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Everything posted by Earthshine

  1. I have a feeling the usual monthly corrections may just keep 2006 in the lead (although it'll be close).
  2. Hey, I'm going to enjoy any last burst of summer before the long, grey and cold season that is the British winter. I wouldn't worry too much at this point in time, winter is a long old affair in Britain and I'm sure we'll have at least some cold weather (although seeing the state of winters in recent years, I may have to retract that statement ).
  3. Correlation doesn't equal causation. I wouldn't give much notice to potential "trends", particularly when we have so few 16°C+ Septembers. With such a small dataset it's bad science to draw any conclusions about what the following winter will do.
  4. July 2021 had a mean maximum CET of 22.4°C (warmest of any month since July 2018) and a mean minimum CET of 13.1°C (highest minimum CET for July since 2006 and the 7th highest in CET series). 17.7°C is the same as 2014. Overall a warm month, especially at night (similar to August 2020 which had a mean minimum CET of 13.3°C).
  5. If we end up on 17.7°C it would be the warmest month since July 2018 (and July 2013 before that). That would be quite the correction downward, I'd expect more in the region 17.9-18.2°C.
  6. Wow those are some abysmal June CETs. June 1972 was only a couple of degrees warmer than December 2015!
  7. Didn't August 2020 have 6 consecutive days where somewhere in the UK reached 34°C?
  8. Yep I remember July 2019 being a rather pleasant month here. August 2020 had a fantastic first half but gradually petered away in the second half. The CET for August 2020 was 19C+ for much of the month before a dramatic cool down later dragging the CET down.
  9. Looking like it's going to be the warmest month since July 2018.
  10. I agree, average high temperatures here are over 24°C which is around 3°C higher than expected.
  11. Can't remember the last cool night here. Average minimums at my location have been 14.2°C.
  12. I want to update my guess to 18.0°C and 70mm please.
  13. Minimum temperatures have been very warm all month despite mostly unremarkable maximum temperatures.
  14. It's currently 31C in my room. Feeling very, very muggy too. Last night was very warm so I resorted to sleeping with a wet towel and ice packs under my armpits worked a treat!
  15. CET increasing rather rapidly and we still have a few more days of widespread heat (rather than just concentrated in the SE corner of the UK). Out of curiosity, how are CET estimates created? Do we just look at the forecast for a number of regions in the CET zone and average them out, or if their a forecast for the entire CET region?
  16. A warm month looking likely (i.e. mid to high 17s, possibly 18)?
  17. Surprisingly pleasant day today. Forecast was for 17°C and sunny intervals but it is now currently 21°C with hardly a cloud in the sky.
  18. Reckon we could get close to a 18°C month if we get some proper summer warmth next week.
  19. What a shame, first half of June was fantastic. At least July seems to bring a return to more pleasant summer weather with temperatures in the low to mid twenties Celsius.
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