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Gray-Wolf

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    Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
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    Life, the universe, and everything.

    Where next?

    The Arctic ice loss

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  1. I'm still looking at the overthrow of the capitalist system and the global redistribution of wealth and talent thrown at the issues we have created for all on this 3rd rock from the sun!!!
  2. ??? Surely 'every little helps'? When I gave up smoking, the first few times, one 'lapse' and I threw in the towel........ does that make any kind of sense? If we all did one thing to 'save the world' each day would they not all add up into one very big thing each day? I grew weary of the " so you want us all to go back to living in caves?", " You use a laptop!", "You eat meat" an age ago realising how vacuous such 'logic' is. The emissions of Dev's car is surely massively offset by the drain on earth resources to 'construct' the cars needed to keep up with the lower emission models do you not think? How much GHG's would be released in producing the parts, transporting the parts, assembling the parts compared to the 'extra' emissions Dev's battle horse produces? As I possetted, 'Vacuous'. For me it is mend and make do so to limit the rape of our world of its resources and the emissions producing 'new' demand. Stitch it , patch it, repair it and save those wastes?
  3. Cannot see it Sunny 76' If it is a pattern tweaked by low sea ice do you see another 2012 any time soon to free up more 'energy soaking' ocean surface to power the kinks in the polar jet? If it is reduced dimming/flip to IPO+ve then we have up 25 years more of IPO+ve and China will continue in its efforts to clean up its emissions If it is the global temp we have arrived at ( mimicking the thermal max) then we stay here but impacts intensify? Going back to low ice it was the 2012 opening up of the pacific side of the basin that added in another area acting like Barentsz/Kara had been doing through the noughties. The only area left ready to give up the ghost is the central basin so how will this impact circulation over the basin in Autumn/early winter compared to the current 2 hotspots of the ocean entrances?
  4. We would hear what they have come to understand but I'm sure most folk , like us, would also then look at the biblio and check the papers/studies/data they brought to us? Do you think we do not know what we're doing after 30 yrs of investment or are you saying we are mindless enough just to 'soak up' every bit of carp that floats by us??? How many , on this board, came in here as teens and are now MSC or above in climate science on the back of the grounding they found in here?
  5. When we see the potential for a strong dipole to set up over the basin my mind wanders to 'individual floe size and the impact on speed of travel small floes allow'? The past 5 years has seen quite a different Basin over summer to the latter years of the noughties that saw the 06 and 07 events? But whilst being cloudy and cool we did not see strong 'export' out of Fram? This year it seems like we may see the dipoles that feed Fram its cargo of ice? It is not just the UK seeing a lot more time under HP of late and whether this is merely low solar tweaking things ,or a combination of Low Solar/AGW/Naturals, is missing the point that we may well see the pack shunted from the Pacific side of the basin into our side of the basin> With Barentsz again very low on ice the waters there will be able to become a 'killing zone' south of Svalbard It will also peel away Beauforts ice early doors and lead to that area soaking up a lot of energy over the season? If the Greenie High comes back in the way we saw it over 2012 then the North of Greenland will also see its ice struggle (what used to be seen as our 'banker ice'?). Anyhoos , plenty of other things ready to kick off. The high over Alaska will draw in warm airs from the Pacific speeding snow melt across the regions impacted so we might see our hemisphere's snow cover take an early dive adding into the woes of the basin ( loss of snow cover impacts up to 1,500km away).
  6. The fact may's chair remained unoccupied for the duration highlights Greta's problem with 'the powers that be'? Corbyn may well have positioned himself where only the Greens once stood and his party spoken fine words but we have had plenty of 'fine words' these last 3 decades yet here we still are facing a potential 'existential crisis'. Even XR have been invited for talks with govt. but then we've seen what talking with the current shower leads to haven't we? Sadly I'm still of the opinion that this will be a 'bottom up' affair with the people being the ones to drive change via direct action? In the 90's we saw politicians falling over themselves to claim 'Green credentials' and it was no more than aa cynical vote catching ruse. The people will not allow this to happen again so I hope XR reps stand strong and take no B.S. when they meet with govt.! I bang on about Yamal this coming summer but we have seen 2 papers over recent weeks both highlighting how much GHG's are to be released ( from the top 3m of permafrost studied) and how big an issue NOX suddenly is with 12 times the amount of this '300 times as powerful as CO2 ' gas is entering our atmosphere as we believed. Hopefully the 'big event' which tips the public over into becoming active in their demands will not cost too many lives but fully scare the carp out of those who learn of it? Yamal would give us this ( whilst peeing off Putin as his natural gas reserves empty and his trade with the east collapses)
