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Aleman

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  1. A very heavy dew and misty start after 3.0C overnight. The sun and slight breeze won though and we hit the same 15.0C high as yesterday.
  2. That graph doesn't show that Antarctic Sea Ice extent ice was slowly increasing for 35 years until a couple of years ago so it's fair to say it might not be great help with ice interpetation. Then consider how they measured the temperature of the Southern Hemisphere (and other seas and frozen areas of the planet) before satellites to get that graph. It's all sea and ice that nobody bothered with much as there was and is nowhere much to visit or reside. How did they measure southern oceans and Arctic/Antarctic temperatures in 1850,1900, and even 1950, if there was no equipment and hardly any people there, and proxies don't produce enough data points or precision needed? How do you get global averages going back 170 years when more than half the planet has next to no data for 130 of them? On one of the few bits of land in the SH from which they draw assumptions to fill in the gaps, Australia's Bureau of Meteorology don't use the heatwave data of the 1880s and 90s as they are considered to be inconsistent with modern techniques so the offical land data record is only considered fit to start around 1910 - just after what some consider Australia's hottest period in recorded history had finished. Then there are adjustments for a host of discontinuities (like the change to electronic sensors from alcohol and mercury) which cloud the issue and are hotly disputed. In that temperature graph, you are actually only being presented with one of a range of possible assumptions from many potential ones. Change the assumptions and you change the graph. I question any data before the 1970s as being highly suspect for global averages. I wonder how they dare to use it - although a few limited regions might have enough data with sufficiently few discontinuities to be okay for some local trends. Since the 1970s, there does look to be warming in satellite global averages - though with significant differences between different models so cautions still apply - but there are suggestions they might have started in a cold interlude (the 70s global cooling scare) ,and is that warming trend now moderating? The global average has been falling since the El Nino Feb 2016 peak and this month to date is less than +0.250C. The current weak El Nino will probably push this back up again, or maybe not. But what will it mean, with only 40 years of more widespread global satellite data and models that produce results that still disagree with each other somewhat? I think most people agree it got warmer between the 70s and the Noughties, with fairly good anecdotal evidence to match the satellite readings. Data before that is just plain iffy and clashes with some anecdotes (e.g. old news reports on US dustbowl years). Further warming in the last decade is less obvious from ice and temperature readings but it looks like there has probably been a little more but not as quickly as the previous two decades. So, did those two decades start in a cold dip and were just a bounce back that is running out of steam? Quite possibly but that does not preclude longer term warming, either. We need to wait for more good data. Contested adjusting to old limited coverage data is just not good enough.
  3. Radar showing isolated spots of snow on Pennines and North York Moors. A little freezing rain working it's way down Lincolnshire - but again isolated. We just have frost, though. We were fortunate to get our burst pipe fixed (4th Feb) without much bother and there was no obvious damage after sweeping the garage out. I'm a bit more nervous about cold weather now. Roll on spring!
  4. Sea ice has started melting back around the Bering Straight. It's 20C above normal there. The cold has moved to the US midwest again where it's 20C below normal in the Dakotas. https://www.weather.gov/afc/ice https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2anom
  5. 10 feet of snow in 4 days. California ski resorts close due to too much snow. https://www.theepochtimes.com/california-ski-resorts-close-after-they-get-too-much-snow_2791167.html https://www.mercurynews.com/2019/02/05/all-yosemite-roads-closed-7-feet-of-new-snow-in-the-sierra-nevada/
  6. Snow into Tunisia again, though don't think it has made it any further than previous couple of times. Pulling back in the US now. Is the winter's peak NH extent behind us, now? https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#seaice-snowc-topo
  7. Well, the thaw set in yesterday afternoon and we had issues overnight that has led to me discovering a burst pipe in the garage this morning. I've manage to isolate our supply and a plumber is coming soon. Damage is unassessed but I'm keeping my fingers crossed it's not much more than a wet floor. However, anybody telling me it's been quite mild will get the same as the garage - a new length of copper pipe inserting!
  8. Okay. I'll stop moaning about my slow shower because it's struggling with the very cold mains water supply.
  9. Currently sunny and -0.2C but high cloud increasing. Barest hint of a breeze. Overnight low -6.0C
  10. -6.0C in my garden is the lowest of the season but my garden faces and slopes south and the remaining snow looks like someone has tried to scrape it off. I'd expect colder nearby where there is more snow. Leeming recorded it's lowest so far at -10.8C. Minimum Temperature Last 24h - 02/03/2019 at 09:00 UTC No.LocationStation IDAmount 1Loch Glascarnoch (United Kingdom)03031-11.9°C 2Tulloch Bridge (United Kingdom)03047-11.5°C 3Aboyne (United Kingdom)03080-10.9°C 4Leeming (United Kingdom)03257-10.8°C 5Redesdale (United Kingdom)03230-10.4°C 6Eskdalemuir (United Kingdom)03162-9.9°C 7Topcliffe (United Kingdom)03265-9.9°C 8Benson (United Kingdom)03658-9.8°C 9Shap (United Kingdom)03225-9.6°C 10Aviemore (United Kingdom)03063-9.1°C 11Cairngorm (United Kingdom)03065-8.7°C 12Aonach Mor (United Kingdom)03041-8.4°C 13Odiham (United Kingdom)03761-8.3°C 14Pershore (United Kingdom)03529-8.2°C 15Farnborough (United Kingdom)03768-7.7°C Script courtesy of Michael Holden of Relay Weather. Data courtesy of Ogimet
  11. What time or period would that be based on? We had 1-1.5cm all day yesterday but it has mostly thawed in the sun today while we still have 1 cm in our plentiful shaded areas. It's close for depth of snow and location, and I had to compare a few lines between coastal features to confirm, but we're maybe 10+ miles outside the boundary of the reported snow in that image. I suppose what I'm saying is that the image might be slightly conservative but it depends on exactly what time it represents. I dare say there is also the possibility that we just have a touch more than 1cm while those a few miles around us have a touch less than 1cm and so this locality get classed as zero. Any thoughts or comments?
  12. Pancake ice formed in the Swale: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-york-north-yorkshire-47087778
  13. Pancake ice formed in the Swale: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-york-north-yorkshire-47087778
  14. I don't agree. It's our 15th day of this colder spell that incuded 12 frosts and 9 below -3C (referencing Leeming so I can show here). https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ind=03257&ano=2019&mes=2&day=1&hora=7&min=0&ndays=30 The last 24 hours at our house have seen a low of -5.8C, a high of -2.1C and a low of -4.3C. We've now had our 6th snow episode. Allthough 5 have been pathetic and given a couple of settled dustings that most busy people will not even have seen, we have about a centimeter this morning. I reckon this cold spell has just about been cold enough to balance out the cold fortnight over Christmas. As someone who goes to football, I've been to 4 matches where I've been trussed up like an attack dog trainer and still felt too cold - that's about normal for a full season. I do not have this down as a mild winter any more. Although dry, so little snow, it's been pretty average for temperature now.
  15. High cloud with some bright gaps. Currently -0.9C after a low of -4.3C. Just enough snow - maybe 1cm - fell sometime after 1am to make it look pretty. There looks to be a 5+ northeasterly so expect it will feel cold unless the sun makes an appearance.
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