Tom Quintavalle

Now come on Irene, this really is cruel!!: Rain radar & weather forecast | Meteoradar Regards, Tom Q.

Er NO, Fl. Nottingham is probably far nicer than Mottingham. 'Er indoors used to work in a Residential Care Home in Elmstead Woods, a short walk from Mottingham. Does a Snow flurry in Mottingham mean that I now have to keep peeping out of the curtains, like nosey Neighbour Michael Paine. As in, "Did you know, it's Snowing outside number 42? Not many people, know that.": Regards. Tom Q.

There you go Fl. In the extreme North of this map of the Borough of Bromley and about 1.5 miles from where me and 'er indoors, live: By the way, did you enjoy the first episode of After The Flood? Me and 'er indoors can't wait for episode 2. Regards, Tom.

Happy Birthday mb. Just for you Come On Eileen Irene: Come on Irene, that's just cruel!! Met Office, with yet another tease to get the Mad Thread, excited: Wednesday 31 Jan - Wednesday 14 Feb After a likely milder, more unsettled spell during the preceding week, into early February there is again an increased likelihood of high pressure having greater influence on UK weather patterns. There is uncertainty in exactly where high pressure will become established but this increases the likelihood of drier conditions. There is also a greater than normal likelihood of winds from the east leading to an increased chance, compared to normal, of cold spells. Whilst a drier and colder scenario is most likely during early February, there remains a chance of some milder interludes with spells of rain and strong winds, especially across the north. Meanwhile in entertainment news, the first episode of - was very good. ITV about to release another blockbuster Series entitled - AFTER THE THAW. Regards, Tom Q.

Right, time to be serious for a few seconds. Below, is Annie Shuttleworth of the Met Office with Tuesday Afternoon's, "Deep Dive": Turning much milder over the Weekend but with some Rain, and strong Winds. Then High Pressure likely to build in from the South. Therefore, likely to become dry and settled again but remaining mild with the source of the air, from South in the Atlantic. Below, is a link to MeteoGroup's take on the Weather for the Week ahead, courtesy of Stav Danaos Weather for the Week Ahead - BBC Weather Right , I'm off to watch the following with 'er upstairs: Mmm, once a Weather Geek, always a Weather Geek!! Night all. Regards, Tom Q.

Lass, is that down to the M.J.O [Maddening James Oscillation], by any chance? Makes me dizzy, just looking at it!! But be aware, if James fancy's a bit of C.O.D. [Circle of Doom] then we've had our chips!! Remind me to put a cheque in the post to you Lass, for setting me up for this nonsense. I will now return to my Day job, of being a Daily Star headline writer: Meanwhile, it's pretty obvious the only PLAICE to be Tomorrow is in the English Channel, where the Fish may see a Snowflake: Right with that, I think I'll get my Swimming Trunks!! Regards, Tom Q.

The 00z Model Runs are not a Million miles away, from that 500hPa archive chart I posted the other Day of the severe Snowstorm that struck our Region, on the Evening of 30th December 1978. ICON 00z Weds 17th Jan 12z, 2024 00z 31st December 1978 But for the purposes of Snow for our Region, it might as well be!! Those of you on our S.E. Coast may be able to take a Boat into the English Channel, and catch a Snowflake and wave the rest goodbye, as it disappears over Northern France. Regards, Tom Q.

