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  1. There's always ice flowing into the Greenland sea from the north and out through the Fram straight - but the rates are both variable.You've talked about inlet. I'll concentrate on outlet. Sometimes ice lets out to the southern tip of Greenland more slowly and ice backs up into the southern Greenland Sea and spreads. Other times it exits the Fram Straight quickly and ice build-up in southern Greenland Sea areas evacuate .Play with the timestepping in this model. When winds slow or block ice flows through the Fram Straight, Greenland Sea ice backs up a bit and forms a slightly thicker "plug" in the southern Greenland Sea that can lift overall ice extent (and sometimes bridge the Fram Straight). When currents further south revert to the more usual mode, Fram Straight blockage quickly passes and Greenland Sea ice extent in the southern section drops back again. You might want to look at winters of 2005 and 2006 as exit flows blocks, it thickens up a bit and bridges from Greenland to Iceland as the "plugs" pass through. I suppose ideal conditions are a high S/SE of Iceland so S/SW winds block ice filing down the coast and ice higher up will spread and thicken under the influence of very cold westerlies flowing off Greenland. When the high moves on, it would all start to empty again. A high S/SE of Iceland causes "constipation" that leaves a "mound" in your Greenland Sea ice extent chart. DMI Modelled ice thickness OCEAN.DMI.DK
  2. Saw a sleepy ladybird yesterday. It was in a sheltered school area that benefitted from afternoon sun and reflections from some big windows.
  3. After a cold day here there's been a spurt in temperatures only for them to quickly drop back again in some places like Topcliffe. Decoded synop reports WWW.OGIMET.COM 19 miles to the North at Leeming - no warm spike even: Decoded synop reports WWW.OGIMET.COM Seen better here. Funny stuff weather. Topcliffe's had a cold (daylight hours) day yet a 12.4C high. Similar at mine. We fleetingly spiked to 11.0C after dusk but it's been under 7C all day and back there now. Weather reports from Topcliffe WMO (3265) WWW.WEATHERCAST.CO.UK A graphical and tabular preparation of weather observations of last week by the WMO weather station from Topcliffe, United Kingdom (3265). It is updated... Weather reports from Leeming WMO (3257) WWW.WEATHERCAST.CO.UK A graphical and tabular preparation of weather observations of last week by the WMO weather station from Leeming, United Kingdom (3257). It is updated...
  4. Yes, it's ruining OUR snow. Temperatures are up and sea ice decreasing but snow extent is still actually marginally increasing in the Northern Hemisphere in the satellite era - just not in western Europe. Rutgers University Climate Lab :: Global Snow Lab CLIMATE.RUTGERS.EDU Rutgers University Global Snow Lab If we look at this winter, extent is currently very near average but it must be deeper since snow water-equivalent is about 10-25% above average, depending on which measure. GCW Trackers GLOBALCRYOSPHEREWATCH.ORG I have connections to Texas. They're getting more snow in recent years. Snow settled in northern and/or central Texas 7 times before Christmas. It usually averages less than once per year but it's snowed in Houston 5 times in the last two winters. It never snowed when I lived there for 6 years in the 70s. Snow in Houston happens more than you think ABC13.COM SNOW DAY! Did you know since 1881, it has snowed 94 times in Houston? If snow is still coming in similar amounts, we'll probably get our turn again soon. Looking back, 2-4 years after a solar minimum looks a likely timeframe for us, especially if enhanced with a bit of cooling volcanic activity at the minimum. There's been a lot of rumblings lately. Maybe we're setting up for a wintery 2022-23?
  5. Sleety rain and 4C at Queensbury (1000ft or so) , Bradford at 12:45pm. The yellow ice warning was showing on the car until I got past Leeds. Bloody awful day with this blustery breeze.
  6. No flowers yet. Early shoots around 2 inches, maybe a few at 3, probably slightly behind recent years. I did my final autumn lawn cut a week ago. I had been unable to before that because it had been far too wet with rain and then heavy misty/foggy dews and light frosts in December, before finally drying out a few days after Christmas. The final cut around the end of October is usually as much leaves as grass. The 10 bags I dumped on my compost heap were all leaves. Now the leaves are gone, I see have a lot more moss than normal. I did notice the aubrieta hanging down the wall looks to be growing so that might come out early.
  7. Ice Pancakes found in the UK - Blog by Jo Farrow WWW.NETWEATHER.TV A rare occurrence in the UK; Ice Pancakes or Pancake Ice. Round flat white disks which form on moving water in winter as the ice pieces jostle about.
  8. Don't kid yourself that we'll not have severe winter weather again. If history repeats, the most likely time is 2-4 years after a solar mimimum, often aided and abetted by an increase in volcanic activity close to the solar minimum. Here's a bit of recent cold to keep you going: Incredible throwback photo shows snowdrifts which left a North York Moors village cut off in 2010 - Yorkshire Post WWW.YORKSHIREPOST.CO.UK A teacher has shared astonishing photos which show just how harsh the winter of 2010-11 was in the North York Moors National Park. River Esk - Whitby Harbour Frozen Over !! - Real Whitby WWW.REAL-WHITBY.CO.UK December 21st 2010 - View All Our Whitby Photo Galleries Here Over night low temperatures of -10 in Whitby led to the harbour being totally frozen over this... Stock Photo - Bridlington harbour frozen over in East Yorkshire WWW.ALAMY.COM Download this stock image: Bridlington harbour frozen over in East Yorkshire - D1J813 from Alamy's library of millions of high resolution stock photos, illustrations... Rare ice pancakes form on cold river WWW.BBC.CO.UK The unique spectacle occurs when foam freezes on the water's surface. Leeds canal freezes over in extreme cold - latest snow and ice weather forecast | Yorkshire Evening Post WWW.YORKSHIREEVENINGPOST.CO.UK Leeds rivers and canal ways have frozen over today due to the cold weather. Many Suffolk routes, including main trunk roads, blocked by snow drifts WWW.EDP24.CO.UK Drivers are being advised not to travel unless absolutely necessary after roads where blocked overnight by snow drifts.
