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Optimus Prime

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Optimus Prime last won the day on August 31 2011

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  1. Optimus Prime

    Was global warming already detected before 1980?

    Anthroprogenic warming has been occurring since the 1960's in terms of a subtle background forcing. It's actually probable that human activity was having an impact before the 1960's. Natural cooling during these years was sufficient enough to dilute out a great deal of the warming produced from humans.
  2. Warmer than December 2015...lol
  3. Probably going to finish on 9.7°c after adjustments. Some regional variation where the south will have the highest anomaly again (possibly over 2.0°c) whereas the north will probably be within 1.0°c of the 71-2000 average.
  4. For the presence of breaking the 4th wall;
    Tips & bits or cash?


  5. Today, another set of model runs, another set of changes. Tomorrow, a different set of model runs, a different set of changes. Don't need to have a mind that's capable of cracking string theory down to 4 dimensions to realise things are looking far from certain, as usual.
  6. It's a fine comparison. Different type of pattern obviously but have a look at the chart posted by SS? and where is the 0°c isotherm in 2000? It's barely over Luton at the time of the wet snow (nearly 10cm fell) I guess my point was, we're using one aspect to make a statement like 'no snow away from the highest ground' which is obviously not true. Based entirely on on those atmospheric temperatures, Sleet could fall quite widely there and snow would be found relatively low down (200-300m roughly)
  7. Luton airport wasn't closed as a result of this then?
  8. In all fairness you might be right but it's the reductionist view that can sometimes come across as frustrating. A proportion of people seem to just stare at the 850's and produce a forecast based solely on those, when in actuality, there are a number of other variables (some of which are more important) when it comes to forecasting and marginalising precipitation type. Like all analytical science, forecasting requires an holistic approach. Looking at the wider picture, I don't think we need to worry about temperatures for snowfall. As a shower passes over it will fall as snow, pretty much nationwide. It's the dry periods and sunshine between the snow showers that may reduce/prevent the snow building up. At night snow will probably fall everywhere and settle.
  9. Have our judgements all of a sudden been clouded by one cold March? Perhaps we need reminding how exceptionally warm the last one was...
  10. Going by the ECM Saturday is looking very cold for the time of year Temperatures will be barely above freezing for many.
  11. Atmospheric temperature anomaly profile for Saturday Certainly looking like some exceptionally cold air coming our way. 10°c - 12°c below normal.