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    The Arctic ice loss

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  1. I think the passage of the sun over into our side of the hemisphere and the warmer waters spreading out east will see temps raise up into neutral levels for the summer esp. if we see good heating and lack of cloud to the north and south of the regions. The last time we were heading down into solar sunspot min was 06' and I think we'd all like a bit of 06's summer ( tied with 03' and 76'!!!)
  2. Arctic Sea ice the refreeze 2017/18

    Is this just a wish to be seen to have the last word or do you have some insightful point to make here granpa? Either the findings of autumn 07' hold true or the basin has been so changed over the intervening years as to make it no longer true? for the rest of us this is the first 'low solar' year for which we can observe the basin and the predominant pressures since the last 'low solar' period? We've had eyes on the ice since 79' so we do have a number of low solar periods to look at including the two 'perfect melt storms' before 07' ( that were ten years apart) but this is the first time we have entered a low solar period with so little , and such thin, ice? If we see the same as we did last time then we have the 'perfect melt storm' of 07' to face, the record volume drop of 2010 to face and then the record breaking across all measures 2012 to face. Any one of these would leave us with very disrupted weathers heading into 2019 and that combined with the N Atlantic propensity for northern blocking over winter could spell trouble for NW Europe? As it is by May 1st we will have plenty of dark water across both Ocean entrances into the basin and probably a gaping hole on the Beaufort side of the inner basin. The NW Passage deep channel, at the Alaskan end, has also seen a pretty big clean out over the bering export in late Feb so we should expect the late formed ice there to be gone by May. All in all we will at least see as much energy soaked up by the basin as we did last year and minus the WACCy snowfall on our side we might even expect a more aggressive melt season so even more energy soaked up. Then we have the adjacent land areas? 2010 saw the mega drought in Russia and record number/scale of wildfires across the tundra. 2012 saw near all of Greenland in melt and the waters in the McKenzie delta hit mediterranean temps! With Yamal bursting in methane pockles (that grew in 2015 and 16') ,any extra warmth there will surely lead to a spate of eruptions? All in all it promises to be a very exciting melt season this time. It must surely hint at what we are to see over the coming low solar years or show us that ice melt has altered the way the basin operates these days? We have seen what 'high solar' summers have appeared to bring us ( cool/cloudy) are we about to see a change?
  3. Arctic Sea ice the refreeze 2017/18

    Since 07' I had held concerns about the return of the 'perfect melt storm' synoptic. As the years passed , and a cloudier basin emerged ,those fears allayed .now we find ourselves beyond the 10 to 20 years return period and slipping into low solar. Our recent SSW event, and the blocking that followed, has refired my concerns about the return of the perfect melt storm which involves HP dominance in the basin over the melt season ( plus a LP craftily positioned to allow a steady export via Fram?). The return of the sun to the basin has allowed the 'World View' sat images to show us the ice cover and also the lack of cloud we have been seeing on the Atlantic side of the basin this last 2 weeks as the northern blocking keeps skies there clear. We look to be taking the second poorest pack into the coming melt season? Let's hope we are not at the start of a number of years of HP dominant basin over low solar
  4. Arctic Sea ice the refreeze 2017/18

    Another 48k lost on JAXA for yesterday? That's over 170K the last 3 days! I'm thinking we have really hit max this time?
  5. Arctic Sea ice the refreeze 2017/18

    Another big drop on JAXA today? 72K lost on top of yesterday's 58K so quite a hill to climb to see any further 'max' reached? Let's wait until tomorrow and see if the losses continue?
  6. Arctic Sea ice the refreeze 2017/18

    I believe we're sat second lowest in the Piomas measures of volume? It has been another rotten winter for the ice . I just hope we have a kind summer for the ice that is there? We saw a drop on JAXA for yesterday and it will take some climbing back to that level at this time of year ( and the yo-yo that is seasons end!) If we see some more losses over the next few days we might be thinking about it being the start of the melt season?
  7. Arctic Sea ice the refreeze 2017/18