  7. IIRC back in the mid noughties the paid deniers made it plain that those who followed them should 'disrupt' any climate debate they encountered so as to make it unpleasant for anyone looking in. We all know what this meant in here! 15 years later and this is what you still see, be it in comments of MSM , be it in forums like this, be it in blog comment sections be it wherever? The work done by XR has again raised the profile of AGW and the dangers it poses to our continuance, as is, on this planet? Expect a backlash of hard core deniers again trying to disrupt any discussion on every platform! Just seen weirpig's post so I'd like update his CO2 rate to 410ppm+ and rising. The rate we have pumped GHG's into the atmosphere is over ten times the speed of release we see in the PETM so 'Yes' we are playing 'catchup' with the potential temp current levels of GHG demands we see? When we look at the Arctic this year we see Extent/Area at record low levels and likely to remain so for all of April. Weather up there has not been that of a 'perfect melt storm synoptic' yet still we sit lower than any other year including the 'perfect melt storm' year! Since the flip of the Pacific naturals , back in 2014, to a positive sign ( augmenting AGW) we have witnessed top 5 global temps each year. The Southern Hemisphere just saw a record warm summer season so what do we , in the N. Hemisphere think our summer will end up being for us? With record global warmth and the Pacific areas impacted by the flip in the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) now flooding the Bering/Beaufort side of the Arctic basin how do folk think melt season will go this year? To be record low at this time of years means stretches of open water early in the season so warming potentially higher than ever before. We will see a 'ring of fire' develop around the remaining ice that will rapidly melt out any ice floated into those regions..... So what do we think a 'blue Ocean event' will mean for global temps/circulation? Change is here and the cascade events will only become ever more impacting as we move forward
  8. Well the Saville shoot above us have calved up our moor into 'briquettes' so any 'Faxian' fire monsters have a perfect location to see the peat burn deep and the Grouse ready roasted?
  9. Well we're nearly into May and still on the 'perfect melt storm trajectory...... yet without the help of 'perfect melt storm' weather.......which is a bit of a worry..... But then has this not what the last 5 years of over winter 'preconditioning' of the pack been all about? Easing our way to a pack that an 'average' weather summer would take to near ice free ( and so lead to another low ice year the next year?) no matter what summer brought? That 'near ice free' scares the bejeebers out of me purely on the impact it will have on the unique stratification of the Arctic Ocean? Without that nurturing top Halocline the warmth, that already exists at depth, will be free to help limit ice over winter so ensure ice free the year after ( and that flip from discarding over 90% of all the energy incoming to one able to take in over 90% of the incoming energy.......remembering that at solstice the Arctic takes in a wallop bigger than at any time of the year at our equator!) This year? We'll see.......
  10. Why do folk appear so invested in both a long solar min and a low number for cycle 25? Surely we will see what we will see? If by Aug we have not seen a growing flux and new cycle spots becoming more common I'll rethink my acceptance of the earlier projections but until then we are sat at solar min and about to see cycle 25 ramp up over the next year.
  11. We have been really dry since last winter. Now we are at the point of cracked earth and yellowed grasses where first silage has been taken. Thing is I do not see it letting up any time soon. In the same time the washout summer highlighted we can now find ourselves forced into patterns very different to those of the last century ( even though it is just 'weathers' we did see in the last century) I do not think we can remove the measured changes we see across our world ( be it the background global temp rise and the associated water vapour increases in what the air now holds or the odd circulation behaviours we see as the planet struggles to balance its 'new' extremes) from what we see happening in our weather day to day? Is our current H.P. dominance ( everything resets to H.P. over UK be it azores extension or Scandiwegian extension?) which itself is driven by a very different polar jet positioning than that which gave us our run of 'washout summers'? You find your own reason for these different patterns but don't ignore the existence of them! For my part I was leaning toward a low ice forcing for both washout summers and now or entrance into our 'drought' forcing until I ran into the 2013 paper that was investigation the Holocene optimum weather across NW Europe? Now I do not know which to weight more as we sit around the global temps ( and so forcing) of the Holocene optimum yet the low Arctic sea ice ( and the shedding of copious amounts of energy into the arctic atmosphere each autumn/early winter now) is also obviously impacting the polar jet behaviour ( frequency/amplitude). It does appear that all roads point to drought until the next major change in forcing? ( if the record lows of 2012 installed this current pattern and the Changes in Pacific Naturals in 2014 augmented it once the super Nino was spent) As such we should sit back and enjoy the dry weather and any sun it might bring with it! But do not think we will not see potential record breaking precipitation events thrown in for good measure!
  12. Never mind banning discussions on climate change it appears you cannot event mention data that alludes to 'change' over on TWO now??? How the hell are you to make money as a weather site offering services to others if you do not use current data in your forecasting or using the tweaks changes brings to atmospheric circulation in your projections The sad thing I am also finding is the need for climate change deniers to link both science and mitigation to the 'left' in politics? How did saving our world and its population become a thing of the left and the continued wanton destruction a thing of the right?
  13. For those who expect warming to be a consistent straight line ascending line on a graph. Do you understand climate inertia? Do you understand long and short natural forcings can either add into warming of pull warming down? Do you understand 'global Dimming' and the causes for such? We are emerging from another period of our fossil fuel pollution causing significant dimming (esp just down wind of the source) We are now into the positive phase ( 15 to 30 years?) of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation Both of these augment our warming. You enjoyed your time when the pollution and naturals mitigated warming well now the opposite is occurring.
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