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Everything posted by Gray-Wolf

  1. https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-68.80,77.38,329 Well the circulation looks to be breaking down from the fierce circle of winds of a week ago? Will it just flop out of being this year with those low wind speeds working back around the circulation as we lose the polar night Jet until autumn?
  2. Hi Geordiesnow! Firstly there seems to have been a month of flushing out of Fram and down the East Greenland coast? That is is swapping out for very late formed ice inside the basin. This leads me onto the measures of 'volume' and the error basrs we must expect from the measure? We know the 'remaining ice' at the end of melt season is progressively smaller floes which are then welded to others with new ice. So how do we gauge a 'freeboard' from such a hodge podge of freeboard heights over such a small area? By the end of may, and the loss of late formed ice, we will see what the basin has to offer in way of resistance to the summer? Currently I believe we are seeing high swells around Svalbard and into the ice edge of Barentsz. We might expect area/extent to increase if the storms and spring tides lead to breakup of the pack edge and float off into the open water areas. I think we go into melt season in a worse state than last spring esp. over on the Pacific side.
  3. There are those punting for another major in 2019/20 which seems a little too close on the heels of the 20125 event? I thought we had an average of 25 years between major Nino's? Let us see if we pick up some westerlies to halt the trades over the coming months?
  4. Anyone brave enough to call max back on the 12th? Let us see how fast the peripheral ice goes away in these first few weeks of melt season ( Okhotsk/St Lawrence/Greenland)?
  5. Hi Cowdog! The 'forecast' levels , from the E.A. , go up and down with each update ( as the river height fluctuates?) Our 'properties at risk from flooding levels are 3.82. Currently the peak is forecast at 3.82 at 6 pm........
  6. Well we've had our flood warnings and the sirens down the Valley have sounded. The railway is shut at walsden as is the road to Tod at Callis Bridge. We expect to go beyond 'property flooding at around 5:45! That low had better get a move on a shift these sw winds to west or NW to push the rest of this rain south of us!
  7. Hi Knocks! Never mind the references just look at the long list of record warm temps the last 10 years has thrown up around the basin! I've given up on the number of times , under our 'washout summers', that the arctic basin was having a much nicer time of it than us down here!!! If folk will accept that we will see a seasonal pack then maybe they can begin to appreciate the scale of change such a thing will drive? The loss of the permafrost at the surface ( being driven ever deeper year on year) means that the land surfaces are now also able to react to warming once their protective snow cover melts out? The sudden leap in growth rates of the once 'dwarf' trees illustrates we;; the kind of seasons these trees are now becoming used to, sadly this only helps further warm the region across the year.
  8. Sorry you are cold C.M. I was flooded whilst most were dry so I understand what its like to be a minority event but 'COLD' was a minority event this past 3 months was it not?
  9. I'll tell you of a secret fear I have been harbouring for nearly 2 decades now Pete. I worry our climate system , if pushed hard enough and for long enough , will suddenly ( relatively) cycle up to the next stable setting for the forcings available? It would seem a great number of folk dialed down their concerns over the state of the climate over the so called 'pause' years. Since 2014's flip in the naturals (IPO/PDO) I think we may have crossed a threshold and our global climate is now 'reorganising' to the 'new' settings? The Super Nino threw a bit of a spanner into the works but last year saw us finally at the end of those peturbations and a clearer view of the types of weather events we will now need settle into. That includes the propensity for ridging over the UK I believe I have been seeing evolve this past 3 or 4 years ( away from the 'trough' years?). The odd 'final warming' over Antarctica, as it moved into southern spring, seemed to set the tone for their summer of record high temps? I think that we will now see this push into our Hemisphere ( as our record temps over late Feb in NW Europe showed?) and set us up for a similar record breaking summer across the Hemisphere? If it pans out then we have issues with both permafrost and sea ice as that heat works its way north. We will no doubt see developments across Yamals mystery hummocks but will we see another step down in sea ice cover/volume also? Either of those events could bring instant impact? That aside we have seen our first 20c 850 Hpa temp over the north of Africa for the year in the last couple of runs and , across winter, we have seen airs drawn in from that quarter? If N.Africa begins to itself set heat records then what will we see if our Azores ridge drifts east over us ( again) and taps into that air mass? What kind of cargo could it pick up on its travels esp. if it takes the Biscay route? Though we missed them last year saw some big storms run through N.France and into Holland/Germany. As with the snow might we find the folk bemoaning our luck suddenly find themselves regretting what they wished for if we suffer a direct hit from a beastie bigger than last years offerings?