    JAXA saw a 57.5 K drop for yesterday? f we see that behaviour continue over the next few days ( a lot of the recent 'growth' was just 'flow and grow' of existing ice breaking up and triggering 15+ in adjacent squares of the mask?) We can now see all of the peripheral ice on the NASA worldview portal so we can see the southern extremities of theses 'migrations' of peripheral ice hitting hostile waters and maleting. Well we saw the 'flow' ,I suppose now we watch it 'go'??? As events , for all peripheral areas, it has only appeared to weaken the periphery of the main pack by 'relaxing' out into areas further south. The fragmentation may ice over behind but this is very late formed FY ice and will not last as the sun gains height/time in the sky and it melts leaving the edges of the main pack fragmented and ready to float off.
  8. My missus has her snow shield up so Calder valley? Nope!
  9. Will somebody confirm that I've had input here , both over the beast, and now son of beast to call off the bot saying i've had nowt to say??? jaffa cakes poor synoptics for the BFTE II with it obviously veering ever south with each tun .....and it's March! The fading of the polar night jet as it undergoes it's end of season 'final warming' ( even though its off centre position places half of it in direct sunlight for over a week???) so no help there? We are in a time of extreme LRF forecasts due to the basis of such forecast running at the extreme of there programming. The last output just pulls away any moisture from the UK leaving Lincolnshire and Norfolk, along with the SE the only places to see anything other than pretty , sunlit, vflurries???
  10. Well my missus will be happy if we see nowt over the weekend so folk in the south enjoy!! Sunday is my ( and my Son's) birthday so we can have some pretty showers then if you like? As it is I think we will see things shifted ever more South as we near T zero? Just a question of wrapping up from the raw winds for the North!
  11. Arctic Sea ice the refreeze 2017/18

    Indeed BFTV and with so much open water in the peripheries the 15% or above measures can also see the peripheral areas break up and float into these open waters and promote growth? I think I'll just have a nap until April!
  12. Arctic Sea ice the refreeze 2017/18

    JAXA back after its Hols and would you believe it we passed March 1st whilst they were off!!! We are now 20K above that previous high of March 1st! This said we must now be on the wind down to the seasons max?
  13. Arctic Sea ice the refreeze 2017/18

    https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3224.epdf?shared_access_token=_Sp9tm8C3gSr2EmgUgMP7NRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0Nk-zVIn420LEvTImRafD2IjN4nrsfCTPuVwvNjQbbjNP15lhY6QNTkMg7BuAsxzdnyLkXgM39kM0Pv_Se5NdsShRYhBAiWZNLe9moe6RRRvAoizOL5_k4I7Tw7pmHsHK8%3D&utm_source=Daily+Carbon+Briefing&utm_campaign=d4f8d24c28-cb_daily&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_876aab4fd7-d4f8d24c28-303476449 And above is a look at a paper from back in 89' and the modelled predictions of the way we would witness Arctic amplification...... i wonder how many of the folk who once poured derision on the findings will now hold up their hands and appologise? This is a new trend as we now begin to have the '30 years of observations' some 'faux sceptics' always seem to demand? Of course, had we acted on the models 30 years ago, things would be nowhere as bad as they are positioned today?
  14. There is a ghost in the machine! Somewhere there is a mighty amount of energy waiting to manifest in the models but the models are not sure yet just what to do with it? If it is to be the Arctic again spilling its guts then it will bode very badly for the year as we haul out into spring.
  15. https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=0.97,92.44,311 We seem to have misplaced our Ferrel Cell.....or is it our Polar Cell? Whichever it is I was brought up with 3 Cells in each Hemisphere and not just a sub tropical Jet separating pole from equator? The energy that drove the SSW is still reverberating around the atmosphere and we have already seen hints that we are due another huge MJO departure. This time lets see the jet hoisted to our north and stay there for the rest of spring and summer!