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Gray-Wolf

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    Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
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    Life, the universe, and everything.

    Where next?

    The Arctic ice loss

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  1. I take all the folk suffering the 'flicker' in the 'leccy earlier had another flicker a couple of mins back? Looking at the size of area reporting it it had to be transmission issues and not local transformer problems?
  2. I'm concerned about the strength of the block? It has been , to my witnessing, out performing the forecast esp. its ability to mop up rain from the fronts that tried to come in and allow clear nights when cloudy was forecast? If the precipitation stalls then we might see a period of heavy snow under a section of the incoming precip? Might turn into an interesting afternoon/evening for the West of Yorks tomorrow?
  3. I've been keeping to the Jaxa numbers and again today they note a loss? In its records this drops us to 5th lowest but the scale of gains . This time of year the rest of the years in the record are still putting on large numbers each day and we are only 170,000 off second lowest which would appear to be 2 more stall/loss days? The other thing to note is how much ice we now see down the east coast of Greenland as Fram picks up its dumping of good ice into the Atlantic.
  4. Gray-Wolf

    Flu prospects this winter

    Indeed, the flu I caught was despite having had the jab. Recombination of the virus with any other virus inside a person leads to some nasty 'variants' of the thing and can lead to nasty impacts on society as we saw in the pandemic after the First World War? Then it took young ,healthy folk and appeared to spare older ,less fit folk? I wonder just how protected our under 35's would be if we saw a similar strain erupt over flu season and just how well our NHS would deal with any major outbreak?
  5. Well rambo it's because you said AGW and not 'man's pollution'? The globally dimmed period of 1940 to 1980 would have covered the period of max solar would it not? All that soot and sulphate would have done just what soot and sulphate does when Mother N. throws it into the atmosphere don'tcha think?
  6. Gray-Wolf

    Flu prospects this winter

    What is changing is the way post viral problems are now being more widely recognised? I think 'Yuppie Flu' was the start of such wide acceptance of post viral malaise and if there was ever a reason for the flu jab it is this quality of life ending 'sting in the tail' from viral infections. The flu virus is generally an upper respiratory tract infection so the blighter kills cells in your upper resp tract. If the virus is able to enter the blood stream then the cells it will kill are in the first ports of call namely the heart , the brain and the descending aorta. If you wish to live with the symptoms of flu , minus the snot and temp then try it out!!! Chronic fatigue, chronic vertigo, chronic muscle/ joint pain,brain fogs and all served up with periodic reactive depression from the impacts of it all! If you are ill go to bed and keep hydrated. Do not 'struggle on' and infect all and sundry as you do not know how it will impact others!!!
  7. Hi Pete! I think we both know 'Why' but it would be nice to hear it first hand , you know? colours to the mast an' all that. I think we all have to recognise we cannot strain out the impacts that man has so rapidly added into our climate to see the 'unadulterated' impacts of a long solar min. For those staking everything on a 'natural' answer to AGW ( be it maunder like min or flip in the AMO) they do not appear to have very long to wait to find out how pathetic a hope it ever was? T.B.H. if ever we needed rapid cooling it would be for the summer of 2019. The last thing we need is the 'new normal' temps across Yamal this coming summer. Russian scientists now have over 7,000 'pingo like structures across Yamal and we know at least 1,000 of those grew in 2016 so are timed to go 'POP' in 2019. Sadly the folk who Nino/Nina watch for us ( both Australian and american outfits) give us a 90%+ chance of seeing a new Nino form in Jan /Feb of 2019 meaning , even allowing for lag, the coming summer will have added warmth. Studies of the crater fields formed at the end of the last ice age point at 'joined up eruptions' occurring over a few weeks. If this is what is lined up then expect a massive , post eruption, warm pulse prior to the gas migrating globally. If we are unlucky such a warm up will merely make a bad thing worse by promoting further 'meltdowns' in the permafrost cap holding back the massive reserves of 'free Methane' in the Northern permafrost both across Siberia and in the East Siberian Sea. To bring this into focus my 'A' Level master in Geography taught us that we were thousands of years from running into any issues with the submerged permafrosts off Siberia.
  8. I seem to recall the cold winter of 09/10 was not massively 'cloudy' for the N.Hemisphere even with the loss of the solar wind to stop other cosmic interactions taking place...and all of this with the atmosphere's ability to hold water vapour on the up and up? MetO pointed out a relationship between low solar and northern Atlantic blocking over that winter and it did seem to hold true? Of course this was in the world prior to the 2012 Arctic sea ice crash so maybe we will see a differing outcome this time if the downstream pattern of the polar Jet was 'shifted' post 2012? My personal observations are that the washout summers were driven by the loss of sea ice over the Atlantic entrance into the Arctic Basin and now that the Pacific entrance has joined in the fun the positioning of the polar Jet has again shifted its 'average' station leading to a more high pressure dominated synoptic ( as the summer past illustrates?) Will low solar just add into this HP dominance or will it help cancel out the impact? More important ( to me) is whether we are slipping into the post 2012 pattern and next summer will be even more dominated by HP's and air masses from N. Africa/W.Europe with the Atlantic again blocked out of the picture. We may have hated the washout summers ( and it might have cost me a small fortune to keep the 'kiddies' entertained over washed out Summer Hols) but I fear the costs of a similar run of Blazing Summers will be greater and more widely felt than any of the 'flood events' were? As an aside the 'fools on the Hill' that ripped up the Moor above to look after their blessed grouse chicks in wet weather did not consider the greater impacts of their actions. The 'New' fast draining Moor might have flooded us twice now but the impacts of their measures over a dry summer nearly cost them the Moor over the past Summer. Any repeat will run the same risks of torching the Moor ( and Chicks) if a dryer than average Winter runs into another hot summer. The very channels they cut to drain the Moor will effectively draw air into the base of any fire that sparks up......
  9. I think we must also be mindful of our orbital forcings through the L.I.A. BFTV? We had seen far norther cooing for the preceding centuries so surely , across the far north, things were primed for a rapid cooling? The orbital forcing remains the same but the 'stacking of the deck toward cooling' has just melted away over the past century as the orbitally forced cool down was halted, and then reversed. The loss of snow patches/retreat of glacier/low summer sea ice levels also allows greater absorption of incoming solar in a way that was not possible over the L.I.A.. It is entirely possible that these changes alone will overpower any reduction in incoming solar that another grand min could bring before we even look at future increases to our GHG burden?
  10. Gray-Wolf