  10. Thanks for the info Yarmy! Well we know we are well short of replacement parts for transformers should we see massive 'burnouts' due to induced currents so we'dd have to go dark for a period ( isolate vulnerable bits of kit?) rather than face many months without power? Our sats will give us heads up similar to the final warnings from a 'cane approaching so we would just need to react. As for sats? well someone else can tell me about the mess it would make up there and how we deal with it?
  11. I wondered if you'd spotted those temps over N.Africa Pete! With the HP's in the Mix hows about a nice 'feed' from that direction come months end? It would be weird if March did what Feb did and stick an anom , as big as the average temp for the time of year, on top of our daily maxes?
  12. Was the Carrington event the one that messed with telegraph wires/stations? I only know what I read in the BBC article so that there was a similar event to the one in 660BC in the 700's AD?
  13. Hi Pete! Just imagine that a combination of negative Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and Chineses 'dirty pollution' had done a number both on global weather patterns ( via butterfly's wing) and global temps since the late 90's peaking in the late noughties when China decided it did not want to kill all its urban worker via poor air quality. Did this 'clean up' lead to more solar hitting parts of the Pacific and so pushed the flip to IPO positive ( heat left at the surface and so entering the climate system rather than it being buried in the upper ocean) Since the IPO flip positive we saw the super Nino push temps to new record values? now we have fallen back into the 'averages' but these appear to be on the up and up as we settle into the new forcings from IPO/China There must be those who 'used' the forced cooling from the late 90's to push their 'climate change Denier' agenda realising that the 'slowdown' in rates of warming would , naturally, be swapped out for accelerated rates of warming. We are now in that period and not up to speed yet but we are still seeing top 5 years being posted each year since the ipo flip in 2014 If IPO positive can put 0.5c temp rise over impacted regions surely it's negative phase would force a similar 'negative' impact which will now be falling away? Expect another high end finish for global temps this year and I don't think you'll be disappointed!
  14. I find this a bit of a worry to discover? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-47536271 I worry it might really mess with our sats/power grid should we find it returning?
  15. Why not? I If you look at the heat records that have been set over our 'winter' , whilst the southern hemisphere have been smashing their summer records, it would appear that we are already starting the global year 'warm'? With more land surface in our hemisphere we should find ourselves heating faster than the mainly ocean covered southern hemisphere did over its summer spree of record breaking? If we look at our 'cold areas' over winter you'll quickly see that they flank the Pacific entrance into the Arctic Basin. The low Sea ice in Bering hints at what has been going on with WAA pushing in through the straights and displacing Arctic airs south over Canada/U.S. and Eastern Eurasia? So will this continue into the year or will both sides of that cold anom just rapidly warm as the sun returns? The draw down that Arctic air spread over those regions must have had will go and the positives, that still kept Jan/Feb global temps high, will be augmented by the areas that were drawing it down. We still see no Nino forcing global temps yet we are still seeing high temp anoms. If Nino does form will this cool the planet?
