JohnAcc

Dewpoint 1.0 In Wolverhampton,We really need to see this drop to around 0 if we are going to see any decent snowfall

7.0 please

I'll go for 4.3 please. Rgds, John

Every chance of a below average month now. Quite remarkable the current reversals in temps. Rgds, John

No probs, So far the GFS looks spot on the money to me Rgds, John

Current model output suggests that a low 5's finish for December will us with a 10.49 annual CET. The 10th warmest on record. However given the first 4 months of the year it is a marked turnaround. Rgds, John

Another big 0.5c drop yesterday with further drops to come over the next few days. I'll keep this graph updated to see how close the GFS has called this one. Rgds, John

I'm not sure high 5's is favourable at the moment. As indicated earlier if the models are picking up correctly on the westward movement of the high then low 5's looks to be favourite. I agree that on current model outputs around 4.7 by the 20th looks about right. Rgds, John

Hi Joneseye, Yes Kevin called this one earlier yesterday morning. A 0.4 drop yesterday and from what I can see a further 0.4 drop per day for the next 4 or 5 days (depending on cloud cover). I fear my 6.1 and your 5.9 may, just may be a tad on the "high" side. Rgds, John

The ECM and GFS are both now picking up on the trend for the high to retrogress westwards over the UK in the later time frames which will result in us having continued seasonal ground temps for a while longer. I have updated yesterdays projections with this mornings 06z run and it will be interesting to see where we end up and how close the GFS is. I seem to recall SF saying last month that the GFS pretty much nailed temps from quite an early period. This mornings output would return us a CET bang on the 71-00 average Rgds, John

This is how I see Dec finishing up from here. I would estimate a 5.4 / 5.5 ish finish which will be slightly above the 10 year mean. It's very early doors yet and obviously subject to change depending on how long the block holds and whether we end up in a southerly flow after / (If) the high sinks. Rgds, John PS Does anyone know where I can find the running mean through the month for the 61-90 and 71-00 averages?

After looking at the current model output I agree that my lower range was probably too low. I think on reflection 10.5 - 10.75 is where my range would be and I would be favouring a 10.6 return. Cooler than last year (Joke)

There have been 41 instances in the CET series where Dec has returned a higher figure than Nov. The last 10 being:- 1993 (Cold Nov @ 4.6) 1988 (Mild Dec @ 7.5) 1985 (Cold Nov @ 4.1 plus mild Dec @ 6.3) 1974 (Mild Dec @ 8.1) 1971 1965 1942 1934 1923 1921 Rgds, John

I used the following figures:- Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 7.00 5.80 7.20 11.20 11.90 15.10 15.20 15.40 13.80 10.90 7.20 which gives me 120.7 cumulative degrees. If i add on 7.4 it takes me to 128.1 cumulative degrees which, divided by 12 gives me 10.68. Have I made a school boy error somewhere?

If 10.68 is the current projection are you saying that your predicting a Dec CET of 7.4c (warmest since 74?) if so, a very bold statement this early in the month. For me the range is still anything from 10.35 - 10.75. However as we stand, I would lean towards the higher end of that scale. Rgds, John