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Optimus Prime

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Optimus Prime last won the day on August 31 2011

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  1. It's a fine comparison. Different type of pattern obviously but have a look at the chart posted by SS? and where is the 0°c isotherm in 2000? It's barely over Luton at the time of the wet snow (nearly 10cm fell) I guess my point was, we're using one aspect to make a statement like 'no snow away from the highest ground' which is obviously not true. Based entirely on on those atmospheric temperatures, Sleet could fall quite widely there and snow would be found relatively low down (200-300m roughly)
  2. In all fairness you might be right but it's the reductionist view that can sometimes come across as frustrating. A proportion of people seem to just stare at the 850's and produce a forecast based solely on those, when in actuality, there are a number of other variables (some of which are more important) when it comes to forecasting and marginalising precipitation type. Like all analytical science, forecasting requires an holistic approach. Looking at the wider picture, I don't think we need to worry about temperatures for snowfall. As a shower passes over it will fall as snow, pretty much nationwide. It's the dry periods and sunshine between the snow showers that may reduce/prevent the snow building up. At night snow will probably fall everywhere and settle.
  3. Have our judgements all of a sudden been clouded by one cold March? Perhaps we need reminding how exceptionally warm the last one was...
  4. Going by the ECM Saturday is looking very cold for the time of year Temperatures will be barely above freezing for many.
  5. Atmospheric temperature anomaly profile for Saturday Certainly looking like some exceptionally cold air coming our way. 10°c - 12°c below normal.
  6. The beast is lurking to the east I see. A low chance but it's certainly possible...have to wait and see
  7. The traffic light system is rather ambiguous really, in the way it is perceived differently by different people. Watch how people drive and blast through red lights just as it is changing from amber. It happens all the time, a significant minority really don't give a sh.. and they think they are immune to death because they are canned up in a metal shell on wheels. We could try emphasising danger to life more quantitatively, but that might just confuse people. Ultimately, being free to do as you please and with no threat of punishment (such as curfews) that also means we kind of get the right to risk our own life's, and that of others. My only complaint is that I feel the NW was slightly ignored. It was really bad yesterday and the winds this morning have been ferocious with a few trees down and some damage. There should be a yellow warning out for wind. PS: I think the Metoffice have actually been forecasting this cold spell really quite well. The BBC seemed to be very slow to change.
  8. North Manchester Perishing cold, gusty winds and cloudy with moderate snow. Significant drifting in places. -4.2°c WC -12.9°c
  9. It's going to be close. The date record for the 28th Feb is -3.8°c. Last nights provisional minimum is down as -6.1°c. Today's maximum needs to come in at -1.5°c to equal that. After corrections it's certainly possible. Last time a winter record date was set was December 2010 I think (that year set several)
  10. The indication from the ECM is the UK, NW Europe, Eurasia, Russia and Siberia will remain unusually cold for the time of year: The reversal in winds will probably see out the first ten days of March.
  11. Everyone seems surprised. Which is strange because ultimately what the ECM is showing is plausible given the background signals. Northern areas are really going to be getting it hard this first half of March.