Gray-Wolf

If we are seeing EWRC then there WILL be further intensification once complete & Cat 5 is not out of the Question (IMHO?)

M.I.A., I believe we're stained glass windowed That 'lead orbital forcings chapie I exchanged EMails with back in the mid-noughties left me in no doubt of that! If He is correct & we miss out on the next 2 'precessional cooldowns' then we are in an ice-free world (200ft sea level hike?) & are inheriting a portion of a Carbon cycle not active in 35 million years! My major concerns are the speed at which we have introduced the forcings? The only other time forcings were introduced this quickly the Dinosaurs didn't like it!!! The past 5 great extinction events took , on average we are told, 3.7 Million years to complete.....we have done it in 100yrs!!! I use my 'glass & tap analogy again. Run the tap slowly & modelling the filling of the glass is easy & repeatable. Put the Tap on 'Full-bore' & it is nigh on impossible to 'model' just how things will go down......as far as introducing GHG forcings to the atmosphere it has been 'Tap Full-bore'.......no wonder our top Climate Scientists are all scratching the heads at what we have been witnessing the last months.....'Tap full-Bore'......

Surely, as a human being, this is about 'Human beings' & how they fare not how well the Planet has done the last 4 billion years? Mother N. will take care of Her own as She takes out the trash eh?.... EDIT: Oh!, yeah, North Atlantic set another record yesterday at 25.3C..... that's a few days after the last record was broken for 25.2C but 'nothing to see here eh? Mother N. has done it all before so nothing to fret over.....

'Stopped clock' An' all that......enjoy!

I'm a little surprised that 'Here', of all places?, there seems little concern about what the next 6 months MUST hold in store? Surely Folk know how a Nino imparts energy into the atmosphere & we have how many Ocean areas, in our Hemisphere, holding such a potential for this coming autumn? (as the 'cool'?).... We know that, since at least 2012, the Arctic has been pumping out a small Nino's worth of energy before it can begin 're-freeze' but this year, this year, how much more 'Energy' will be being dumped into our atmosphere? Am I the only one freakin' out at the prospects???......

I don't think folk are 'hearing' me? Again I'd ask for some 'parallel' of what we have done this past 60 years? 'WHEN' have we seen, in the geological record, forcings piled on as we have seen this past 60 years? Give me an analog to what we have seen over 'your' lifetime....coz there ain't none is there? I understand if you dare not imagine what is coming down the line, I know our weaker members will resort to the 'La, la, la,la" to keep at bay the horrific truths...but you guys? Really?

Again I'd like to reiterate I have never come across any historical/geological time period where 'forcings' were applied so rapidly to the climate system Pleqse feel free to correct me if I am mistaken but, as I pointed out with regard to 'mass extinctions' the previous 5 took , on average, 3.7 million tears to accomplish what we have in 100yrs The same is true of our 'loading' of our atmosphere with GHG's.... I haven't a Scooby how Mother N. deals with such but I know Her 'remedy' will be in keeping with the 'scale of forcings' we have applied & I, personally, find that terrifying! just work out for yourself how 100yrs compares to 3.7 million.....even if the 'forcings' we have applied to our climate system are a fraction of that it is still a pretty heavy loading no? As for the 'IMBYs'? How the hell does that tell you anything about Global climate shift??? "Well last tues was cloudy"......meanwhile the Inuit are shifting Villages & failing to hunt due to the scale of their experience of climate shift......should we take their 'IMBY' experience as the global norm???

Can I remind folk of what was discovered in those Siberian caves in the Permafrost region please The folk studying the stalactites discovered that whenever Global temps have been above what is the equivalent of 1.5C above those of Pre-Industrial the stalactites began growing..... That requires running water depositing calcite... That means 'no Permafrost'..... July was over 1.5C above Pre-industrial.... Melt the Permafrost & you Free those immense reserves of carbon, current safely in cold storage, & expose them to 'normal processes'....i.e. decomposition & the release of CO2/CH4

With all the heat in the Oceans, I think we may see ice struggling to reform come Autumn/Winter (as we see around Antarctica currently?) & so , though currently we seem to be doing well in the rankings, we will see ice cover in unknown territories by October? I wouldn't even like to call when we will see ice min this year? But I would put Money on us being number 1 in low ice standings by December?

