Earthshine

15.8C and 20mm please

I don't want to know what if feels like to live in the Faroe Islands though we better get a 2011-style Autumn heatwave after this "summer". Does feel weird how we had a record breaking month which recorded a mean maximum CET higher than anything recorded in 2019 and yet the summer feels like a write off.

Brilliant, thanks Roger. I think I share the view with many others here that your analysis on all things CET and temperature here in the UK is absolutely fantastic and really insightful!

Yep today is another write off - still foggy.

Yet another dire "summer" day in Exeter. What a joke.

What a kick in the teeth this chart is... looking forward to seeing the back of this summer and trying again in summer 2024

Hi Roger, how do you estimate the monthly CET? Do you use forecasted values for a couple of stations? I'd be interested to know what the projected maximum CET would be for August. My estimate for the maximum CET for the summer would be the following, dependent on the August value: August maximum CET / Summer maximum CET / Rank: 21.0°C / 21.2°C / 22nd 21.5°C / 21.4°C / 20th 22.0°C / 21.6°C / 16th A value of 21.0°C for August would amazingly put 2023 ahead of 2013 in terms of the maximum CET (21.1°C) and equal to 1997 (21.2°C). A value of 22.0°C would give a seasonal maximum CET of 21.6°C, putting summer 2023 ahead of 1984 (21.5°C). I think a maximum CET of 21.0°C should be reached this month. Clearly June carrying this summer enormously, putting it amongst some very respectable summers like 1984, 1989, 1990, 2013, etc, even in terms of maximum daytime temperatures and if ignoring the warm nights.

I've been thinking about why forecasts have struggled in the UK this summer. One idea I had was that when you generate a forecast you use both the previous short term forecast (a priori information, "background") and new observations (satellites, ocean buoys, surface stations, etc.), which have respective uncertainties. The uncertainty in the background is really difficult to estimate and is strongly affected by climatology. I wonder if the extraordinarily extreme state of the atmosphere globally is screwing up the estimated uncertainty in the background and hence impacting the forecast upstream?

This summer has broken my brain a bit. We had an extremely anomalous June - the hottest June on record in the UK with a remarkable mean max CET of 22.6°C (ahead of even July 2019) and yet this summer feels rubbish! I think it's shown me that I can accept a poor June so long as July is good. June to July 2019 felt much better than June to July 2023 despite 2019 having a lower overall mean maximum temperature. Really crazy year and not in a good way.

Scampton recorded 24.7C on the 19th June 2005. In MIDAS there is a reading of 98C on 24/10/1973... definitely not suspect

A CET anomaly of 2.9°C in July would have been fantastic: 18.8°C! I think mid to late summer being a right off makes or breaks the summer - even if the June is record breaker!

Not a bad day at the office today in Exeter after the rain cleared

Mega sweats from the ECMWF

Anyone have any recommendations of countries with sunny and hot climates to move to?

This is the model output discussion thread right? Not the "model output but not anything outside of the reliable timeframe discussion" thread? I'm aware it's not likely to verify but if anyone can point me to the rules that refuse unlikely charts please do. I mean we've had output charts for December here so forgive me for putting a 240 hours chart.

GFS 12z is stunning for day 10

Beautiful

Increasingly confident we'll have some banging summer weather next week

Bold to say there's a definite end with the scatter in the ensembles!

Déjà vu...

Surely not two 18°C CET August's in a row?? Perhaps the 20s is the decade that August makes a roaring comeback after being a bit lackluster since 2003. We've already had a 17.7°C and an 18.7°C August so far this decade.

Mean ECMWF and GFS charts look excellent for this time next week. Has it been a while since we've had a warmer second half of August?

Would probably be even higher with that insane ECMWF deterministic run. Incredibly widespread 850 hPa temperatures >=22°C

Bloody hell, c'mon GFS! Make my 18.4°C guess come true like you did with my 17.2°C June guess (almost)

Not in the UK! Just my luck I miss out on the hottest June on record. I definitely need to move abroad as soon as I can.