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    The Arctic ice loss

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  1. We had quite a big 'flush' over the 2012 GAC ( great Arctic Cyclone) with the freshwater lens in the gyre being dramatically reduced.
  2. Methane Gas And Climate Change

    http://envisionation.co.uk/index.php/nick-breeze/203-subsea-permafrost-on-east-siberian-arctic-shelf-now-in-accelerated-decline https://www.the-cryosphere.net/11/1333/2017/tc-11-1333-2017.pdf https://www.biogeosciences.net/14/2283/2017/bg-14-2283-2017.pdf https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms15872 N Shakhova, I Semiletov papers from earlier in the year.
  3. http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/Report-Card/Report-Card-2017 Arctic shows no sign of returning to reliably frozen region of recent past decades
  4. Antarctic Ice Discussion

    There is the yearly cycle from the sun over the poles of course! but the mixing of the strat from the trop is also now adding issues to our 'balance as is the circulation of the strat as we saw with the failed reversal of the QBO a year ago. The troposphere is not a sealed layer and the tropopause is frequently breached by over tall thunder storms introducing moisture and ozone into the strat and then 'odd stratospheric winds redistribute this over the entire globe via the knock on of wobbly PV's invading lower lats.
  5. Antarctic Ice Discussion

    Sorry stew but 'No' the impacts of the human generated ozone hole are well studied and impacts documented. Take a stroll around the Nasa site and see what we have learned since the early 80's. There are also questions over the impacts of warming on 'naturals' like PDO and IPO. The IPO negative saw some queer impacts over its life ranging from record strong burst of the Trades over the ENSO regions that lead to the record bulge of warm water out west ( the thing that fed two years of record kelvin waves pushing out prior to the 15/16 Nino setting up) but also the record levels of shear seen over the Caribbean over that period as the tropical Atlantic struggled to 'balance out' the two tropical basins ( calming 'cane's in the atlantic basin post 05'). We cannot see a Nino push global temps to 1.5c+ above the 1850's base line without expecting forced changes to the running of our atmosphere/Oceans can we? EDIT: Pine island is looking to calve again after the september calve ( thanks to wipneus over on ASIF)
  6. Antarctic Ice Discussion

    Between what we learned from Shakhova et all this autumn and what we are awaiting in East Antarctica from Pine Island and Thwaites I imagine its a case of fingers in the ears and a loud "La,La,La!" ? We go out on a La Nina across the ENSO regions but a global temp year higher than those of the Super Nino Year of 98'......... I'll not mention global atmospheric circulation esp. up in the strat after last years QBO surprises suffice to say it is no wonder we are seeing the Ozone hole rapidly healing in the Antarctic Spring........ but then that's not helping Thwaites and Pine is it? Well if trump gets his way he'll raise the regional temps of some areas of our world! Anyhow Seasons Greetings me eld mucka!!!
  7. Arctic Sea ice the refreeze 2017/18

    Hi Snipper! Maybe the Greenland thread or the Antarctic thread would have been a better spot as it will be their ice that swamps us but , then again, maybe it will be the changes to the Arctic that precipitate the changes that drive the collapses around Greenland/East Antarctica? The russian teams looking at the submerged permafrosts under the East Siberian Sea have warned us that we are not needing of a 'clathrate gun' event as there is massive amounts of pressurised CH4 in those reserves protected only by a capping of ice. Events on Yamal ( the exploding 'funnels'?) show us this 'cap' is failing allowing for rapid release of methane which , we know is a 'super GHG. Should we see the ice capping fail offshore then Shakhova ,et al, calculate that a 6% release would double our current GHG forcings over the first 20 years. Plenty of time to rinse and repeat with more of the reserves as global temps shoot up over a short period.? Such a warming spurt will surely lead to both Pine Island glacier and Thwaites glacier, on east Antarctica, retreating further up stream taking them both off their current resting points and 'floating off' the glacier from its ever deepening valley ( the channel that separates east from west antarctica when ice free?). This will lead to the rapid collapse of the glaciers as 'ice cliff fracturing' causes constant , year round, collapse of any ice standing over 100m above the water ( as we see now in some of the the Greenland glaciers) This glacial retreat runs under gravity and so is not temp related. The channel deepens from the ridge that both grounding lines are now sat on and so the ice is able to be floated off from the base as the ocean floods in. with ever deeper ice comes ever higher cliff faces and we know anything over 100m is unstable so will enter into constant collapse. this is a massive change and will bring metres of sea level changes over mere decades. When you look at global trade the flooding of our major ports/oil terminals over a matter of years will be a big challenge for humanity to face.
  8. Antarctic Ice Discussion