Good Morning all. Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well. Loving the "No Snow gallows humour", Lass. Meanwhile at my nearest observing Weather Station [London City Airport], it's been a pretty chilly Night. Even the Point of the Dew, dropped to -6C. At this point, Sammy Snowman - would like to apologise for not being able to conduct a Countdown to Christmas Special back in early December, as his Author was facing his own difficult Countdown to Christmas, due to being under the Weather with a health concern. But aren't we all under the Weather, Thomas? After being able to get out and stretch his Legs, in the last few Days, it looks as if Sammy will have to retreat once more into his - Sammy would also like to apologise for the failure to arrange a S.S.W. [Sudden Sammy Warming]. This was due to the breakdown of talks with the E.U.S. [European Union of Snowmen]. It's been hard to negotiate a deal with the E.U.S, after U.K. Snowmen were forced to withdraw from the E.U.S., after Brrrexit. Now due to an ill wind blowing in the Mid West, caused by - Donald Rump. This in turn is likely to stir up - - JETHRO JETSTREAM – All American Boy [Aka,The Pest from the West]. and seemingly encourage - - PURPLE VENOM – Polar Vortex [Aka Pernicious Victor/Purple Blob], to return from his short vacation in Siberia. Resulting in - - GRETA the Greenland High, and Cousin - SVEN the Svarlbard High, not being able to link up with - - SCANDY MANDY, the Scandinavian High. Poor - GINA the G.I.N. [Greenland/Iceland/Norway] Corridor, fears she is about to be overrun. Gina is downing even more Alcohol at the thought of - - BARBARA the BARTLETT High /EUNICE the EURO SLUG, making a reappearance. Thereby scuppering the chances of a - - BEAST from the EAST. Right, the Author is obviously in need of his medication and faces his own S.S.W. in his nether regions, in a few Weeks time, with some carefully directed Radiotherapy. - Sammy Snowman would like to apologise to Malcolm and in no way wanted to turn this Thread into a South East version of that MAD one, in that "other place"!! Just a light hearted antidote to the "doom and gloom" merchants, elsewhere on the Forum. Regards, Sammy Snowman/Tom Q.

Evening al, Just a P.S. to LAWRENK's poser about February 1991, earlier this Morning. Below, are some 500hPa/850hPa/2 metre temperature archive charts for 7th February, that Year: If memory serves, the South Eastern Region of British Rail had recently invested in a new fleet of Trains. The very fine powdery Snow fell at temperatures well below freezing, and pretty unusual for the U.K. The strong Easterly wind blew the fine powdery Snow and it managed to find it's way into the electrical systems, of the new fleet of Trains. And below, is a Wikipedia explanation on how the "The wrong type of snow"/the wrong kind of snow" phrase, came into being. "The wrong type of snow" or "the wrong kind of snow" is a phrase coined by the British media in 1991 after severe weather caused disruption to many of British Rail's services. A British Rail press release implied that management and its engineering staff were unaware of different types of snow. The phrase originated in an interview conducted by James Naughtie on BBC Radio 4's Today Programme on 11 February 1991. British Rail's Director of Operations, Terry Worrall, was asked to comment on the adverse effects of the unusually heavy 1991 snowfall on railway services that winter. Worrall explained that "we are having particular problems with the type of snow, which is rare in the UK". Naughtie replied "Oh, I see, it was the wrong kind of snow," to which Worrall replied, "No, it was a different kind of snow". The exchange prompted a headline in the London Evening Standard saying "British Rail blames the wrong type of snow" which was swiftly taken up by the media and other papers. The cold snap had been forecast and British Rail had claimed to be ready for the coming snow. However, the snow was unusually soft and powdery and too deep to be cleared by snowploughs – it needed snowblowers. The snow found its way into electrical systems and caused short circuits and traction motor damage in trains. For traction motors with integral cooling fans and air intakes pointing downwards – the type that is still common on British electric multiple units – the problem was made worse as the air intakes sucked up the loose snow. Meanwhile, the snow also became packed into sliding door mechanisms and into points, causing them to fail. In addition, low temperatures resulted in problems with electric current collection from the third rail. Many electric services had to be replaced by diesel haulage, and emergency timetables were introduced. Long delays were commonplace – up to eight hours in some cases. The disruption lasted over a week. It wasn't a great period for British Rail as a few Years earlier, they were the subject of ridicule again. Again if memory serves, they had bought a Snow Plough from Norwegian Railways but it was of the wrong gauge, and not appropriate for the gauge of British Rail's, network. But below is an image of a Snow-Blower that British Rail had sent down to the South Eastern Region, from the Scottish Highlands. Here it is in action on the Hoo Peninsula in January 1987, so that oil supplies could get through from the refineries, at Grain: The above image was reproduced with the kind permission of Ian Currie, Co-Author of the Kent Weather Book. Below, are some 500hPa/850hPa/2 metre temperature archive charts for 12th January, 1987: The above examples of February 1991 and January 1987, further proof that a "Beast from the East" scenario, courtesy of a Scandinavian area of High Pressure, rarely fails to deliver for our Region. Regards, Tom Q.

