Earthshine

It's been particularly cruel this year that the longest daylight hours have felt so dark. I can deal with garbage from the Atlantic in Autumn, Winter and even Spring but July is where I draw the line. Sunny spells can still feel brilliant but we are rapidly losing daylight hours and it feels bittersweet. Always next year!

You know things are bad when you're looking to the third week of a month that hadn't started yet for hope

Just want some calm and clear skies weather. You wouldn't think it would be too much to ask for a couple of days in July!

Missed the mark with my 18.0°C for this month amazing how we've had such intense heat further south and if that boundary between warm and cool was just a bit further north we would be in for a very interesting time

18.4°C and 55 mm please

GFS OP brings the furnace in for August.

Ah my bad, sorry! Yes it's been one hell of a front-loaded summer so far.

We just had the hottest June on record. Don't think it's quite that extreme. And we are only halfway through summer

Bloody hell. Had better weather back in February!

This Weather is seriously depressing me now. Work is stressful but warm sunny days always take the sting out of it. Want to hide in a hole until we get some proper sunny weather again.

Quite telling that the first week of July being a bust still managed 30 degrees. Mean temperatures are actually running above the 1961-1990 mean remarkably. Undoubtedly the marine heatwave from June keeping what would be a very cool pattern much warmer near the surface.

They certainly were a bit off the mark for July. Late June they were suggesting a continuation of warmth.

Bloody hell, ECMWF 500 hPa geopotential height anomaly charts make for some seriously rough viewing for summer weather fans right out into August. I'd suggest look away if you're after hot weather!

Writing off the first 20 days of July? Are we all looking at the same ensembles?

Suspect it will all correct westward...

With a maximum mean CET of 22.6C, June 2023 would have been (with the exception of last year) warmer than any August since 2003.

A bit of a miss this forecast was we never really ended up with a scandi high scenario and I way overestimated the rainfall. Minimum CET is only at 3/4th warmest on record at 11.4°C, so no new record there.

Fascinating stat, thanks!

Mean since the 9th has been around 18.8C I believe. A final value like that would smash the previous record.

Maximum CET looking likely to go. Ahead of 1976 by 0.6°C.

Mean maximum a remarkable 23.1C now. This is 0.6C ahead of the previous record in June 1976.

Here's a thread where we explore the impact of atmospheric aerosols and whether they could potentially have links with the recent record heat observed globally. Aerosols must be included in climate risk assessments (2022): Aerosols must be included in climate risk assessments WWW.NATURE.COM Estimates of impending risk ignore a big player in regional change and climate extremes. Estimates of impending risk ignore a big player in regional change and climate extremes. Preprint on potential link between reduction in ship sulphur emissions and decrease in cloud brightening observed off the coast of SW Africa. Detection of large-scale cloud microphysical changes and evidence for decreasing cloud brightness within a major shipping corridor after implementation of the International Maritime Organization 2020 fuel sulfur regulations EGUSPHERE.COPERNICUS.ORG Abstract. New regulations from the International Maritime Organization (IMO) limiting sulfur emissions from the shipping industry are expected to have large benefits in terms of public health... Decrease in sulphur emissions accelerating warming in Europe between 1980 and 2018: https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1606330

Sorry, wasn't sure where I should post this. Is there a climate science thread perhaps? If not I can make one specifically about recent changes in aerosols. Definitely an interesting problem. More pollution and less warming or less pollution and more warming. It's a lose-lose really.

Aerosols must be included in climate risk assessments WWW.NATURE.COM Estimates of impending risk ignore a big player in regional change and climate extremes. Estimates of impending risk ignore a big player in regional change and climate extremes. Reduction in atmospheric aerosols (pollution) likely to contribute to more extremely hot days across much of the world. Changes to regulations on how much sulphur ships can emit (IMO 2020) a potential contributor to record warm SST across the north Atlantic. I would expect more record breaking in Europe as the reduction in pollution is fully realised.

Up to a toasty 17.0C now after a balmy mean of 20.5C yesterday.