    I think it was a combination of things that brought us the step change back to where we were in the late 70's? The two impacts I feel that altered was the change positive of the Pacific drivers like the PDO to positive and the IPO to positive? This combined with a more rapid repair of the ozone hole meant that the conditions that were forcing ice away from Antarctica simply stopped. So we are now back to a state where Ozone loss is not forcing stronger Katabatic winds off the continent and so lessening the migration North of sea ice and an uptick in stormy weathers around the continent smashing out peripheral ice. Today we sit a good million below the 1980's average so we might also be seeing the impacts of 30 years of warming now crashing into the coastal regions to? Longer 'open water around our remaining ice shelfs and stormier weathers will lead to break offs from the shelfs in a way that was not possible whilst sea ice protected the region from swells? Sadly the pine Island/Thwaites regions are at a critical point and any further collapse up stream will take the grounding line off the underwater peaks their shelfs are sat on and into an ever deepening gorge. Recent papers again warn us of the rapid collapse we will see should their grounding lines shift as ice cliff failures lead to constant retreat inland resulting in the break up of the ice separating east and west Antarctic ( not seen for 125,000 years) and rapid sea level hikes swamping most port areas around the globe.
  9. My Daughter has to travel from West Yorks, via M/cr, to Oxford on Sunday to get to her uni interview......... of all the times for the midlands to see this type of weather!!! Where we are looks like minimal coverage and Oxford looks clear but all of the rest looks horrid for Her......... I suppose it's character building?
  10. My Eldest is travelling down to Oxford on Sunday for her interview at the Uni.......... I'm worried now!
  11. Well I'm sure I'll see it snow on Sunday but it'll be wet snow and slush up prior to the refreeze over night. Ankle breaker conditions by Monday morning I fear!
  12. I'm feeling really blessed with the rainfall today. most all of it has kept to our north ( just over the Moor for most of it) so the river is high but not troublingly so. I worry about my brothers and sisters in the Lakes/N.Yorks though. Still a few hours of it to come for them. Keep safe one and all!
  13. Well this is the thing David, what could we ever do but demand that we treat our home with more care and respect? From my limited experience it would appear everyone wants 'positive change' but no one wishes to change or be made to change? The sad reality is that we will be made to change by circumstances but we will, by then, have allowed things to become so bad as to all but guarantee such circumstances will occur? Whilst the kind of capitalism we see ruling our world is allowed to continue then the only driver will be profit no matter the human/environmental costs. We , here in the UK, just voted a bill through saying we no longer believe animals can 'feel'. Each and every one of those who voted should be made to kill a cow with a pen knife then they'd know if it was able to suffer as you or I would or not ! What chance of such folk turning their backs on profit in favour of environmental security?
  14. https://phys.org/news/2017-11-added-arctic-global-didnt.html https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0009-5 Well we saw how well Cowtan and Wray went down in some quarters so this further confirmation of continued, and accelerating warming over the denier slowdown/pause will probably also set some folk clucking? That this study is release amidst renewed record rates of warming might have the public pay more heed though? Most folk passing through this section will have a good idea as to what occurred over the Arctic through the noughties and this should have raised concerns in them with regard to temps even if the tropical Pacific was playing oddski? The impacts of Arctic Amplification need now be married in with the latest papers by the Shakhova team looking at pressurised methane reserves in the East Siberian Sea permafrost deposits and the rapid degradation of the 'cap' there...........
  15. We have expeditions into the Summer Barentsz blocked by 'cathedral like' expanses of ice. Since 2000 there has been no ice in Barentsz over summer and incredibly low amounts over winter. I have only experienced 'beached ice' once in travemunde ,Germany and the impacts on temp were huge with it being freezing close up to the ice but over 70f on the prom. If such a micro climate can be driven by the presence of ice then just think of that over the expanse of the Ocean to our north? The other thing to look at are the SST's across the region. The fact that it is open water tells us that it is 'warm' compared to when that stretch of ocean was sealed by ice? Over ice you can get -25c temps flowing, without such cold air is modified by the waters below? Those waters are also changed since 2000 with open water allowing 'normal Ocean processes' to take place there ans so wash out the Halocline which used to exist there to keep conditions for sea ice present all year. Now we see the north Atlantic drift push ever deeper into the basin at the surface again modifying the airs above. All of this said we have seen both PMR air from Greenland fetch us snow and deep cold from Russia also leave us open to frontal snow from encroaching Atlantic storms. With storms now carrying ever larger cargoes of potential precipitation the chances of maga snowfalls must also be increased if we have cold established over the UK prior to the arrival of such a storm?