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    The Arctic ice loss

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  1. Gray-Wolf

    Methane Gas And Climate Change

    Folk talk of 'Global warming' and so maybe miss just how important the changing cold places are? It is the changes on Greenland/Arctic /Antarctica that most concern me and that is because change there , as this article points out , can cascade from one small flip into a sudden global flip. We've probably all seen 'myth busters' knock over a multi tonne slab with a 'cascade' that starts with a single domino? That state change from ice to water appears to radically alter the speed of change that is possible and so rapidly propels us into cascades of self reinforcing change from one single, small, push. Yamal popped up in carbuncles 2 summers ago. Prof Semiletov tells us it takes such 'carbuncles' 3 years to go from formation to 'popping' ( as we have seen from the Yamal craters that formed a few years back?) That means that we may well have our first 'domino' fall over this coming summer. One extra push in an arctic system packed with systems galore ready to go pop themselves (From ocean to stratosphere?)
  2. Gray-Wolf

    AGW derived events forecast for 2018!

    So how do folks think I did? Was I too 'soft' and just went for areas where we are becoming used to seeing impact ( compared with the way such events used to present?) or did I describe well the 'new' ways we are now seeing our atmosphere act and the impacts those changes drive on the areas they end up impacting?
  3. Sadly , having kids that were young over the period, the 'washout summers' were terribly similar in their format? To me they were driven /forced/enabled by the loss of ice at the Atlantic entrance to the basin allowing an huge uptake of energy to impart into the climate system come refreeze. By 2012 the opening of the Pacific side of the basin, in my mind, gave us yet another jolt of 'energy into the climate system via its milking of the solar that used to be rejected. The 'energy' goes to switch the amplitude/frequency of the undulations of the polar jet shifting us from the trough to the SW of ireland to this new position ( reset for every model run is now H.P. from where I view it!) promoting H.P. dominance as the go to? We are now outside of the mangling of that mega Nino so we'll see where the 'reset' for us is these days but I very much suspect we have 'shifted on' from the SW Ireland trough to a Far North Scotland ridge? Run this into summer and we do get a better one ( more established in the new 'ice free' forcings) than last year? I'm on for a blazing drought year myself......but then the same can be said about next year if we have swapped out 'washout summers' for 'drought years'?
  4. Isn't that just a posters 'posting style' though? We are all on a continuous learning curve and , on top of that, the game may be evolving away from past behaviours as we try and 'learn'? I think we're gonna have to find a blend of learning how such interactions evolve and the sweep of possible outcomes but then blend it with any impacts we might be seeing in the lower Arctic Strat come Autumn/Early winter every year now? Everything is also , after all , just a 'Forecast' . We can't take it as a literal readout of what will happen over the next period can we?
  5. https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2019/02/07/hurricanes-are-strengthening-faster-atlantic-climate-change-is-big-reason-why-scientists-say/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.ade68e9cfd66&wpisrc=al_environment__alert-hse&wpmk=1 Very interesting Esp. the potential for 'fooling folk' into staying put only for the storm to spin up into a monster over a 24 hr period removing any chance of evacuating?
  6. Gray-Wolf

    Antarctic Ice Discussion

    Thwaites and Pine Island are both a critical points in their evolution with the next retreat placing them into rapid decline as they slip off the last 'lip' and into the basin behind. This will then lead to 'ice cliff failure' becoming the major way ice will be lost ( like some of the Greenland ocean terminating glaciers are now seeing?)
  7. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018JF004775 A 10% acceleration in the flow of Petermann since the 2012 mega calve. With the latest calve looking likely this year we will likely see this speed increase again..
  8. Gray-Wolf

    Methane Gas And Climate Change

    I'm sticking this here so folk might link the two. Anyone witnessing the Boscastle storm will know how big that cloud became and just how much moisture must have flooded the strat above the event. If you care about 'feedbacks' ,and how quickly change will now impose itself, do watch this!
  9. Frightening to think that our best Scientific minds had us put the global seed bank there for safety only for it to now face flooding as the conditions rapidly change and the permafrost melts back! If things have changed so much from when the predictions were made for siting the Seed Bank there appear sound? So what other things have we got very badly wrong up there? GHG emissions from the permafrost melt back? EDIT: And then we have this; https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/06/met-office-global-warming-could-exceed-1-point-5-c-in-five-years
  10. It just worries me to see both ocean entrances now acting this way over Winter refreeze with any passing storm able to mix up salinity/warmth enough to take ice? Last winter ice over the Pacific side was very low so if this year ends up similar I have to think that the impacts of the oceans on the basin has passed a point that keeps the areas blocking the basin from swells/mixing are growing less and allowing both sides of the basin to see their surface layers mixed out from their old stratified setup. This makes holding ice over summer harder for the basin than when it was supported by the deep halocline and early deep cold lasting all winter.
  11. I'm also concerned that the SSW/Vortex displacement is altering due to the impacts of open water around the ocean entrances to the Arctic basin. If true then the interaction from open water Arctic to strat above will only become stronger over time as the new open water reality settles into its pattern. We use 30 year rolling averages to look at climate and we are only a couple of decades into these changes with our side of the basin being the first region to lose its ice. Now the Pacific side is showing a similar evolution so any 'tweaks' we saw in the polar Strat, impacting the formation of the polar night jet and its positioning? I'm sure our resident experts will tell us if they are noting any changes in the formation of SSW events or splitting of the vortex via more 'novel' (?) torque events driven by rowdy MJO swings compared to past events taking a more traditional route to bring about a warming/split vortex in the polar strat??
  12. I don't know if this is the right time or place but I think the 'backdrop' to all of this is the shift in 'average position' of the polar jet since the 2012 ( ish) seasonal opening of the Pacific side of the Arctic basin? The opening of the Atlantic side ( Barentsz/Kara) had been slowly impacting the 'average position' of the polar jet in our neck of the woods throughout the noughties with 07's record Arctic drop seeming to be a convenient place to pick up the 'washout summers' positioning of the jet. Since 2012 I think we have begun shifting to a drier, more H.P. dominated 'average position' of the jet with the old trough now in the far easterns edge of Europe ( see the recent flooding in Bosnia?). Without the polar night jet throwing a spanner in the works we were ( IMHO) always going to see things settle back to H.P. dominating our patterns? If we are now in some 'post 2012 polar jet configuration' then the summer to come will be even better than last year ( to the point of having issues with heat and lack of rain?) as High Pressure again favours keeping close to ,or dominating, our weather?
  13. I'm wondering if the only action we have to come , in reality, is the form the 'Final Warming' takes and any anoms it might drive?
  14. Gray-Wolf

    Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

    Bugger! Over last low solar the MetO put out a statement on the impacts of low solar on HP in the northern Atlantic. As such I had held out a hope that this low solar might be primed to give us some of what we saw last low solar esp. the 09/10 winter....... now I find this; https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-018-0293-3 telling me that any 'link' was merely a 'mirage' in the data and so my last,best hope now lies dashed !!!
  15. Gray-Wolf

    New Research

    Though I can't seem to find it again there is a paper out this week showing how we have drastically underestimated the warming of the oceans since the 1950's..... Maybe the data going into jonboys paper was their problem?