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Gray-Wolf

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    Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
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    Life, the universe, and everything.

    Where next?

    The Arctic ice loss

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  1. Well I'm going to go on the assumptions that low ice is indeed 'tweaking' jet patterns and also that low solar has been recognised to 'coincide' with blocked N. Atlantic winters. I believe low ice , since the turn of the century over Barentsz/Kara lead to the setting up of a summer/winter jet position that culminated in the 'washout summer years' but also supplied moisture for the low solar winter of 09/10. I think the record drop in 2012 sea ice extent/area/volume saw other areas now become 'seasonal' in their ice cover putting another dollop of energy at the disposal of the northern climate system? This has seen our summers, the past two in fact, slowly move away from 'washout' and towards more dry/sunny? This summer sees a further consolidation of this new 'average Jet shape/position' over the UK. No more SW trough now more a ridge to our north? So , winter? Well it looks blocked due to low solar and blocked due to proximity to the ridge? But then what of the Polar night Jet? Where will its deformed/twisted shape set up winter camp? If it favours NE Canada/NE US again then we'll see a cold but dry winter ( I can do dry cold!) If the bugger positions over est Greenland/Sweden and all points south then expect an early and snowy winter!!! My money is on the blocked, cold winter but not a brutal ,Siberian fed winter, just home grown W.Europe cold? I think a cold pole over Greenland and the PNJ split into that dumbbell shape again over Canada/US and over Eurasia. I think it has to do with the 'open water Arctic sites' being too messy directly above them for the jet to hold station??
  2. Well the first ex tropical storm of the season. When they blow up they can alter forecasts significantly so we needn't be down in the dumps about FI forecasts until the high season is over for storms? I'm enjoying the warmth of this one currently and it looks like i'll get a sunset!
  3. Well what pleasant temps to sit out in? I wonder just how low temps will be allowed to drop tonight as the parcel of airs that once wrapped around a tropical storm flow over us? I wonder how much rain my plants will get from it?
  4. Had this drawn to my attention; https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018JD028714 Looking at Atmospheric Rivers and their impacts both on melt and mass balance via increased snowfall events ( as we witnessed along East Greenland last year as the lows bound for the Arctic Basin trawled up that side of the land mass? My concern has been the potential for 'maga' avalanches if individual events leave unstable masses on top of the ice sheet? Such rapid movement to lower elevations would mimic the saddle/lobe melt of the great ice sheets at the end of the last ice age? 'Gravity' is not temp dependant so both Ice cliff fraturing to remove Glaciers/ice shelfs in rapid order and avalanch both use gravity to bring ice/snow into melt zones that could have remained stable for decades? When the papers looking at 'hot house' potentials talk of 'cascade' events making matters worse and these may well fall into the 'cascade' category?
  5. Gray-Wolf

    Arctic melt Season 2018

    I'm sorry G.S. but I'm not laying it all at the door of low sea ice it is just the most altered of the forcings?
  6. Gray-Wolf

    Arctic melt Season 2018

    Sadly , Blessed, there are still those cheering the fact that we are not rock bottom and so ignoring the decadal trend in favour of 'yearly weather'? For those of us that find Jen Francis 'on the money' with her interpretation of what becomes of all the energy now absorbed by open water/land surfaces (that once was bounced back into space or spent on melting ice) then the potential for even more 'seasonal Ocean' in the basin is deeply disturbing? I know it is very over simplified but if the turning seasonal of most of Kara/Barentsz through the noughties lead to the Jet positioning that fed us our 'washout Summers' then the 2012 opening of most of Beaufort/ESS/Chukchi might have lead to a re-positioning of the jet position to that which we have seen this summer. This would mean that we have a run of Summers to come with similar synoptics to this years and only ending either when the Ocean areas either become ice covered year round again or another portion of the basin opens seasonally and that added energy in the climate system further augments the jet positioning? I know our washout Summers were bad but the extremes we have seen this year are also pretty grim? I did not see the NHS running at capacity over any of the washout July's but this year it did!
  7. Gray-Wolf

    Arctic melt Season 2018

    The ice lifted of the North Shore of Greenland over recent days. If we do see any nasty lows then the ice will be easier to drive without any connection to land? ESS also looks awful ( apart from a central 'spine' of good ice?) so any chop or waves will finish most of the ice real fast. The DMI80N temp has continued to rise? 2016 did have a 'blip' ( up and down over a few days?) but that was another 'open pack year' ( Santa's Swimming Pool?). Let us see what tomorrow bring us? If the Latent Heat of Fusion is now losing control over temps there then the heat flowing into Laptev could make quite a big blip Nullschool are showing 10c temps over Laptev a.t.m. so any of that could fuel a 2 or 3c rise in the DMI80N temp and we should all take note it being the first time such has happened in the record!
  8. Gray-Wolf

