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D KARLSON

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  1. Very difficult to predict how this cold spell will pan out, its certainly a case of how cold ,prolonged and how much snow decends to lower levels. One factor that cannot be overlooked is the previous cold winter, which has lowered sst ,s to our north and east and also the residual cold air that still sits over Scandinavia ,this will allow the air dragged in to be that bit colder than it would otherwise be and these synoptics have the potential to produce some quite widespread snowfall even for low ground. details are going to be hard to pin down, but the the potential is certainly there !!!!!!!!!!!!
  2. [blocking remains well north apart from one shortish spell but it could develop into a more pronounced spell but I'd currently rate that risk as 40:60.
  3. there is literally no weather to speak of at present, and synoptics wise there are no deep low pressure systems or intense highs its almost as though our the whole circulation has shut down ,these are very unusual synoptics to my eyes especially when you consider this is spring. At the moment its hard to envisage where any rain will come from, never mind low pressure systems delivering rain and strong souwesterlies and by the same token without active lows its difficult to imagine a northerly occuring. Perhaps the adage out like a lion could apply to this March as i would expect at some point the Atlantic to power up but where from, it would not surprise me if any energy from the jet asnd lows if they do occur come from a northwesterly or westerl;y quadrant thus delivering near average temps for most but once again scotlands high ground could well see more snow with temps on the cool side of average and perhaps mid march before any of these changes occur
  4. I think i only ever gave the easterly scenario a 50% chance of occuring ,but that does not mean it could not lead on to another cold solution further ahead. the models are extremely fickle at present and will continue in the same vein as long as these unusual synoptics are present ,just about anything is possible after the winter weve had and cold outbreaks are quite likely through this Spring !!!
  5. Well the METO are on board with regards another cold snap, with Wintery showers forecast from the 6^th onwards and i think probability wise you could Say a 60% chance as things stand ,and as the models role out over the weekend and possibly firm up on this idea that could rise to 70%. In winters past this scenario would be an outside bet, but things have changed and i would certainly bet on some kind of cold snap occuring and i think its more a case of how severe rather than if. If you compare previous statistics of winters past and this being our coldest since 78 /79 ,in this winter the snow and cold came to an end as March began, but came back with avengeance mid month with more snowfall and there were further snowfalls in April and even May ,what this demonstrates in this instance is the delayed effects of spring and the increased likelyhood of further snowfalls after a prolonged and cold winter ,so we really should not be surprised if this winter follows in a similar vane !!!!! I certainly think this will give Scotlands skiing industry a much needed boost of confidence and they could well be seeing further snowfall right through till May
  6. Never say never and looking at the confusion of the models just about any scenario is possible except of course our usual sou westerlies type synoptics ,with the suggestion of high pressure taking hold somewhere ,but where ??? This will be the crucial point in the coming week as to where the high takes hold and going by previous cold winters it will always have a habit of sitting and redeveloping over cold ground eg; the near continent and scandinavia wheres although its a good deal milder its still cold and groung temps must be very low . at this stage its guess work ,but if a high does develop then there is the risk that it will develop and intesify over the near continent and bring another cold snap and im sure the METO are keeping a close eye on this as it is a real possibility although its only one of a nuber of scenarios. Keep an eye on the models tonight and tomorrow and see if they develop this theme at this stage a good 50% chanmce of this occuring !!!!
  7. Chaos theory certainly applies here, the charts are constantly changing and this at 24hrs and 36 hrs pointless even trying to draw any inference ,the only certainty is uncertainty. However as some of the earlier posts hint at ,there is the possibility of severe weather even a rain snow mix with gales thrown in as some of this much warmer air from spain is chucked into the mix and could well produce some unexpected results as it mixes with the cold air. As far as snow is concerned its Scotland that is going to suffer and that will continue to the case with cold air stubbornly hanging on inthere could well be more snow events going into next week ,cue pictures from the BEEB news of people getting airlifted from snowed in villages !!! quite a common occurence in days gone by when february can be a very snowy in month in Scotland even into March
  8. tonight could be interesting, with the onshore winds dont be surprised if theres a few snow showers tonight which could give a covering in places
  9. Snow will be the theme over the weekend and into next week ,and as temps start to edge down ,temps will edge to the cold side of marginal which will allow the snow to be more widespread, when and where ?????? Whats been a surprise looking at the charts is how some of that very cold air over scandinavia is sneeking its way back in on the back of these lows ,you only have to look at those night time lows in Scotland -15 in places i believe and some -6 s further south. Now i dont believe these temps were progged at all and that is down to the exact synoptics not being progged ,the slightest error in position of these lows will have a disproportionate effect simply due to the intensly cold air over scandinavia and how much this cold air is tapped into by the synoptics. If we look at the synoptics progged ove the coming days there is low confidence certainly in detail and this will cause a large margin for error in forecast and as these lows appear to be pushing up on a more southerly track with each output this will allow more of this very cold air to be dragged in to the equation. TO SUM UP; There is a lot of potential for heavy snow just about anywhere over the coming week and this may have been underestimated by some of the forecasts and february is Known for being the most treachorous month, keep an eye on this one !!!!
  10. No snow at all here in N Yorks save for hills ,having looked at the charts this morning i noticed the low to the east is now very close to the east coast and this looks like a player as we go into the weekend ,there is even a chance of some colder air filering in for a time.
  11. Cant disagree there ,but there are some subtle changes in the models this morning and Met website also alludes to some of these changes with wintry showers forecast for the north and east this indicates a trough of low pressure sliding south east and introducing easterly winds or southeasterly ,with high pressure once again building over scandinavia and russia. Temperatures over scandinavia and russia are set to plummet almost reaching record values in Arkhangel with nearly -40 forecast and this intensely cold dense air is slowly pushing west and south west with the high pressure ridging towards us. Although i cant see the BEEB sticking their necks out just bet , a big pattern change could well be on the cards as i cant see this low hanging on much longer than next week ,before this biterly cold air simply barges it out of the way and although i try to to be as objective as i can i think there are some straws to clutch for cold lovers here lets see if the models or at least the UkMO can continue the theme 60% or even 70 % chance at the moment of this very cold air returning !!!!
  12. Just had another look at the charts in detail and i think perhaps some snow potential has been overlooked !!!! As the associated fronts clear most of the uk ,apart from the south east and scotland a rather cold polar maritime airmass comes in this could well bring in some heavy showers that as they cross the pennines and push east are likely to turn to snow and sleet especially as they encounter those colder nightime temperatures to the east even lower ground is a possibility ,certainly one to keep an eye on
  13. Although it cant be ruled out, a return of the very cold weather to our north is a long shot at present but thats not to say things wont change in a week or 2. For those looking for further snow, we have been spoilt of late and now its a run of bad luck from a snow perspective and cold, but as ive said before with the cold continuing to hold strongly over Scandinaviathe chances are in favour of another cold out break perhaps as we go into march and disruptive snow is still a possibility
  14. Inference; I think at the moment there is low confidence past 120hrs and ceratinly past 144hrs , that said the models still suggest rather cold if not cold weather persisting especially over scotland , but further ahead is not really worth commenting save for a 50% chance of another cold outbreak. As for the fax charts showing the cold front pushing south east monday ,tuesday going from previous similar events i think there will be some lowland snow produced from this front as the intensity and timing could well bring things on the right side of marginal certainly the potential for some heavy wet snow.
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