    Report Climate change ipcc

    Shakhova & Semiletov tell us there is enough 'free methane' trapped under the failing permafrost that if a 'fraction' were to be released it would double our GHG additions since industrialisation and yet folk think it cleva to frack???? After the hot summer of 2016 in Yamal over 1,000+ 'Pingo like structures were seen to grown across the surface of the region. Earlier this year prospecting teams found their sea floor equivalents that were massive compared to their land based counterparts ,well until we saw this reported; https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic/2018/08/more-and-bigger-sinkholes-yamal-tundra Shakhova/Semiletov are our 'go to ' experts for this region and Semiletov gave us a timeline for the appearance, growth and blowout of these structures......he says 3 years from start to finish.... So enjoy your IPCC outdated, expurgated nonsense a little while longer but don't say you were uninformed of the dangers to our North and its progression toward failure and climate impact! We had our chance in the noughties to make the efforts that would have avoided this situation but the paid climate change deniers , and their unpaid sycophants, made sure this was never an option......well done fella's ,way to cost us a planet and our lives!!
  11. Gray-Wolf

    Met office report

    With an atmosphere carrying ever more moisture I do not find this statement a problem Data? We have seen the polar night Jet become ever more dysfunctional this past 2 decades so 'polar plunges' can now provide extreme cold ever further south ( balanced by the heat/moisture we now see flood the basin over the dark winter months bringing above freezing temps into the high Arctic these past few years?). Our Valley ( not far from Irlam by the way ) has seen just what our new atmosphere can provide in the way of precipitation, any such 'atmospheric rivers' running into cold on the ground will give us feet of snow from a single event........ and it will bring chaos to our new levels of traffic esp. if the snow falls over a work day.
  12. Gray-Wolf

    Met office report

    I don't know whether Jethro keeps up with all things horticultural but 2017 saw a record number of vineyards open in the UK and again this year popular gardening media was advising we look to the drought and flood resistant plants for our 1/4 acre plots? I believe around the same time as the vineyard/med plkanting report was out we had some MetO chappie telling us that we were to expect a 'slowdown' in warming rates over that coming decade but that this period would terminate with as super nino and warming rates rising faster than their peak values over the past warming spurt. Throughout the noughties I oft repeated this forecast and , guess what came to pass? Since 2014 the planet has been in a warming spurt that does not seem to want to abate? Of course with Asia reducing its dimming and now the Pacific side of the Arctic catching up to the Atlantic side in its amounts of seasonal open waters we now have plenty of energy not available in the last warming spurt.......... and , of course, we have much more of those pesky heat trapping gasses in the atmosphere these days too! As for our UK weather? Well we saw a run of 'washout summers' linked to a trough out in the Atlantic allegedly driven by low ice over the Arctic. With the opening of the Pacific side of the Arctic basin that Jet pattern has been augmented and so has edged toward the opposite of that which fed us our 'Washout Summers' with this past summer being our first glimpse of this new 'stable' pattern. If this assessment is 'in the ball park' then why should we not expect this pattern to persist until the next major drop in ice cover over the Arctic ?( and the new jet pattern this allows to develop?) Another 3 summers like the last one will see our Gardeners wishing to have gardens that do not die each summer or to plan gardens which do not flood every extreme rain event that passes over.
  13. Gray-Wolf

    AGW derived events forecast for 2018!

