still has a bit to go. similarly, that looks like finishing between 2nd and 4th. https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/
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