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About Gray-Wolf

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    Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
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    Life, the universe, and everything.

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    The Arctic ice loss

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  1. So is that really you up in Tuk?

    Well done you star!!! You are an inspiration to anyone with an interest in Climate Science!!

    All the best, keep the mozzies off yer,


    1. Show previous comments  1 more
    3. BornFromTheVoid


      Have a bad morning, anyweather?

    4. Gray-Wolf


      I'd prefer to take that in the old Mike Harding stylee of "I hope it rains!!! I hope all't Donkey's are dead!"?

      Anyhoo's you're probably a lot warmer than us a.t.m. !!!

      Just been enlightened by Ms Francis as to the 'two to Tango' suspected involvement of PDO positive and the extension of the triple R into the Alaskan side of the basin and so why we see quick retreat of the ice over on the Pacific side these recent years...... I wish I'd watched when it came out last year!!!!

      All the best!


  2. So it's all eyes on 91L then? I suppose Gert is what we are looking for in the UK if we want a chance at shifting this cool jet trough over us? Maybe it could back track and leave us under a ridge the rest of summer now? As for 91L I think I can already see rotation so let's see how long it takes to get itself organised?
  3. We saw a little of it last year but this is huge by comparison! I have concerns about the 'hibernating carbon cycle' buried beneath our ice sheets but i hadn't considered this 'fast track' in the returning of this carbon back into the current Carbon Cycle!
  4. I think any move toward a higher energy basin will shift us away from the type of basin that encourages recovery of the ice cover and instead releases the energy from the ocean itself eventually moving from a season ocean to an ice free one even witrhout the input of 'warming' to drive things along ( though we will keep warming!). Since 07' I have voiced concerns over the loss of the Halocline, the layer that marked out the Arctic Ocean from all other world oceans. Ice loss opens up the basin to swells and wave action ( no longer damped out by ice cover) mixing out the 'layers' below. this can bring up warmer Atlantic/Pacific waters and lead to rapid bottom melt of floes. Thin floes can be broken up by swells as wave crests stress the ice. Such swell activity will result in floes breaking down to more 'stable sizes' for that wave height/length/interval? Smaller floes expose more surface area to their mass ratio's than do larger floes and so absorb heat faster and so melt quicker. We are 'evolving' a pack that will not survive an average Arctic summer.
  5. As with last year the ice left will predominantly be over the Trans Arctic Drift ( T.A.D.) or above Fram. Should winter prove as stormy then a lot of that ice will be gone by spring ( as we saw last winter?) so we could again see low volume gains as any growth is masked by losses? I suppose it is the way the basin is shaped that dictates where storms of strength can enter? Either Bering side ( which activates the T,A,D, or Svalbard side ( and activates Fram) t is as if the basin is set up to be ice free with the 'cogs' being storms entering the basin , and the conveyor belt the T,A,D and Fram?
  6. Well that was fun for an hour or so! One clipper and one straight over us. Shame it wasn't night as some of the lightning was multiple strikes but most of it lost to the light. Height road, about 1/2 mile up the hillside, took a beaut CG strike with near shotgun thunder. Not expecting any more as it all shifts east but it's wet my appetite!
  7. I think we are at a point of 'faith' in what we believe to be the state of the ice? The only 'real measure' is melt out of existing ice and so we sit and wait. If we believe the thickness measures were spot on then we might scrape through above 2012 but maybe not in volume which would be record low. If excess snow cover threw out the sat thickness then there may be a nasty shock on its way as we see areas of rubble drop out of the picture and a far less 'compact pack' emerge?
  8. You have to be aware that the 80N temps are pegged by the latent heat of fusion ( which is why the 'average line' stays so close to Zero?) once we are not seeing melting ice , and the ocean below is sealed, you see huge spikes in temps away from average? When we see that period of the graph that sits above zero begin to throw such spikes we know we are in trouble as the latent heat of fusion is no longer 'chilling down' the area i.e there is no ice to melt.
  9. Again I'm still waiting to see just what that 'thinner ice' does do before re-freeze is called? If an 'average summer' does melt 2m thick FY ice then 1.5m ice should be no problem to melt? This week and those following ,are my best guess for when this ice would go so I will now watch to see if we begin to see losses we can't put down to weather alone? I do not know if we will see any big storms over August/September but that might also lead to sudden drops in area as the ice gets tossed around in the ocean? As for the cyclical 10 to 20 year cycle for the 'perfect melt storm summer' has our circulation now altered so much as to negate that cycle completely? What we have to get used to is open water from early in the season? We started off low over our , and the Pacific side of the basin so those peripheral waters have been gaining heat all summer. This ,in its turn, leads to a messy Autumn /early winter and the basin sheds heat and messes with the formation of the PV ( which then messes with the positioning of the Polar Jet?). We can expect this again over the start of re-freeze but will it be as extreme as last year? We are also tip toeing into the time of year we see Yamal making headlines? Two years ago it was the funnels , last year the 'hillocks' and wobbly ground. I wonder what we will have this year?
  10. Well it had been a record slow melt year with the largest snow accumulation on record..... then this; There was a lot of rain over S/SW Greenland from the 19th so maybe we're seeing runoff and snow melt ......and there's a lot of snow to go at esp down the East of the island?
  11. It looks like only geo engineering could have any chance of undooming us from more than +2C global warming