Most folk in here will know my mind on climate change I hope a few will have read my input over the decades If they have then they might recall me reporting a conversation I had, back in the mid-noughties, with the then (if not still?) lead honcho with regard 'Orbital Forcings' based then in NASA I was put in contact with Him by Bob Grumbine who, at that time, was down in McMurdo looking at 'My Crack'.... The Orbital forcings Guy was of the opinion that not only had the 'then' warming stopped the next 'Precessional Cooling' but, in His opinion, the one following too meaning that Humans had over-ridden 46K years of any Orbitally forced cooling (remember we have already reversed the 1K years of Far Northern Cooling that had chilled those regions by 1C up to its stopping, & reversal, in the late 1800's? of course, those regions are now the fastest warming on the Planet even though the orbital forcing for cooling remains in play?) Why mention this? Well, upthread, someone was talking about the return of 'Ice ages'? Back in the mid-noughties the then 'Mass Loss from our Ice Sheets (if taken as a 'constant' from that time?) would see ALL Global ice gone before we saw the next 'precessional cooling', were that one to happen?, 69K years away Just the albedo Flip of a 'No Ice Word' would mean any return to Ice ages would demand extreme forcings.... Remember also that below our ice sheets lurks a hibernating portion of our Ancient Carbon cycle which would be re-animated once uncovered (as we see in the Andes currently?) That would re-introduce at least the same amount of CO2 as we have thrown into the Atmosphere since the start of the Industrial Revolution....another 'hurdle' for any 're-start' of Glaciation.... It, to me at least?, appears likely that Human kind has taken us out of the last ice age & back into the World of 36 Million years ago with no Antarctic/Greenland ice & a 200ft hike in Sea Level? The other thing that 'Climate Scientists' never seem keen to mention is the 'Speed' of the forcings we have introduced? Last week we were reminded we were in the 6th Mass Extinction The other 5 took an average of 3.7 million years to complete.....we have done so in 100yrs There are no parallels, in the geological record, of GHG's being increased at the speed we are increasing them Be it Deccan trapps or PETM 'cook off' of petrochemicals they still took many thousands of years to do anything like we have in the past 60 years? Try an experiment eh? Put a glass under a tap running slowly & see how much 'sloppage' you get? Now repeat with the Tap on full bore.....do you see the difference? There is no modeling the second experiment just a broad knowledge that there will be 'sloppage' but just where & when is to chaotic to capture Is this year our first hint of a step change to an 'Equitable Atmosphere'? S. American Temps of near 40C, in mid-winter for them, needs some explaining eh?

Atmospheric River 'rapids'.....

I changed to using 'Climate Chaos' a while back Alex?....covers all corners eh? As the pendulum swings get ever more severe we can expect to see both extreme heat (as our GHG forcing helps enable?) but also the 'dumping' of cold ever more swiftly into lower latitudes. In My past ar masses generally to a 45-degree rack from their point of origin. Now it is a direct N/S (or S/N?) exchange?) so we see 'Snow' in Med. countries & 90-degree temps in the Arctic....."Climate Chaos"! Poor Mother N. trying to keep things 'balanced' & within the old parameters..... She's gonna step up to the next 'Stable setting (for 'Her') any time soon....maybe then Folk will 'get it'..... "We're doomed Capt. Manering....doomed....."

BFTV began as a climate sceptic! He is now a PHD looking into coastal erosion around the Arctic Basin!!! Just shows You what 'exposure to healthy debate' can drive in a soul eh? Many posters became 'restricted' in their posting b/c of poor behaviours esp. once it was clear that the debate was over & the 'Human' inputs to Climate change became irrefutable. Recent 'Record Global Temps (likely to be broken again over the coming weeks due to the N.Hemisphere not at its peak temps yet & with an El Nino growing in the equatorial Pacific?) surely highlight our peril? Maybe it's so quiet b/c 'climate chaos' is now HERE & not a thing to be warned of?

Sure is & I don't really think our climate guys know what happens if we see a domino Fall' of all the 'tipping points we are at? One goes, they ALL go.... As I say 'Strap in' eh?

Hmmm.... can I remember warning folk, back in the mid-noughties just what we had to come if we didn't take immediate & meaningful action.....oh how you all scorned.....now we have our own 'Ocean Heatwave to our West & an Aussie Nino forecast like never before..... Strap in folks! (* So pleased the E.U. built our Flood defenses here!!!.....hope You all got yours.....)

Well, all you 'Fathers' out there.......what a day eh? They've 'knocked it out of the Park for us!!! Beers & Storms & Kilt/Vest Top temps!!!! HUZZAH!!!!

OK Guy's....what chance of 'Rain' over the next few days?....... I Have a 'Pond' to fill & I don't want to do it by 'Tap'.....

We're under that Cloud S.B. Odd 'spit' but nothing more.....I think it's the Hills? I can see the blue sky out your way & I'm well Jel!!

Well Summer Blizzard it's all looking to be 'going away' from my feed direction (a tad south of yours?) Like Yesterday the worst will be south over L'pool/Mcr.....as long as the Sun comes out all is not lost! Got my decking timber arriving later & I don't want to be stowing that mid storm!!!

I wonder if we'll see any T storm action later? There are showers building around Liverpool way that could 'clip' us but will they become active?

Someone noting the 'Hunga-Tonga' water still in the strat over on the Arctic melt season thread I'd imagine any excess moisture would lead to better displays this season? All we need is the dust!

IIRC 2012 was also a slow starter coming from quite a high final max ice extent? (after the 'Ice Maker' turned on across the Bering Straight & flooded Bering with late season ice?) It has been a while since we last saw a 'step down' in ice area/extent/volume has it not? With Fram exporting quite well there must be an amount of 'late season' ice above Greenland by now? I'm also interested to see how the potential Nino will impact the Basin esp. over the winter 23/24?

Ah! but if they're 'trans-dimensional' they might have a keener interest in us & our 'doings'? If we are meant to believe 'gravity' is a leech out from another dimension then what might our Nuke testing have caused in other 'branes'? The 'uptick' in UAP's since the dawn of the nuke age tends to suggest that, for some reason or other, it brought us to the attention of 'others'?.......

Just as I've learned how to wear my blanket without it posing a 'tripping risk' I don't need it! Evenings will feel a lot less 'restricting' once the blanket is shed!!! To think, soon enough, we'll be out in just shorts & T shirts soon enough....