Much thanks, lk. Remember February '91, very well. Wasn't that the infamous Southern Region, "wrong type of Snow" event? I think this is the Ian McCaskill forecast, you're talking about: Regards, Tom Q.

Morning all. Mmm , these Models really can't make their mind up, can they. Meanwhile, the 00z Hokey Cokey run says predicts this: But perhaps this 'fella has called it correctly: Think that any disruptive Snowfall will come as we go into February, when N.W. Kent will be cut off. One teleconnection the Modals won't have factored in will be the L.O.S. [Law of the S-D]. Sidcup will now doubt become inaccessible and isolated, as it's then I will more than likely beginning a daily course of Radiotherapy, for Prostate Cancer. No Long Range Forecast is as accurate, as that teleconnection, You heard it here, first. Regards, Tom Q.

Much thanks, Vortex3929. Just a P.S. to my explanation. The "Channel Low" that resulted in the Snowstorm that struck our Region on the Evening of 30th December 1978, was pretty unusual with regard to its shape. Its centre was elongated and managed to maintain that shape, as it moved, along the English Channel: Therefore, the flow remained in the East, from a frigid Continent. I collected Newspaper cuttings of many severe Wintry outbreaks over our Region, and maximum temperatures in Cities and Towns the other side of the North Sea, were well below freezing on the preceding Friday and a few hours, before the Snowstorm struck. What tends to happen when an area of Low Pressure approaches from the S.W. and engages bitter air on its Northern flank, the Ppn may start off as Snow but if the Low Pressure has more of a "Bowling Ball" shape, the flow will veer more to a S.E. or S. This will result in Southern areas of the U.K., obviously including our Region, being infiltrated by milder air from the English Channel. And like Anne Elk below, that's the theory anyway, ahem!! Lows approaching from the S.W. are normally round and NOT thin and elongated, like the Channel Low of 30th December, 1978. Meanwhile, the Low Forecast for next Week and possibly cause some disruptive Weather, just to prove me wrong has developed that elongated shape but has gone all "shy" on us, and disappeared over France: Therefore, it could well remain mainly dry but cold next Week, until a possible warm up next Weekend. Regards, Tom Q.

Oh dear, Lass. Is it a case of Wuthering Withering Heights around Greenland, as this Lady once sung about? You might need your Earplugs: Well "our" Kate was born just over 6 miles East of my location. Oh Heathcliff, has the thin Lady just cleared her throat and sung time on this Winter? Regards, Tom Q.