    1. Gray-Wolf


      I(t just worries me as that is how we got into this mess in the first place! I suppose this time around we will be very mindful of our impacts though?

      I am sure carbon capture, of various applications, will become widely available to us should we will it so ...... it is just getting that 'will' organised and I'm still afraid that it will take something truly horrible to garner it from the masses?

      No politician wants to commit to massive spending on this but once they are 'forced to' then it will not be a 'choice' ( free will) but a 'response' ( forced action)?

    2. Lettucing Gutted

      Lettucing Gutted

      The question is, what "force" would it take?  If it takes something devastating like a methane burp or the irreversible collapse of the remaining icesheets or all the rainforests or any combination of the above to "force" the world into action then even the most powerful and farfetched geoengineering won't save us from a runway greenhouse state.

  12. I'm starting to think that the north wales activity is all we will see today? It will drift up the Irish Sea and mess with the Cumbrian coast and on into SW Scotland but anywhere further East is done (IMHO). The Shield of cloud over the Midlands has slowed any of the 'home grown' storms from forming and we're now running out of sun to spark them off. I do hope I'm wrong as I'm so envious of the folk who saw that light show last night!!!
  13. Antarctic Ice Discussion

    We know ( or should?) that warmer sst's will eventually limit the extent that ice can grow to. Throw in some energy from storms and the peripheral ice is broken off and tossed in the warmer waters so melts. We have seen this over some Antarctic winters where a Major storm has dropped figure by over 1 million sq km. I believe we saw a change begin in 2014 but the late freeze season breakup of the peripheral pack 'expanded' extent/area as the fragments pushed 'open water' beyond the 15% cover so became classed as 100% ice covered. In Antarctica where the peripheries expand outward this can happen leading to a big max but then a rapid decline for the very beginning of the melt season as the fragmented ice drifts out firther or melts our in the open waters again dropping below 15% cover and so instantly 'ice free'. The healing of the Ozone hole is also behind recent changes reversing the expansion we saw over it's life time? If we see reduced Katabatic outflow then we do not see ice pushed north and 'ice factories emerge in the polynya's caused. It has all been a case of the worse possible timing. both the alleged 'pause' in warming and the sight of ever expanding antarctic sea ice helped the paid deniers win the debate over intervention and stronger mitigation against the worse that AGW would throw at us. We have now passed by the point of no return and so will miss our 2c target even if we ceased activities driving warm ing right now. We will see 'variability' in sea ice cover but I believe we are past 'max Sea ice' for Antarctica and levels will rapidly drop away to those modelled earlier with areas like ross Sea seeing marked reductions in cover bringing issues of longer periods of mechanical weathering on the ice shelf beyond.
  14. 2017 Tennis Thread

    I can't watch! But if he's suffering he'd not progress anyway?
  15. Antarctic Ice Discussion

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-40321674 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jul/12/giant-antarctic-iceberg-breaks-free-of-larsen-c-ice-shelf We will now find out what this means for the ice behind? Is it flawed and so will collapse? Will the feed ice speed up?