    Hi Pete! The way I see it is if I , a lowly weather nut, can pull up a list of extreme/unusual events across a weather year and see them occur then something predictable must be occurring out there? If it was merely 'random' naturals, year in year out,then it would not be possible but if new forcings were tweaking our atmospheric circulation and leading to a set of responses then all of us would , by looking at recent years , be able to spot the 'new' events that were now a seasonal occurrence? I'm sure you are aware that I used to post quite frequently in the Climate threads ( here and elsewhere) but the changes in 2014 , placing us back into accelerated warming, signalled an end to any thoughts of me 'helping the Lurkers' to better understand what we have facilitated via our polluting. Basically the battle was lost and the climate change deniers won. Now we get to see the kind of world/climate they battled to impose on us for the past two decades? Anyhoos, for me the now 'seasonal' mangling of the trop/strat above the seasonally open waters of the Arctic, is the start of my 'Weather Year'. Forecasts predict the first peturbations of this area of the atmosphere in the coming weeks. It appears that the trop below will surge into the forming Polar Night Jet ( at the 10mba level). The mangling of the circulation will lead to impacts for us all in our hemisphere be it from 'Arctic Plunges' or 'Warm Air Advection'. Let the Games begin!
  14. Gray-Wolf

    AGW derived events forecast for 2018!

    It looks like the 10mba circulation is about to morph into its twisted shape over the coming 2 weeks. I had been quite impressed at the 'normal' shape since the start of October but this now appears to be at an end? As we start to inch toward winter I am now interested in the way the Arctic will impact/be impacted by the heat now being pumped into the atmosphere above the Arctic. With ENSO also pumping heat into the atmosphere I would expect quite a dynamic 4 months ahead of us? Who will cop for the early freeze this year? Will it be NE Canada/NE USA again? With eastern eurasia also see another battering this year? How much heat will we swee deposited into the High Arctic this refreeze? Will we see 80N pushed above freezing again over the dark of mid winter? Sadly we have seen a number of worrying reports this summer. From the 12 years and counting warming from the IPCC to the collapse in wildlife since the 70's to the underestimation of heat being culled by our oceans to the MetO's look back at the past decade of extremes in the UK. This underscores what I see as the stepping up of AGW as the naturals consolidate in their AGW augmenting phases and the Asian dimming drops out of the atmosphere allowing the Pacific to gain its full solar forcing. Since 2014 we have been slowly settling into this new period of rapid warming ( higher rates than in the last period of accelerated warming) but this time we have a number of tipping points that will fall as we move beyond 1c of warming the most worrying of these has to be the permafrost and CO2/CH4 outpourings now ongoing. The Russian discovery of both the giant 'Pingo like' structures on the sea bed of Kara ( mirroring the growth of over 1,000 'pingo like' structures across Yamal in 2015) and now the newly discovered 'active regions' in the east Siberian Sea ( additions to those we saw studied since 2010?) signal that the 'methane burp' is now ongoing and I imagine we would be wise to now expect much worse esp. if Kara/Yamal begin to have a knock on affect with the rest of the submerged permafrost out under E.S.S.? BFTP will not need his 10 years to clear his head on the issue. The issue will very much come to him!"
  15. Gray-Wolf

    Antarctic Ice Discussion

    The process that really does help explain the rapid ice losses across West Antarctica in past warmer eras can be seen in action in some of the ice terminating glaciers in Greenland and has nothing to do with volcanism! Gravity is the enemy not temperature! The mechanical properties of ice and the impacts of gravity is all that is needed to see an unstoppable collapse of the ice cover across west Antarctica. In Greenland we have seen that ice can no longer support itself when it is over 100m high. Anyone wishing to check the details needs to google 'Ice Cliff Fracturing' and then have a look at the channel between west and East Antarctica. The fact that the ice shelf is now over the last pinning point before we enter the rapid retreat that ice cliff fracturing will facilitate should be what folk are concentrating on not the role of mantle heat on the base of the ice sheet! We are at a point of the first domino being about to fall in a domino run that will see sea levels put on multiple inches over a decade and folk whitter about volcanic heat!!!
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