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    The Arctic ice loss

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  1. Back in the days of writing letters it would make sense, on occasion, to 'sleep on it' and reread what the previous night delivered. Most times of writing in high emotion it would find its way into the bin and never be sent! This might be an issue for social media sites esp. if you move on from your post only for it to grow into a beastie you never expected? The other thing I've found on Twit is that the more followers I accrue the more conservative I become with my tweets?
  2. https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-26.78,80.92,250 Still looking like a very 'gentle' breakdown of the PNJ? I have concerns that GFS FI at present is trying to show a more typical trop response to a final warming but I'm increasingly thinking that the PNJ will just drop to low speeds and fade from the plot? That might mean the current GFS solution out in FI will be very different when we come to see it? FWIW I think the high will end up located further east leaving us on the S'ly side of it and not the N'ly side of the high?
  3. https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-68.80,77.38,329 Well the circulation looks to be breaking down from the fierce circle of winds of a week ago? Will it just flop out of being this year with those low wind speeds working back around the circulation as we lose the polar night Jet until autumn?
  4. Hi Geordiesnow! Firstly there seems to have been a month of flushing out of Fram and down the East Greenland coast? That is is swapping out for very late formed ice inside the basin. This leads me onto the measures of 'volume' and the error basrs we must expect from the measure? We know the 'remaining ice' at the end of melt season is progressively smaller floes which are then welded to others with new ice. So how do we gauge a 'freeboard' from such a hodge podge of freeboard heights over such a small area? By the end of may, and the loss of late formed ice, we will see what the basin has to offer in way of resistance to the summer? Currently I believe we are seeing high swells around Svalbard and into the ice edge of Barentsz. We might expect area/extent to increase if the storms and spring tides lead to breakup of the pack edge and float off into the open water areas. I think we go into melt season in a worse state than last spring esp. over on the Pacific side.
  5. There are those punting for another major in 2019/20 which seems a little too close on the heels of the 20125 event? I thought we had an average of 25 years between major Nino's? Let us see if we pick up some westerlies to halt the trades over the coming months?
  6. Anyone brave enough to call max back on the 12th? Let us see how fast the peripheral ice goes away in these first few weeks of melt season ( Okhotsk/St Lawrence/Greenland)?
  7. Hi Cowdog! The 'forecast' levels , from the E.A. , go up and down with each update ( as the river height fluctuates?) Our 'properties at risk from flooding levels are 3.82. Currently the peak is forecast at 3.82 at 6 pm........
  8. Well we've had our flood warnings and the sirens down the Valley have sounded. The railway is shut at walsden as is the road to Tod at Callis Bridge. We expect to go beyond 'property flooding at around 5:45! That low had better get a move on a shift these sw winds to west or NW to push the rest of this rain south of us!
  9. Hi Knocks! Never mind the references just look at the long list of record warm temps the last 10 years has thrown up around the basin! I've given up on the number of times , under our 'washout summers', that the arctic basin was having a much nicer time of it than us down here!!! If folk will accept that we will see a seasonal pack then maybe they can begin to appreciate the scale of change such a thing will drive? The loss of the permafrost at the surface ( being driven ever deeper year on year) means that the land surfaces are now also able to react to warming once their protective snow cover melts out? The sudden leap in growth rates of the once 'dwarf' trees illustrates we;; the kind of seasons these trees are now becoming used to, sadly this only helps further warm the region across the year.
  10. Sorry you are cold C.M. I was flooded whilst most were dry so I understand what its like to be a minority event but 'COLD' was a minority event this past 3 months was it not?
  11. I'll tell you of a secret fear I have been harbouring for nearly 2 decades now Pete. I worry our climate system , if pushed hard enough and for long enough , will suddenly ( relatively) cycle up to the next stable setting for the forcings available? It would seem a great number of folk dialed down their concerns over the state of the climate over the so called 'pause' years. Since 2014's flip in the naturals (IPO/PDO) I think we may have crossed a threshold and our global climate is now 'reorganising' to the 'new' settings? The Super Nino threw a bit of a spanner into the works but last year saw us finally at the end of those peturbations and a clearer view of the types of weather events we will now need settle into. That includes the propensity for ridging over the UK I believe I have been seeing evolve this past 3 or 4 years ( away from the 'trough' years?). The odd 'final warming' over Antarctica, as it moved into southern spring, seemed to set the tone for their summer of record high temps? I think that we will now see this push into our Hemisphere ( as our record temps over late Feb in NW Europe showed?) and set us up for a similar record breaking summer across the Hemisphere? If it pans out then we have issues with both permafrost and sea ice as that heat works its way north. We will no doubt see developments across Yamals mystery hummocks but will we see another step down in sea ice cover/volume also? Either of those events could bring instant impact? That aside we have seen our first 20c 850 Hpa temp over the north of Africa for the year in the last couple of runs and , across winter, we have seen airs drawn in from that quarter? If N.Africa begins to itself set heat records then what will we see if our Azores ridge drifts east over us ( again) and taps into that air mass? What kind of cargo could it pick up on its travels esp. if it takes the Biscay route? Though we missed them last year saw some big storms run through N.France and into Holland/Germany. As with the snow might we find the folk bemoaning our luck suddenly find themselves regretting what they wished for if we suffer a direct hit from a beastie bigger than last years offerings?
  12. Thanks for the info Yarmy! Well we know we are well short of replacement parts for transformers should we see massive 'burnouts' due to induced currents so we'dd have to go dark for a period ( isolate vulnerable bits of kit?) rather than face many months without power? Our sats will give us heads up similar to the final warnings from a 'cane approaching so we would just need to react. As for sats? well someone else can tell me about the mess it would make up there and how we deal with it?
  13. I wondered if you'd spotted those temps over N.Africa Pete! With the HP's in the Mix hows about a nice 'feed' from that direction come months end? It would be weird if March did what Feb did and stick an anom , as big as the average temp for the time of year, on top of our daily maxes?
  14. Was the Carrington event the one that messed with telegraph wires/stations? I only know what I read in the BBC article so that there was a similar event to the one in 660BC in the 700's AD?
  15. Hi Pete! Just imagine that a combination of negative Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and Chineses 'dirty pollution' had done a number both on global weather patterns ( via butterfly's wing) and global temps since the late 90's peaking in the late noughties when China decided it did not want to kill all its urban worker via poor air quality. Did this 'clean up' lead to more solar hitting parts of the Pacific and so pushed the flip to IPO positive ( heat left at the surface and so entering the climate system rather than it being buried in the upper ocean) Since the IPO flip positive we saw the super Nino push temps to new record values? now we have fallen back into the 'averages' but these appear to be on the up and up as we settle into the new forcings from IPO/China There must be those who 'used' the forced cooling from the late 90's to push their 'climate change Denier' agenda realising that the 'slowdown' in rates of warming would , naturally, be swapped out for accelerated rates of warming. We are now in that period and not up to speed yet but we are still seeing top 5 years being posted each year since the ipo flip in 2014 If IPO positive can put 0.5c temp rise over impacted regions surely it's negative phase would force a similar 'negative' impact which will now be falling away? Expect another high end finish for global temps this year and I don't think you'll be disappointed!
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