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Everything posted by Gray-Wolf
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If the lack of Saharan dust over the Hurricane season is a result of the impacts of the lowering of Ship Sulphur Emissions would we not expect it to continue this year and, in fact, be more 'settled' in the new role? If the dust isn't heading for the Caribbean then is it bound due North for Western Europe? Saw some piccies of N. Italy snowfall with two thick layers of Saharan dust embedded within it from the Easter weekend Plume they saw there? Obviously air from the Sahara wont just be carrying 'dust'..... I'm certainly keeping my eyes peeled for 'African Plumes' this Summer!! (eeeh, they used to be 'Spanish Plumes' when I were a lad!)
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SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids WWW.SPACEWEATHER.COM
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Mild September = A Mild Winter?
Gray-Wolf replied to North-Easterly Blast's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Methuselah Well we had Ducks walking on the Canal at the end of November so that was Winter 'binned then! (according to the old sayings)....."Ice in November to carry a Duck....the rest of the winter will be mild & muck...." I'm now waiting for my tree lore to see how Summer goes.....Öak before Ash....in for a splash.....Ash before Oak....in for a soak.... (Ahd 'YES' take with a large pinch of salt!!!) -
ukpaul I have our main shop 2Moz & it's at the Halifax Asda.....setting off real early & hope to be back B4 it's really settling (post mid-Day?) If I get away with that then it's just introducing our new Dog to heavy snow falling.....He's loved the bits we've had so a good dumping over mytholmroyd would be welcome!!!
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Seeing as were 3 miles from the border I always check out the NW thread & someone, on that thread, has pointed out that precipitation coming off the Seas off West Wales & growing as they hit NW Wales.....If I take a bead they look bound for Gtr M/c & us later on in the afternoon? Maybe they'll 'snow out' B4 they hit here or maybe the Hills will 'wring out' the last of the precipitation.....we'll see!
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Quite shocked to see the 06Z GFS showing snow for us Sat/Sun..MetO were having none of it Spin on to the 12Z GFS, Snow still there but now the MetO forecast for here has Snow on Sunday Night??? I guess it's Radar watching for Me then.....we're supposed to have Folk over for Sunday Dinner so it'd better bloody well behave!!!
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From being borderline 'Yellow', here in the upper Calder Valley, we are solid 'Amber' for Friday/Saturday! There isn't a Day I'm not grateful to the 'European Regional Development Fund' for their 'dibbing in' on the costs of our Flood Defences!! If we see a flood event that overtops them then the whole Valley bottom, buildings/roads/bridges, will be lost! Sadly all our defences do is ship the problem downstream where they have not had works done &, under this regime & minus Europe, will not There is some sense of Karma in that it is our tory MP, who lives in the 1st place that will see such 'inherited Flooding' (Brighouse?), after He twice voted against funding our works..... Stay safe Folks.....DO NOT enter flood waters!!!
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They tell us ut was a direct result of the Ozone hole messing with the Katabatic winds pushing ice further out from the coast (like the 'ice factory we saw in Bering straights, Spring 2012?) Like many things though (incl. the Nino in progress?) warming eventually overpowers such forcings & takes over as the main driver? This is a disastrous start to the melt season there with an area 5v times the size of the UK accepting Solar from the 'get-go' If the Southern hemisphere takes over where we in the north left off (it seems so with the spate of heatwaves already suffered by that Hemisphere, NZ being the latest & it's only just Equinox???) then they will have their own 'Heat Domes & Ocean Heatwaves all of which will have interactions with Antarctica.....oh Yeah....& a Super Nino thrown in for good measure?
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Antarctica Temperature Monitoring + Records
Gray-Wolf replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Climate Change
Let's see how fast the Ice that did form goes away? The Sea ice dampens out swells from the Southern Ocean storms so protects the Ice shelfs from impacts (remember what waggling that loose tooth used to do when You were a nipper?) If The Southern Hemisphere follows our summer Ocean temp experience then we also have those impacts to contend with? -
Well our 'Summer weather (in the N.H.?) appeared to be a continuation of what the South saw over their Summer so will the S.H. 'Winter' also be a guide for what we ought to expect over our Winter? If we do have a slow/interrupted 're-freeze' then I think we need worry about what the Nino Summer of 24', & the melt season it will influence, will bring us? I think it's enough to say it's been a bonkers 6 months across both Land & Ocean in our Hemisphere & that it is doubly difficult to imagine just 'What' the culmination of it all will be
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As the NSIDC measure for 'Ice Area' drops into "2nd Lowest for date" one has to wonder just how 'LOW' "Area" can go?...... Should re-freeze be 'delayed/slow' this year, due to Planetary/Oceanic heat (combined with a growing 'Nino'?), we could see 'Arctic Ice area' at the number '1' Lowest by Mid-October. A 'Poor' re-freeze (like we've just seen over the 'Southern Winter'?) will leave the ice in pooe shape to face a 'Nino' (& the rest!!!) Summer in 24'....B.O.E. might be the result with the MASSIVE climate hit such would cause..... Interesting tomes eh?
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Instead of the Nino providing a 'Special Heat Source' this year ALL Ocean Basins are pumping out extraordinary heat (0.4c above average for 60S to 60N?) & that's before the Arctic Basin releases its 'small El Nino's worth of energy' before it can re-freeze....quite something eh?
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Hi Don! I just don't see how things can be 'normal' this year? Surely overall global temps play a role in both the commencement of re-freeze & the overall extent it can put on over the season? We've seen Antarctica badly mauled by external forcings over its re-freeze & things, if anything, are even more challenging now as El Nino sets in? So Yes I would expect a slow start to re-freeze & plenty of 'stalls/reducrions' as the Season progresses......this, naturally will impact next melt season if we start from a low point & see open water warming from the 'get go'?
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Agreed Geordiesnow! With us now seeing Hurricanes in the basin there will be more heat/moisture being pumped into the Arctic further impacting the end of melt season As I mentioned up thread this will be where we see ice levels head down to the lowest for that date as the Warmth of the Hemisphere/El Nino slows down any re-freeze After what we saw in Antarctica over its freezing season it will be interesting to see if our Hemisphere behaves in a similar way?
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Hurricane Idalia
Gray-Wolf replied to matty40s's topic in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
If we are seeing EWRC then there WILL be further intensification once complete & Cat 5 is not out of the Question (IMHO?)- 128 replies
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M.I.A., I believe we're stained glass windowed That 'lead orbital forcings chapie I exchanged EMails with back in the mid-noughties left me in no doubt of that! If He is correct & we miss out on the next 2 'precessional cooldowns' then we are in an ice-free world (200ft sea level hike?) & are inheriting a portion of a Carbon cycle not active in 35 million years! My major concerns are the speed at which we have introduced the forcings? The only other time forcings were introduced this quickly the Dinosaurs didn't like it!!! The past 5 great extinction events took , on average we are told, 3.7 Million years to complete.....we have done it in 100yrs!!! I use my 'glass & tap analogy again. Run the tap slowly & modelling the filling of the glass is easy & repeatable. Put the Tap on 'Full-bore' & it is nigh on impossible to 'model' just how things will go down......as far as introducing GHG forcings to the atmosphere it has been 'Tap Full-bore'.......no wonder our top Climate Scientists are all scratching the heads at what we have been witnessing the last months.....'Tap full-Bore'......