Gray-Wolf
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Posts posted by Gray-Wolf
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If the lack of Saharan dust over the Hurricane season is a result of the impacts of the lowering of Ship Sulphur Emissions would we not expect it to continue this year and, in fact, be more 'settled' in the new role?
If the dust isn't heading for the Caribbean then is it bound due North for Western Europe?
Saw some piccies of N. Italy snowfall with two thick layers of Saharan dust embedded within it from the Easter weekend Plume they saw there?
Obviously air from the Sahara wont just be carrying 'dust'.....
I'm certainly keeping my eyes peeled for 'African Plumes' this Summer!! (eeeh, they used to be 'Spanish Plumes' when I were a lad!)
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Well, both the short range models I check have us with full cloud all day & I'm sat out in 'milky sunshine' that still has a bit of strength to it.......any excuse to sit out & stretch the eye balls is welcome this time of Year!!!
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Tops have gone white.....just sleet here...
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'Sleet' on my windscreen here in Mytholmroyd around 8pm!.....
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Methuselah Well we had Ducks walking on the Canal at the end of November so that was Winter 'binned then! (according to the old sayings)....."Ice in November to carry a Duck....the rest of the winter will be mild & muck...."
I'm now waiting for my tree lore to see how Summer goes.....Öak before Ash....in for a splash.....Ash before Oak....in for a soak....
(Ahd 'YES' take with a large pinch of salt!!!)
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ukpaul I have our main shop 2Moz & it's at the Halifax Asda.....setting off real early & hope to be back B4 it's really settling (post mid-Day?)
If I get away with that then it's just introducing our new Dog to heavy snow falling.....He's loved the bits we've had so a good dumping over mytholmroyd would be welcome!!!
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Can confirm Snow Showers in the West of West Yorks!
Watched it in from a mere line of cloud on the Western Horizon......looks like more to come too!
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Seeing as were 3 miles from the border I always check out the NW thread & someone, on that thread, has pointed out that precipitation coming off the Seas off West Wales & growing as they hit NW Wales.....If I take a bead they look bound for Gtr M/c & us later on in the afternoon?
Maybe they'll 'snow out' B4 they hit here or maybe the Hills will 'wring out' the last of the precipitation.....we'll see!
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6 hours ago, Aaron Roberts said:
Really frigid temperatures overnight. I run a bakery, the ovens are loaded and it's -6/-7 outside. A really hard frost, really beautiful. The weather has been superb the last few days, a little snow and plenty of sunshine and very cold. Perfect! Hopefully a little snow in The Pennines tonight/tomorrow, but we'll see what we get. I'm flagging a race in Mytholmroyd later, so I know it'll be tough getting the flags in the ground later.
I can conftrm You'll have a job getting the flags in!
If you're up towards the Mount Skip it'll have the sun on it otherwise fetch a jack hammer!!!
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Quite shocked to see the 06Z GFS showing snow for us Sat/Sun..MetO were having none of it
Spin on to the 12Z GFS, Snow still there but now the MetO forecast for here has Snow on Sunday Night???
I guess it's Radar watching for Me then.....we're supposed to have Folk over for Sunday Dinner so it'd better bloody well behave!!!
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Snowing in Mytholmroyd!
Our 'Rescue, Bobby Dylan the 3rd, is Mad for it!!!......it's His 1st time seeing snow & He doesn't know what to make of it!!
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From being borderline 'Yellow', here in the upper Calder Valley, we are solid 'Amber' for Friday/Saturday!
There isn't a Day I'm not grateful to the 'European Regional Development Fund' for their 'dibbing in' on the costs of our Flood Defences!!
If we see a flood event that overtops them then the whole Valley bottom, buildings/roads/bridges, will be lost!
Sadly all our defences do is ship the problem downstream where they have not had works done &, under this regime & minus Europe, will not
There is some sense of Karma in that it is our tory MP, who lives in the 1st place that will see such 'inherited Flooding' (Brighouse?), after He twice voted against funding our works.....
Stay safe Folks.....DO NOT enter flood waters!!!
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57 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:
The goal posts will be moved again nearer the time ,just like the rest of the global warming stuff....!
Correct (IMHO?)
Since the first IPCC report how many of the 'Pledges' have been kept?
Thatcher/Reagan ushered in this 'new age' & their opening the door to 'Unfettered Neolib Capitalism' has lead to their absolute control of Global agendas....none of which include saving our World....
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19 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:
As been said it’s only 9 years since Antarctica had its highest sea ice extent on record for satellite era . Why did the sea ice extent rise so quickly in a supposedly Global warming era? Is this a natural cycle …….
They tell us ut was a direct result of the Ozone hole messing with the Katabatic winds pushing ice further out from the coast (like the 'ice factory we saw in Bering straights, Spring 2012?)