  16. So Ozz is still setting global temp records in March? I get the feeling that we , in the North, have ours to come!
  17. I take it we had a cycle 24 spot over the weekend? I see talk of cycle 25 activity increasing but not powerful enough to be noted as 'spots'. This has the folk who know about such again repeating that they see min. occurring either Q4 2018 or Q1 in 2019
  18. Culler , with thanks ,from Weather underground. Helps us make sense of the high global temps for jan and feb? A chronology of 2018-19 winter/summer temperature records from around the world Here is how the climatological northern winter/southern summer played out day-by-day between December 1, 2018, and February 28, 2019. Only records that one would consider “significant” are included (i.e., monthly temperature records on the national scale and all-time records for cities, states, and countries). Since all of the world’s nations except the United States use Celsius as their primary scale, all temperatures below except U.S. records originated in Celsius and are converted to Fahrenheit. DECEMBER 2018 Dec. 4: 29.8°C (85.6°F) Kagamihara (Miyakojima Prefecture), Japan. National monthly record excluding Marcus Island. Dec. 4: 33.6°C (92.5°F) Kaohsiung City, Taiwan. National monthly record (former record 32.9°C at Tainan in 1974). Dec. 8: 34.0°C (93.2°F) Praia, Cabo Verde. Territorial monthly record (former record 33.6°C at Praia in 2002). Dec. 22: 37.5°C (99.5°F) Chon Buri, Thailand. National monthly record. Dec. 23: 37.6°C (99.7°F) Karwar, India. Reliable national monthly record (higher and probably-unreliable figures have been reported in the past at other locations and years) Dec. 27: 46.3°C (115.3°F) Skukuza, South Africa. All-time record for any month. Dec. 29: 29.0°C (84.2°F) minimum daily temperature at Bangkok, Thailand. Warmest daily minimum ever measured in December for the Northern Hemisphere. December as a whole: Second warmest December globally on record since 1880. Figure 1. A map outlining the more significant temperature records set in New Zealand during the heat wave of January 28-31, 2019. Image credit: NIWA, the New Zealand meteorological service. JANUARY 2019 Jan. 19: 31.6°C (88.9°F) Christmas Island, Australia. All-time territorial record for any month. Jan. 24: 46.6°C (115.9°F) Adelaide, Australia. All-time record for site. The 49.5°C (121.1°F) at Port Augusta is the highest temperature ever measured on the coast of any ocean in the Southern Hemisphere. Jan. 24: 38.7°C (101.2°F) Namacunde, Angola. National monthly record. Jan. 25: 37.0°C (98.6°F) Pointe des Trois-Bassins, Reunion Island. All-time territorial record for any month. Former record was 36.9°C at Le Port on two occasions. Jan. 26: 36.6°C (97.9°F) daily minimum at Wanaaring (Borrona Downs), NSW, Australia. All-time national high minimum and world record high minimum for month of January. Jan. 26: 38.3°C (100.9°F) Santiago, Chile (Quinta Normal, the city’s official site). All-time record for city. 37.7°C observed at Pudahuel Airport in Santiago as well. Previous record for Quinta Normal 37.4°C on Jan. 25, 2017. Also, Chilean regional all-time heat records were set at Santa Maria (Valparaiso Region) with 42.5°C (108.5°F) and at Huechun (Metropolitan Region) with 41.9° (107.4°F). Jan. 26: 44.0°C (111.2°F) Mariscal Estigarribia, Paraguay. National monthly record (all-time record is 45.0°C at Prats Gill on Nov. 14, 2009). Jan. 27: -46°F (-43.3°C) International Falls, Minnesota, USA. Ties all-time minimum for site (excludes readings from 1909 at different location). Jan. 31: -38°F (-38.9°C) Mt. Carroll, Illinois, USA. All-time state cold record. Also all-time minimum records set at Moline, Illinois (-33°F) and Rockford, Illinois (-31°F). Jan. 31: 38.4°C (101.1°F) Hanmer Forrest, New Zealand. All-time record set here and at 11 other New Zealand sites. January as a whole: Warmest month on record for Australia. Warmest