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    Life, the universe, and everything.

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    The Arctic ice loss

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  1. Gray-Wolf

    Links to Reports and Papers

    Wouldn't it be terrible if we made a better world for all and it was a mistake!!!........ better wait 'till we're really,really,really sure eh?
  2. Gray-Wolf

    Links to Reports and Papers

    Worse than that Pete if they do not see huge crowds of Tornados eating cities and port towns not being washed away by ice cliff failure Tsunami's whilst the northern Permafrost burns and gas explosions over the East Siberian Sea then it is not climate change as work at all. I suspect their working in the 'C' in front of AGW is just to facilitate such ? "4 million dead from starvation? that's not climate change millions have always starved why look at India in the late 1700's.........." "Bangladesh refugees? Well it has always flooded there....." Nothing more than a waste of time but at least they are commiting it all to the internet so it will not be lost to future generations when they piece together why we allowed this to happen?
  3. Gray-Wolf

    Links to Reports and Papers

    Funny thing , BFTV, we also seem to be moving into a period where folk are denying current warming by noting the fall from peak values of the last Nino. Sadly for them Nino is now on watch over at NOAA so not only are we not seeing the wicked Nina that followed the 98' Nino but also another strong Nino likely to push the record higher still. Will they be clumsy enough to reset and begin the same nonsense post 2019 Nino? I feel they will!
  4. Nice little storm just passed to our NW ( some closer strikes) but plenty of rain! Don't need to water tonight!!!
  5. Hi Cheese! Well you might be pleasantly surprised as Bury, Rochdale, Sowerby Bridge and Hebden Bridge just have been! Might pass in front of you but there are flash bangs and a lot of rain!
  6. Gray-Wolf

    Arctic melt Season 2018

    Hi Jeff! This is more like I had in mind as a hat tip to just how much has altered in both the makeup of the basin but also the new way melt season works under the well fragmented /thin ice/young ice new baselines. It is also just honing our measures as we move down to ever smaller remnant ice amounts come seasons end? Before long folk will be posting up comparative years to show up how amiss things are if we have exact same end numbers but the more modern one crammed with squares of very low content compared to the older ones with square 100% ice? If anything it is to safeguard the science from those who wish to discredit it due to data issues ( we've seen this with the temp record). So, crack on you ice agencies and give us a near perfect measure of the ice as it melts so the increasing number of ice watchers can make better sense of what they are seeing
  7. Bit bloody breezy out there! The Flood relief works mean that we have a near Saharan dust storm out back as well. Keep safe folks.
  8. Gray-Wolf

    Storm Hector - Atlantic Storm 8

    As long as he's not a naughty old Hector!
  9. Gray-Wolf

    Storm Hector - Atlantic Storm 8

    For those of us old enough to remember Hector's House when it was on before the 6 O'clock News there will be a lot of potential endings depending how bad things get!
  10. Gray-Wolf

    Arctic melt Season 2018

    With JAXA logging a 3K gain in ice yesterday I think we might be approaching a time for a more accurate measure of the new , more fragmented and mobile, pack? It is an entirely possible scenario where we see every grid square in the Arctic mask holding 15% ice yet the measure we are told of being 100% cover for the whole basin??? That tells us nothing and leads to unnecessary debate over just how much ice we do have in the Arctic. Surely we now have imagining and algorithms that could deal effectively with a new , more accurate measure than one developed solely to deal with peripheral ice at a time when this was the only place in the Arctic we had fragmented ice?
  11. Gray-Wolf

    Arctic melt Season 2018

    Hi Singularity! Yes indeed! This will be very interesting to see especially with the 'new' pack dynamics of well fragmented and mixed ice? In the past we would have had solid ice cover to damp out any waves but as we see on the Laptev coast there is ample open water to allow swells to form and then the ice beyond will act more like chain mail than plate armour effectively breaking apart any floes 'glued' together by late formed FY ice. We will also see transport increase but this may prove a 2 way street as the depression moves through with the expuision toward Barentsz then reversing into a compaction event so we may see some 'growth' in Barentsz ( unless the waters there overpower the ice?) and then a rapid drop there. The ice over the Pacific side will see good melt conditions as the high promises extended sun for areas of the pack. That 'brown ice' in Chukchi would soak up the heat. Interesting times eh?
  12. Gray-Wolf

    Arctic melt Season 2018

    Hi Knocks! Maybe Svalbard's move from 'homegrown ice' to imported iceand the general evolution of a more mobile pack explains both the mobility and the rapid losses? I think the Polar Bears had a 2 week window of ice contact with the north shore earlier this melt season to get onto the ice to feed. If not then they are stuck there for another year?
  13. Hi QS1989! My understanding for not needing to alter the cat's is the same as yours with only 'storm fatigue' making sense of any such change? . Maybe to stop the folk ignoring the danger of the cat 5's due to their previous " not as bad as forecast" experiences? If they know they face a total wipeout, no if's, no but's, from the approaching storm then it will reduce numbers of folk refusing to evacuate. Sadly no help for places like the Caribbean Islands where folk cannot easily evacuate and rely on shelters that may fail ( as we saw in the Pacific with Haiyan?). If we are seeing more top end storms, and 'more rapid development than forecast' storms, then maybe the lagards will get the message from watching other folks experience with these monsters without any need for additions to the Cat's?
  14. There's a lot of chatter about adding in a cat6 to the measures for hurricane strength. The new data on the increases in strongest storms since 1980 appears to be behind this ? We see a point with the strongest storms that an increase in winds of 10mph brings a 20% increase in damage suffered. So to give a Cat 6 warning would be an 'abandon all hope' call for the worst of the storms.
  15. Not looking good across Mexico or Pakistan. I'd mentioned in the Arctic thread my concern over any repeat ( but worse due to the changes over the intervening years) of what we saw last low solar and the 'Heat Domes' we saw build then. We see 3 deaths already in Mexico from the heat and they have a week of it at least to face. Maybe T Rump had advice that the future would include increasing numbers of climate refugees and his 'Wall' is his response. How will eurasia deal with the billions they may see fleeing areas becoming unlivable? If the Pakistan forecast verifies then we will see deaths there from the extreme and , should the grid fail again, many more. Central europe is still receiving the last of the cold from the Arctic but , by next week, we should be seeing an end to such at source as the basin sees the last of its cold flushed out by the ongoing WAA . I am still not seeing my worries over this low solar N.H. summer ease yet. Maybe next month?