  9. I gave up counting the number of times it snowed in that cold fortnight last February when it moved into double figures. Trouble was none of them amounted to anything. Deepest we had was probably not even 2cm and the rest were just dustings. I suppose some might count the run of showers over numerous days as almost a single episode. It's snowed this month, though. Family saw proper snow on hills around Bradford but we only got a bit of sleet amongst the cold rain. However, we later had an icy dust that settled out of the freezing fog when they were getting a sunny day. Death of snow is exaggerated. In my opinion, you are probably looking in the wrong timeframe for snow and cold if you think it will come at the bottom of the solar cycle. It looks more like it occurs nearly at the next peak for us. (See 1947,1979 and 2010. I accept 1963 doesn't suit).The solar cooling phase of equatorial seas (where most energy is absorbed) continues until the cycle has climbed half-way up again - two or three years after the low - and then the lower energy tropical sea water takes a year or two to transport that reduced energy to our temperate latitudes. I'd guess at a colder winter here 2 to 4 years after the solar low - so 2021 to 2023? (Think along the lines of peak Arctic sea ice not occuring with the sun's winter solstice low in December but much later. The cold continues to push ice extent up until the warming phase begins a quarter cycle after the low, which is March. My guess is it could be the same with the solar cycle as it does match a few well-known instances.)
  10. Maybe they were all full of this damn cold that everyone has. It has been cold in places where there's been no wind to blow away the overnight chills (as sometimes happens here in the Vale of York) There's been no warm spell here at all in terms of temperature though it's been very pleasant when the sun has been up. The high here was 8.5C yesterday - not 12 or 13C predicted - and 4.7C today. Yesterday's hoar frost melted in a few hours of daylight but today's has survived all day in the shadows. We went to Bridlington yesterday. The car said 5C when we set off at noon after demisting the thawed frost, and 11C when we arrived there at 1pm where an offshore breeze had developed. Like us, most people had gloves and hats on after the frosty start. It was nice to be warm there as we all have had the lurgy and stupid cough for three weeks. The highest we've had at home in the last week has been 8.9C and there's been three hoar frosts - including Christmas morning. I might add that it's only 1.3C now. The week before we had a 2.0C high on the day the mist did not clear. When the wind is low to non-existent, temperature can get vary variable over short distances. I'm presuming we'll have another hoar frost overnight to make 4 in a week. No warm spell here.
  11. I'm now a lowlander in the Vale of York. Hotter summers, frostier winters. No snow drifts while I've been here. I don't know how I'd go on cycling those hills now, especially with fewer good pubs these days!
  12. Now then, I used to help on farm in Thornton and got to others in Denholme, Cullingworth, Ogden and Queensbury when I was a kid, being transported around standing on just a PTO shaft no less! We used to get LOTS of snow - I've seen 15 foot drifts and complete car burying was common for a few years in the late 70s and early 80s - but I don't ever remember any before Christmas.
  13. Midlands Ice Age - further to my posts about how sea ice formation is a lot more complex than people might think, have you noticed the patch off NE Iceland that some models show and some don't. I presume that's from the heavy cold snow there over the last few days. (I posted a few links on the images thread.) It would be cold enough for the snow to persist but the salty brine will slowly dissolve it from below, aided or not by agitation from whatever wind there is. In this location it will very likely dissolve away in a few days, but in others it might seed new ice formation from colder seawater, melt and refreeze on top as a harder thin ice layer, or not remelt at all and persist as a soft layer of slush. Slush can be of various forms - nilas, frazil, pancake.That might then thicken with more snow to give hybrids. Some models measure it and others don't but you can usually tell something is going on from temperature variances. In this case there is an odd lobe of cold sea extending to NE of Iceland. It will probably perist for a day or two after the snow has melted. (Edit - I don't know why it persists in loading two images for temperature and deletes them both if I delete one. Tried to correct a few times to no avail.)
  14. We've just had a bit of white sleet here amongst the icy rain in blustery conditions as a shower whistled through. Wind picked up from maybe 15-20mph to 40mph. We're just under 100 feet so I would imagine it's driving wet snow on the hills. Edit - I see there's a bit of settled snow high on the M62: Motorway Traffic Cameras - Live CCTV image, M62 Westbound - J23, Huddersfield WWW.MOTORWAYCAMERAS.CO.UK Motorway Traffic Cameras - View live CCTV images and traffic news. Covering the M1, M4, M5, M6, M25, M40, M60, M62 and more.
  15. For those not aware (likely a minority on here), sunset times have already started getting later in the south but northern UK sees the earliest sunset today or tomorrow. The latest sunrise is around the 28th in northern Scotland and 31st in southern England. It was only last year that I learned that latest sunrise and earliest sunset were separated by a couple of week so. I still struggle to get my head around it! Sunrise and sunset times – United Kingdom WWW.TIMEANDDATE.COM month, year, day, date, break of day, sunup, sunrise, first light, daylight, morning, sunset, sundown, evening, dusk, night, nightfall, twilight, end of day...
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