January on record for Bangkok, Thailand (avg. 29.3°C/84.7°F). Third warmest January globally on record. Figure 2. A map summarizing some of the significant temperature records set in Chile during the late January and early February heat waves. Image credit: Meteochile. FEBRUARY 2019 Feb. 1-4: Chile heat wave breaks all-time records at 10 cities, with temperatures ranging from 35.1°C (95.2°F) to 40.7°C (105.3°F). A 40.7°C at Traiguen is perhaps the most southerly 40°C+ reading ever measured on Earth. Feb. 4: Argentina: 38.2°C (100.8°F) at Perito Moreno, 35.8°C (96.6°F) Rio Gallegos, 30.8°C (87.4°F) Rio Grande. All-time site records (the latter is also a record for the Tierra del Fuego region). Feb. 5: 21.7°C (71.1°F) Sea Lion Island, Falkland Islands. All-time record and first 20°C+ ever measured at site. Feb. 7: -46.5°C (-51.7°F) Coronach, Saskatchewan, Canada (near Montana border). All-time cold record for any month. Feb. 8: -13.8°C (7.2°F) Shigeno Inui, Japan. All-time cold record. Feb. 9: -30.7°C (-23.3°F) Lake Akan, Hokkaido, Japan. All-time cold record. Also all-time cold record at Teshikaga (-26.7°C) and Taika (-29.8°C). Feb. 11: -12.6°C (9.3°F) Mauna Kea Summit, Hawaii. Possible all-time state record minimum. Feb. 15: 42.4°C (108.3°F) Traiguen, Chile. New national monthly record. Feb. 16: 41.0°C (105.8°F) Espinheira, Angola. All-time national record for any month. Feb. 17: 37.1°C (98.8°F) Salvador, Brazil. All-time record. This is a very temperate location that rarely experiences extreme highs or lows. Figure 3. Three of the four member nations of the United Kingdom saw their warmest February temperatures on record in 2019. All temperatures shown are in degrees Celsius. The event brought the U.K. its first temperature above 70° ever recorded during a winter month. At the same time, Los Angeles failed to hit 70°F for the first February since records began in 1878. Image credit: UK Met Office. Europe’s phenomenal February heat wave From February 24 until the end of the month (February 28), much of Europe experienced its most extreme February and/or climatological winter (Dec.-Feb) heat wave on record. Here is a summary of the national records set. Feb. 26 21.2°C (70.2°F) Kew Gardens, London, United Kingdom. National monthly record and warmest winter day on record. The previous U.K. winter record was 19.7°C at Greenwich Observatory, Feb. 13, 1998. The independent Channel Islands of Jersey and Guernsey also set February temperature records with 18.3°C (64.9°F) and 16.1°C (61.0°) respectively. 15.8°C (60.4°F) Tirstrup, Denmark. Ties national monthly record also set at Copenhagen on Feb. 25, 1990. 16.7°C (62.1°F) Karlshamn, Sweden. National monthly record. Previous record 16.5°C at Vastervik on Feb. 19, 1961. Feb. 27 20.5°C (68.9°F) Arcen, Netherlands. National monthly record. Previous record 20.4°C at Oost-Maarland on Feb. 24, 1990. 22.4°C (72.3°F) Angleur, Belgium. National monthly record. Previous record 21.1°C at Angleur on Feb. 24, 1990 22.5°C (72.5°F) Remich, Luxembourg. National monthly record. Previous record 20.0°C at Remich in late February 1960. 26.1°C (79.0°F) Borda Vidal, Andorra. National monthly record. This figure is questionable, but a confirmed 22.5°C was observed at Freda, which would be the monthly record in any case. Previous record 22.3°C at Borda Vidal in Feb. 2011. Feb. 28 24.2°C (75.6°F) at both Gussing and Deutschlandsberg, Austria. National monthly record. Previous record 23.6°C at Bruck an der Mur on Feb. 29, 1960. 23.5°C (74.3°F) Sarver, Hungary. National monthly record. Previous record 22.9°C at Rabagyarmat on Feb. 12, 1998. 20.6°C (69.1°F) Hurbanovo and Ziharec, Slovakia. National monthly record. Previous record 20.3°C at Bratislava on Feb. 22, 2016. 20.3°C (68.5°F) Chiesanuova, San Marino. Ties national monthly record. 24.1°C (74.7°F) Gacnik, Slovenia. National monthly record. Previous record 24.0°C at Vedrijan on Feb. 22, 1990.
