Tom Quintavalle

Remember early xmas morn 1970 very well. Listening to the strains of "Sailing By" on radio 4 and waiting with much excitement for the shipping forecast, whilst watching great fluffy snowflakes drift down by the light of a nearby lamppost. I believe there was a huge crash of thunder with one of the heavy snow showers, which by lunchtime on xmas day, had deposited the best part of 4" in Bromley, N.W.Kent. Regards, Tom.

Impressive squall here about half an hour ago, very gusty winds, heavy rain, some hail, a crack & a rumble of thunder. Brightening up now from S.W. Regards, Tom.

Afternoon all, Steve M. great read as ever. The one aspect of your "Winter Ode" that stuck in my mind way back in November was that I didn`t realise how important the Greenland High was in working in tandem with a Scandi High in producing prolonged spells of cold weather for the British Isles. How prophetic your "Ode" was in relation to this winter. We finally saw a true Greenland High in the final days of Feb. & as we now know it produced some noteworthy snow & cold in some parts, notably N. & E. Scotland & parts of N.Ireland, N.Wales & N.W.England. Shows what happens when you get a true GH & not a mid-Atlantic high ridging north. If only it occured a month earlier but I suppose conversely we might not have seen as much convection in inland parts due to lower temps. We had four consecutive days of light flurries down here but wasn`t expecting anything anyway. `Twas ever the case with that kind of wind direction. Had we seen a direct northerly for the whole week it`s poss. we might have seen an elusive polar low. The season as a whole certainly felt more wintry than it has done for quite a few years. Philip Edens` amazing stats. re. lack of double figure maxes in his part of the world bares testament to this. I don`t have any instrumentation here but even in S.E.London I don`t think there were many double figure maxes, certainly compared to recent years. The number of frosts down here was noteworthy too. One really frustrating aspect of this winter, like so many in the last ten years, has been the failure of January yet again to produce anything really wintry. Statistically our coldest month & lying as it does in mid-winter, even with a weaker Atlantic than we`ve seen for some time it still couldn`t produce. Like last winter we came close again to seeing some bitter air arrive from the east only to see the northern arm of the jet have just enough strength to sink a Scandi High just when it looked likely to deliver. We`ve had to wait to late Feb/early March again to save the day, ( As someone said the other day, late Feb/ early March the "post even larger teapot"). One point I`d like to throw into the mix is that I felt that substantial snow cover allied with colder temps. arrived a little too late for my liking over Scandinavia this winter. Had this got more of a foot hold in December perhaps that weakish arm of the northern jet would not have been able to sink the Scandi high so easily, and perhaps it would conceivably have been able to ridge towards Iceland & Greenland, thereby driving bitter easterly winds right across the country as by that time Russia & E.Europe were bitterly cold as we know. What do you guys think about that theory? Although a frustrating winter on the whole, it`s certainly been interesting synoptically. Anyway guys & gals it`s been great fun reading all your comments & sharing the rollercoaster of emotions with you. Group hugs & huddles. B) Ci vediamo prossimo inverno. ( See you next winter ). Regards, Tom.

The 2nd very slight flurry here at 3.45. Regards, Tom.

Very lightest of flurries about 2.00, looking a little threatening again to the N.W. now. Expecting another flurry any moment. Regards, Tom.

Just starting to snow here in S.E.London at 55mts. asl. Fine & very light at the moment. Regards, Tom.

Went very grey here in S.E.London a few minutes but sad to report only a very light rain shower. Hardly surprising though. Regards, Tom.

Light intermittent snow between 5.30 & 7.30 p.m. while at work in Croydon. Wasn`t heavy enough to settle, mind you it did well to make it to ground level & get through the warmer layers of central Croydons` microclimate. Regards, Tom.