Like many things though (incl. the Nino in progress?) warming eventually overpowers such forcings & takes over as the main driver?
This is a disastrous start to the melt season there with an area 5v times the size of the UK accepting Solar from the 'get-go'
If the Southern hemisphere takes over where we in the north left off (it seems so with the spate of heatwaves already suffered by that Hemisphere, NZ being the latest & it's only just Equinox???) then they will have their own 'Heat Domes & Ocean Heatwaves all of which will have interactions with Antarctica.....oh Yeah....& a Super Nino thrown in for good measure?
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Let's see how fast the Ice that did form goes away?
The Sea ice dampens out swells from the Southern Ocean storms so protects the Ice shelfs from impacts (remember what waggling that loose tooth used to do when You were a nipper?)
If The Southern Hemisphere follows our summer Ocean temp experience then we also have those impacts to contend with?
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Well our 'Summer weather (in the N.H.?) appeared to be a continuation of what the South saw over their Summer so will the S.H. 'Winter' also be a guide for what we ought to expect over our Winter?
If we do have a slow/interrupted 're-freeze' then I think we need worry about what the Nino Summer of 24', & the melt season it will influence, will bring us?
I think it's enough to say it's been a bonkers 6 months across both Land & Ocean in our Hemisphere & that it is doubly difficult to imagine just 'What' the culmination of it all will be
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As the NSIDC measure for 'Ice Area' drops into "2nd Lowest for date" one has to wonder just how 'LOW' "Area" can go?......
Should re-freeze be 'delayed/slow' this year, due to Planetary/Oceanic heat (combined with a growing 'Nino'?), we could see 'Arctic Ice area' at the number '1' Lowest by Mid-October.
A 'Poor' re-freeze (like we've just seen over the 'Southern Winter'?) will leave the ice in pooe shape to face a 'Nino' (& the rest!!!) Summer in 24'....B.O.E. might be the result with the MASSIVE climate hit such would cause.....
Interesting tomes eh?
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1 hour ago, karyo said:
Amazing to see how active this hurricane season is, considering the strengthening el nino. I guess it shows that the very warm Atlantic can override some of the el nino effects. certainly something that we will be seeing more and more in the future with the seas getting warmer.
Instead of the Nino providing a 'Special Heat Source' this year ALL Ocean Basins are pumping out extraordinary heat (0.4c above average for 60S to 60N?) & that's before the Arctic Basin releases its 'small El Nino's worth of energy' before it can re-freeze....quite something eh?
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Hi Don!
I just don't see how things can be 'normal' this year?
Surely overall global temps play a role in both the commencement of re-freeze & the overall extent it can put on over the season?
We've seen Antarctica badly mauled by external forcings over its re-freeze & things, if anything, are even more challenging now as El Nino sets in?
So Yes I would expect a slow start to re-freeze & plenty of 'stalls/reducrions' as the Season progresses......this, naturally will impact next melt season if we start from a low point & see open water warming from the 'get go'?
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Agreed Geordiesnow!
With us now seeing Hurricanes in the basin there will be more heat/moisture being pumped into the Arctic further impacting the end of melt season
As I mentioned up thread this will be where we see ice levels head down to the lowest for that date as the Warmth of the Hemisphere/El Nino slows down any re-freeze
After what we saw in Antarctica over its freezing season it will be interesting to see if our Hemisphere behaves in a similar way?
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If we are seeing EWRC then there WILL be further intensification once complete & Cat 5 is not out of the Question (IMHO?)
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M.I.A., I believe we're stained glass windowed
That 'lead orbital forcings chapie I exchanged EMails with back in the mid-noughties left me in no doubt of that!
If He is correct & we miss out on the next 2 'precessional cooldowns' then we are in an ice-free world (200ft sea level hike?) & are inheriting a portion of a Carbon cycle not active in 35 million years!
My major concerns are the speed at which we have introduced the forcings?
The only other time forcings were introduced this quickly the Dinosaurs didn't like it!!!
The past 5 great extinction events took , on average we are told, 3.7 Million years to complete.....we have done it in 100yrs!!!
I use my 'glass & tap analogy again. Run the tap slowly & modelling the filling of the glass is easy & repeatable. Put the Tap on 'Full-bore' & it is nigh on impossible to 'model' just how things will go down......as far as introducing GHG forcings to the atmosphere it has been 'Tap Full-bore'.......no wonder our top Climate Scientists are all scratching the heads at what we have been witnessing the last months.....'Tap full-Bore'......
Yorkshire and E England regional discussion - Dec 2023 onwards
in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion
Posted
My forecast has cloud all day & a high just scraping 10c.....currently mid-teens & broken cloud/part sunny....maybe the fields will begin to dry out eh?