    Blocked setup duration

    If this is tied into the whacked out jet then we might be well served to look at the 'ridiculously Resilient Ridge# ( triple 'R') or our own 'washout summers' as a guide? We saw 7 years of the washout summers as the trough repeatedly positioned itself to our west. With further opening of the Arctic sea ice ( 2012) then have we not .after the same lag period as we saw since the opening of Barentsz/Kara, seen this move toward our own version of the triple 'R'? If so then we may find ourselves with this until 5 years after the next Arctic Ocean areas become seasonal?
  9. Gray-Wolf

    Arctic melt Season 2018

    This I found interesting. It is by 'sark' over on the A.S.I.F. and represents a reanalysis, month by month, of 2007 to 2017 Vs 1979 to 2000; It highlights how , at 2m , the Latent Heat of fusion pegs temps over the melt season and how solid ice allows the WAA to pass, unhindered into the Arctic outside of melt season? Over summer the DMI80N is pegged to around freezing by this effect. When the ice above 80N is failing we would see this relationship with the Latent Heat of Fusion fail and the temps of the water below become reflected? here is today's DMI80N from the above are we now seeing the temps beginning to break the old pattern as the ice goes and open water begins to overpower the Latent Heat of Fusion? Watch this space!
  10. Lunch time today we had a lone shotgun clap of Thunder that not only set off car alarms but seems to form the central point of any conversation in the valley!
  11. Wow! that was close/loud! Shotgun lightning to the west of Hebden bridge out of that little streamer of cloud currently flowing over us! Saw the flash and was thinking " Nah" when the windows/doors were rattled by the thunder ( then the car alarms set off!).
  12. Gray-Wolf

    Arctic melt Season 2018

    Hi Reef! If you take a lot at the 'solid blob' of ice on worldview you'll find it looking like the surface of a hand granade? If any swells arrive in the basin the removal of the ice now melting out will open this ice up to such swells and it will fragment along those existing fault lines. If there is wind involved then you can see that shattered ice export into the now open ocean areas and so face nore severe bottom melt than they would as a central pack? I think this is part of the evolution of the basin that we will eventually go ice free one year? The first 'crackopalypse event followed on from the record low year of 2012. The ice was so thinly spread that it could not withstand the 'normal' forcings of wind current and tide. This has continued each year so any remaining ice faces further fracture ( and re-cement) the following winter. over time you evolve a pack that will readily collapse into small floes which have a very different melt mechanic than a solid , contiguous pack? So the same amount of energy that once left thin ice will then melt out completely? If we do not see any return of the 'perfect melt storm' then , to me? it appears Mother N. is already working us toward average summers taking all of the ice?
  13. Gray-Wolf

    Arctic melt Season 2018

    I'd noted this but I'd also noted that it names just Barentsz and Kara? Though we have not been seeing yearly records broken since 2012 what we have been seeing is 'new' areas ( apart from Barentsz/Kara) now becoming seasonal in their ice cover ( Chukchi/half of Beaufort, most of ESS) and if it took until 07' for the Atlantic 'ice free' areas to begin to show impact then maybe we should be seeing a change to the 'stuck weathers' some areas have seen since 07'? For us this was the 'washout summers' we saw since 07' but I have seen these fade the last few years and this year a new 'stuck weather' pattern has imposed itself with the jet no longer troughing to our SW but ridging far to our north? If the energy open water accumulates over summer is driving Jet anoms then the extra Ooomph from Beaufort/Chukchi/ESS may be behind the modulation in the jet pattern ( with the rockies always playing the role of pattern set up?) and so possibly meaning a run of such summer until we see even more areas become seasonally ice free and even more energy deposited in the atmosphere at summers end skewing the Jet further? I tell you what you can say with great confidence. The formation of the polar night jet ( so know it as the polar vortex?) will be untimely ( late ) and its position well skewed from its 'normal', historical, positioning. Should we be able to do such a thing as predict abnormal patterns in the polar night jet this far out? Come back to me in late October and tell me how I have done!
  14. Should I be interested in the hook that has formed on the west of the storm heading out into the north sea from Norfolk/S.Lincs?
  15. Gray-Wolf

    Arctic melt Season 2018

    Well it is make or break time for my observations regarding Beaufort/ESS. The extreme heat advected over ESS as the first two big storms rolled into the basin has certainly done a number on the ice there but how much of that heat passed into the ocean there? The melt momentum is the unknown as if this is strong then no matter the weather the water the ice is sat in will melt it out anyway. I also think that beaufort is near blink out and we know that the Pacific side has seen heat accumulate there over this melt season. As I say the potential for around a 2 million loss over a couple of weeks is there should most of the ice be at a similar thickness now? One thing that is clear to me is that we keep dodging the bullet and most all of the FY ice that makes it through to become second year ice will be very thin at the start of refreeze ( as it was last year and the year before) so the measure of ice age is a tad misleading with the bulk of the thickness of that ice , come melt season next year, will be grown over this coming winter. That means a thin skim of ice 'x' years old sat on top of a slab of FY ice ( and its melt characteristics). some folk just see ice and extent/area measures but the basin is evolving , I think , toward a seasonal pack and that the recent changes to pack behaviour are a move toward this end with a pack incapable of surviving an 'average' melt season. Any extreme melt /export summer will be a deal breaker and may empty the basin by early Aug of that melt season.
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