Evening all, I feel like a grumpy old mans rant tonight. I suppose its just a bit of weather geek snobbishness but we seem to have caught the modern day disease of having to label everything inappropriately. I must admit to being guilty of it myself when posting on here, probably for the sake of brevity like everyone else. It`s most notable when discussing synoptics. Any rise in pressure to the south of us in winter is now a Bartlett high, likewise any rise in pressure over Norway, Sweden & Finland is a Scandinavian high. The one that really bugs me is "Channel low", as in "is that a "Channel low" I can see developing at T120." Now this seems to be attributed to the slightest cyclonic curvature of an isobar that happens to find itself over the English Channel no matter in which direction the poor thing has arrived from. Now it might be a low and over the channel but its not a Channel low as we know it ......Jim. I`ve even heard the term used in summer! Aaaghh!. Now when I was a lad (cue brass section and Hovis advert)...............and snow was streaming down, I would have to go to shops and get 2/6d worth of Esso Blue so the whole family could huddle round the parrafin stove in the kitchen, layer of ice forming on your cornflakes, -8c on your paper-round (on the milder days.) None of that namby-pamby central heating, oh no. No sitting in nice warm bedrooms playing with computer games when I was a kid. I would amuse myself by chipping ice off the inside of my bedroom windows or by making patterns on the frosty glass. You young-uns don`t know you`re alive. D`ya wanna mint lovey? I digress. My understanding of a "Channel low" is that it`s an area of low pressure moving from w/s.w in winter into a large block of high pressure and frigid air to the N.& E. of us and a battle between mild & cold air results, with attendant heavy snow.This is what the term meant in the 60`s, 70`s & 80`s. but since then it`s been dumbed down. Below are a couple of classic examples: 30th Dec.1962 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119621230.gif The resultant snowstorm added to the very decent snowfall in the south on the 26th/27th. 31st Dec.1978 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119781231.gif I like to think of this as a retreating channel low. For all of the preceeding week low pressure had been forced further & further south across the Atlantic by a powerful block of high pressure stretching at times between Greenland as far as W.Russia. Snow lovers in the south could not have wished for a better track for this low as it moved due east up the channel & out into C.Europe. So in my opinion this kind of movement of an area of low pressure typically is what should be termed as a "Channel low". Along with the other examples I`ve quoted, these set-ups are unique and only occur when all the requisite factors are in place and should not be confused with vaguely similar synoptics. Rant over & no offence meant, I suppose I`m just a sad old man wishing for a return of the winters of his childhood. Who knows perhaps this winter? Regards, Tom.

Morning Tucco, Nice one. As for your price inquiry N.Ireland now 3/1. I work for a Bookmaker, what do you expect, charity? Regards, Tom.

Morning all, Now for a bit of fun. WHICH LOCATION WILL BE FIRST TO RECEIVE A VISIT FROM A BBC BREAKFAST FORECASTER SHOULD THERE BE SNOW? PRICES & FORM GUIDE BY HONEST TOM. 2/1 11/10 - HIGHLAND & ABERDEENSHIRE. Worthy favourite & very useful early season performer. Came in for a blizzard of money when tipping expert Steve Murr flagged up Huntly as a prime location for snow a few days ago. Must surely go close esp. if Carole Kirkwood is given the mount as she could stay with relatives thereby saving the BBC on expense budget. Likely to struggle against media biased southern based runners later on in the season as BBC budget runs out. Will have advantage on other runners as likely to reach starting post first in up coming cold blast. 5/2 - N.YORK MOORS. Has perfect profile on northerly tracks & many times course winner sure to give fav. a good run for his money if not giving away to much ground at the start. Certain winner later in the season. 5/1 - PENNINES. Could well go close if snow restricted to high ground like Alston ( fav. of reporters & forecasters alike). 8/1 - PERTHSHIRE. 2nd string to highly fancied northern neighbour & favourite. One to note if C.Kirkwood gets the nod & fancys a bit of shopping in Perth. 10/1 - SHETLANDS. On paper would take all the beating but far too remote and harsh for pampered southern based weather girls. Do the BBC know where it is anyway? 16/1 - N.IRELAND. Plucky winner of an event a couple of seasons when given a brave ride by C.Kirkwood as she was nearly unseated in a blizzard just outside Belfast. Could surprise at a decent price if adapting to track. 33/1 - CUMBRIA. Possibly unsuited by track of up coming blast but one to note later on in the season on a N.W. track. Will OON be tempted? 66/1 - LINCS. & E.ANGLIA. Probably too early in the season for this one & a bit to find on form with N.YORK MOORS. Sure to pop up later in the season if given the chance on N.E. track. ( Norwich a fav. with forecasters & reporters alike.) 200/1 - ESSEX & KENT. Again too early in season & stable rumours suggest running too high a temp. to figure. But should this classy individual be given a chance on N.E/E. tracks later on in the season must not be missed. Very close to southern based media & would save a great deal on BBC expense budgets. Might be worth an ante-post punt for later in the season if an easterly track is hinted at, prices would shorten dramatically nearer the event. OTHERS ON REQUEST. WEATHERWISE SELECTION (Already advised Ante-Post): HIGHLAND & ABERDEENSHIRE 20 pts @ 2/1. NB. Prices subject to massive fluctuation and any prospective punter likely to be told that the cleaners have had the price anyway. Regards, Tom.