  19. Oh Born! you know how it is and how you skip from this to that ( grasshopper brain?) without leaving a crumb trial to find your way back ( esp. on a shared comp!) So I searched on google to see if I could find my '0.5c figure' and hit on this recent article; https://news.agu.org/press-release/ice-free-arctic-summers-could-happen-on-earlier-side-of-predictions/ "Ocean temperatures in the Pacific always vary from month-to-month and from year-to-year, but slowly evolving ocean processes cause long-term temperature shifts lasting between 10 and 30 years. These shifts in temperature, known as the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), translate into an approximately 0.5 degree Celsius (0.9 degree Fahrenheit) shift in ocean surface temperature in the tropics over the 10- to 30-year cycle" As for the range of areas impacted? Well I think the linked resource give an over view? When you combine this with ( below) you have to wonder just how fast we are headed where we are headed? EDIT: For me the sad thing is we both struggled with the paid 'climate change Deniers' misuse of the 'natural ' cooling that the negative I.P.O. placed upon our warming planet over its negative phase? (and possible cost us any chance of mitigating the worst of what we now face?) But have shown no appetite to keep up that pressure since the 2014 flip and the surge in global temps we are now beginning to see? We were close enough to the tipping points prior to the 'faux pause' but now we face an 'augmented period of warming' ( not just from the I.P.O. but the albedo flip in the now 'open water/seasonally open water stretches of the Arctic ocean system that use to see permanent ice cover, the increases in CO2 forcing, since the onset of the IPO negative, and the reduction in 'dimming' we must now be inheriting over the Pacific now China has committed to cleaning its urban pollution levels) to see if we can't 'flip' these systems once and for all?44 Personally I will be paying attention to the 7,000+ 'pingo like structures' in Yamal this summer to see if Semiletov was accurate in his 'life cycle' of such structures. Are they just 'pockets' of Methane or do they link into this vast reserve of free methane we are told is capped below the permafrost? I also note the Russian push to have their nuclear breaker fleet keep year round transit for tankers from next year ,to export their natural gas from there.....do they fear losing it before they can capture it?
  20. From my limited understanding of the cycle the interdecadal Pacific Oscillation is now in its positive phase and so is supposed flip from 'burying heat' in the upper ocean to leaving it at the surface to interact with the atmosphere above. From my understanding it can mean up to a 0.5c temp spike across the areas of impact for its 'roughly 30 year' phase? If I am correct then the thirty years prior to 2014 had quite a 'draw down' on temps in its sphere of influence and on into the global picture? As such should we not, 4 years into this positive phase, now be expecting to see the first of its impacts filtering through? If , as I very much suspect is the case, the amount and type of pollution flowing off China is now changing and lessening then those sea surface areas, that are now no longer overturning but sitting at the surface, will also be seeing more energy reaching it that was the case over the past couple of decades? If anything this is why I think the coming years will begin to look as though Nino driven even if we are sat La Nada?
  21. Sorry folks , clumsy language. Humanity is only where it is today because of the 'benign' climate that has maintained over his 300,000yrs of being. Had we faced a PETM type climate when we arose as a separate species I do not think I'd be tippy tapping here today nor that global population would be anything like the billions we see? My 'normal' is the range that covers the past 8 or 9 thousand years of climate. Hope that helps?
  22. I think this 'see sawing' of extremes is the transition period between the last ,and the new, climate norm? Where that 'norm' will lie will depend partly on our behaviours but also on just how far we have impacted other climate areas already? Just because it's above freezing we don't see multiple metres of permafrost melt but given enough time we do? At a certain point in that process of melt the heat generated by the biological actions the above freezing conditions allow ( think compost heap?) add into the 'speed' of the conversion of that carbon biomass. The more frequent droughts across the amazon basin could lead to the loss of forrest there and that also will impact our attempts to limit/reverse our impacts? The past 3 years now have seen quite sizeable amounts of 'natural' produced CO2 offset any reduction humanity has managed to make in their CO2 outputs keeping is on , or above, the B.A.U. pathway....... let's see how this year pans out for Global CO2 outputs in the full knowledge we trumpetted our 6th year of reducing our outputs recently here in the UK?( close all the factories/steel yards/ship yards and I'm sure that's not to hard to achieve?)
  23. I'm not happy with the current resolution out in FI? When I see the Azores high plumping up I do not expect to see it battered away by a succession of lows ( over recent months you understand?) but rather see it push north and guide the lows to our North? Over winter we have seen some pretty juicy FI charts all but go by 5 days out and so I will wait until next week to see if what the GFS wants to see happens pans out or my 'return to H.P. dominance does?
  24. As the vortex collapses for the year will we see one final shot of cold from the north or will we be on the WAA side of things? Either a chilly start to April or a benign one!
  25. I'd agree that this is a way of understanding things Kold but this move to 'direct airmass exchange, N to S or S to north N, ( in our hemisphere), has to be a worry? It has been far easier , for the most, to see the 'Polar plunges' than it has to see the WAA's? The snow is a real draw for media attention, unusual mild/warmth over winter? not so much!, but they must be occurring in near equal volumes ( one replacing the other?)? Surely such mixing of extremes leads to change? leads to a lessening of the temp gradient across the Hemisphere impacted?
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