"The fog was so thick in the centre of Bristol yesterday evening that it drizzled, even though I could still make out the Moon! So it's quite possible it did snow where you are, in the form of snow-grains precipitated out of the fog." Hi Thundersquall, I don`t know if anyone noticed last night but on BBC Ceefax at around 11.00/midnight the report for Shrewsbury read -5c and light snow. Mind you we know what ceefax is like, probably an input error. Can anyone confirm this? Regards, Tom.

Hi Steve & GP, Steve, if you`re right in your assumption re. wxrisks` winter forecast & the specific elements of the forecast, how would that impact on N.W.Europe, esp. the U.K? For what its worth heres Accuweathers winter forecast for the U.S: http://wwwa.accuweather.com/promotion.asp?...age=winterfrcst Regards, Tom.

Hi Paul & shuggee, Thanks, the 60`s were a great decade for snow lovers weren`t they. I remember the late 60`s well and it was commonplace to get 4 or 5 good snow events even in S.E.London/N.W.Kent, every winter. Nowadays we`re lucky if we get one!!! Regards, Tom.

Hi Steve, What really took my eye in your "ode" was the section on Feb`55 ( my birth year) and the potent northerly of that month that lasted for many days. As you state, we have not seen a northerly as potent as that since. It reminded of the time that my interest in meteorology really kicked in, the winter of 1968/69. Its not cited as a severe winter but produced quite a few northerly outbreaks with reasonable snowfall, although not as long lasting as Feb.`55. I`d like to take you through a few of the charts now. Notice how strong the Greenland high remains through most of the winter and the persistence of high pressure over Russia as well, the two working in tandem ensuring that cold air was never far away from our shores.The main northerly outbreaks came just after Xmas `68 and in Feb. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119681226.gif Boxing day `68. Pressure had risen sharply over Greenland around mid-Dec and cold air finally streamed south on this day. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119681227.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119681228.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119681229.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119681230.gif A very wintery theme to post xmas week with prolonged snow showers to N & E. and more general snowfall to S & E at the end of the week. The weather then relented at the start of the new year. Although the weather was less wintery through most of Jan. I would like to show you a few of the synoptic charts of that month to illustrate the persistence of high pressure over Greenland, and for that matter to our N.E., during that month. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119690105.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119690110.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119690115.gif Jan.15th, a beaut. of a chart, full of potential, would of had us ramping to our hearts content but actually came to nothing. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119690120.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119690125.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119690130.gif During the first few days of Feb.`69 pressure fell over Greenland but this was only a temporary blip, it rose strongly again soon after and bitter air swept south again on the 7th. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119690207.gif On the 8th heavy prolonged snow showers, accompanied by gale force winds, caused chaos across the country as troughs ran down in the northerly flow enhancing the snowfall. A few reports from newspaper clippings I have from those days: Drifts cut off villages of Ditton & West Malling (Kent), 100 m.p.h winds recorded at Kirkwall (Orkney) and worst blizzard since 1955. Other badly hit areas were Guisborough( foot of N.York moors) and Great Driffield ( East riding of Yorks.), two areas that always get a pasting in these set ups. There is a photograph of St.Pauls cathedral with snow swirling around it in the light from lamp-posts which no doubt some of you have seen in a few weather books. Below is the synoptic chart of that event. ( Note the many kinks in the isobars, would have loved to have seen radar returns & satellite shots of that day). http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119690208.gif After a brief respite another surge of bitter air swept south. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119690212.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119690213.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119690214.gif As low pressure transferred south down the N.sea and settled to the south of us, winds turned more towards the east, prolonging the cold spell and snowfall. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119690215.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119690216.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119690217.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119690218.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119690219.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119690220.gif A few days later the weather became less wintery but its a great example of instead of a northerly being a 2 day toppler, in the past , they quite often developed into an easterly, with the right synoptics, as Ian Brown & Steve M. often point out. Also the importance of the Greenland high and how it interacts with high pressure over Russia to bring us our most wintery of weather types. Anyway the winter of 1968/69 was the first time I really started to take an interest in meteorology and paved the way for my SACRA membership. Wonderful times they were, BBC forecasters such as Bert Foord (it is spelt like that!), a sort of young Richard Briers look-alike, and Graham Parker ( your friendly bank manager type) brought this fascinating winter to life on our screens, and fired the imagination of a 13 year old boy. I kept very crude records and even tried to draw the synoptic charts I had seen on the t.v. forecasts. On one chart I have 2 areas of low pressure in the N.sea, one north and the other south. No slack area of pressure in between them, oh no not for me!!, I`ve got them with their isobars running into each other in a criss-crossing pattern. Aaghh!! I thought it was brilliant at the time but I cringe every time I see it now. We didn`t have video recorders and pause buttons in those days you know. Anyway that`s enough from me. Thanks for the memories. Regards, Tom.

Sorry, Forgot to thank TWS & WBSH for their work in this section too. Well done. Regards, Tom.

Steven, Absolutely brilliant, a veritable tome there mate. An important reference guide for us all. Love the intro. too. Regards, Tom.

Hi Mr. & Mrs.Moo. Many congrats. to you both. Wow what a size, thought my 2 were big enough, Antony (8-6) & Hayley (8-4). May i say ,without the slightest hint of modesty, what a great 1st christian name you`ve given Moo. jnr. Will he be Thomas, Tom or possibly Tommy for a while. I was Tommy for a while but got embarassed when people still called me that in my late teens!!! Kind Regards, Tom.

Snowing lightly here in S.E.London. Regards, Tom.

Few snowflakes around in the wind at the moment from line of ppn stretching back into S.Essex. Regards, Tom.

Sleet here, keeps trying to turn to snow. Right on edge of main band of ppn. Hope it turns to snow if we get some heavier stuff. Regards, Tom.

Snowing when i woke up at 7.30 this morning but wasn`t settling, stopped by 8.00. Dusting on cars and grass from snow last night that fell between 6.00 and 9.00. Regards, Tom.

Few flakes in the wind here late morning. A light flurry about half an hour ago. This now makes 8 out of 9 days with snow falling here during this cold spell. This is a quite remarkable total for S.E.London at the very end of Feb. in the modern day winter and is testament to the great synoptics of this current spell. If only the prevailing wind was E/NE and not SW. Although snowfall has been mainly light, some quite heavy snow fell during 2 Thames "streamer" events on Mon. night and Fri. morn. when winds went round to ENE, the optimum direction for decent snow here. Regards, Tom.

Just started snowing ( moderate), at work in Croydon. Regards, Tom.

Few flakes in the air here now. That`s snow falling on 5/6 days in this current spell . Quite unusual for these parts as its so late in the season. Regards, Tom.