Good Evening, all. That's an interesting point, My Amateurish reason would to do with the bulk of the landmass of England, being North of the M4. Thought I would post up an image of Southern England, to illustrate my point: An area of Low Pressure moving up from the S.W., with winds on it's Northern flank arriving in our Region from an Easterly point, has to draw them in from the S. North Sea/Thames Estuary, meaning more of a Maritime influence, than those areas North of the M4. Plus that Region South of the M4 is also at the "mercy" of a Maritime influence, from the English Channel. Due to the temperature of the air being colder over the expanse of that land North of the M4, Ppn is more likely to remain as Snow, rather than transition to Rain. In the S.E.,, as well as other areas South of the M4 that Maritime influence can make conditions more marginal, for Snow. Any movement of Low Pressure from the S.W, has to be with almost "slide rule" perfection for Ppn to remain as Snow, and not turn back to Rain. Speaking of "slide rule" perfection and being an old f--t, below is an image of a Synoptic set up, which has to be my favourite Synoptic chart and has been my "Wallpaper", ever since I owned a Computer. This being the huge Snowstorm that struck our Region, and other areas South of the Midlands, on the Evening of 30th December, 1978: This was a very unusual Synoptic set up, and rare as the proverbial Chocolate Tea Pot/Hen's Teeth. Remember which former NW Member of our Region, often used that metaphor? Answers on a Postcard, please. As I've stated many times, on the the Evening of 30th December, 1978, I witnessed the most severe conditions I've ever seen when taking into account the combination of driving Snow/gale force Wind [Easterly]/sub zero temperature. I was 23 at the time, and I doubt I will witness conditions as severe as that, again. As we know the Southern North Sea/Thames Estuary can be our "friend" when a flow comes across that body of Water, when the Upper Air [850hPa], is very low and coming at us from a bitterly cold Continent to our East but there are times when a Maritime influence can tip the balance between our Region having Ppn remain as Snow, and not turn to Rain. I have a lot to thank Netweather for, regarding the chances of seeing Convective Snow from a direction of between North and East. Being a Teenager in the late '6ps/early '70s. Right hands up who shouted 1860's/1870/s?? But all joking aside, back then I was at the "mercy" of the BBC and their Forecast Summary Charts, which when depicting the Forecast om a Day when there was a cold flow from the N.E. arriving over our Region, with all areas South East of line from the Wash to the Isle of Wight, covered with the following text - Snow Showers, heavy and prolonged at times. This Teenage Snow Lover couldn't understand why in his home location of Bromley Kent, on the S.E. London/N.W. Kent border and therefore well within that BBC Forecast area of Snow Showers, heavy and prolonged at times, stared with jealousy at Snow laden clouds well to the East over mid Kent, whilst over our House, there were clear Blue Skies. It was only when I became a Member of Netweather that I started to understand the process involved, when Snow Streamers develop over our Region. A North Easterly, very rarely delivers for S.E. London/N.W. Kent, apart from a few light Snow Showers/;Flurries. A flow from the N.E. has the whole of East Anglia to cross before arriving over S.E. London/N.W. Kent, and by that time the air has lost any moisture it has picked up, from the North Sea. I soon learnt that the optimum direction of flow to witness some convective Snow, was specifically from the E,N.E. From that direction, the flow stays in contact with a source of moisture, i.e, the Thames Estuary and doesn't have time to dry out before shedding its Snow over the Thames Corridor area. It was only when I became a Member of Netweather in January 2005, that I fully started to appreciate what was required for Thames Snow Streamer formation, to occur. Apart from that very rare Synoptic set up in late December 1978, Thames Snow Streamers have always provided the deepest Snow, in my area of S.E. England. I hope my possible understanding of why the M4 line is often quoted as the difference between Snow and Rain occurring, is helpful. Regards, Tom Q.

In good working order Pete!! And being Bromley born and bred, don't forget or most famous resident - The Godfather of Science Fiction [H.G. Wells], wrote - Regards, Tom Q.

Morning all, again. Shall I really jinx our Snow chances next Week, by attempting the foolhardy Synoptic "pattern matching". The Synoptic chart on the left, is from Tues. 8th December, 1981. As I'm an old f--t, I remember the December 18981 event, vividly. I lived in Camberwell S.E. London. at the time. Heavy Rain transitioned to heavy Snow, during the early Morning Rush Hour, and even though Camberwell is an Inner London location and the ground was very wet from the heavy Rain that had been falling for a couple of hours, surprisingly the Snow settled quickly once the intensity kicked in. It still remains the "best" Rain > Snow event, I've witnessed. This surge of bitter Arctic air that Morning was the catalyst for ushering in the very Wintry December, of 1981. On the right, is the European [ECMWF] Model as it sees the Synoptic situation in the late Morning, next Tuesday [16th]: / / There you go, I've really jinxed our Region's Snow chances, now!! Regards, Tom Q.

A very good Morning, all. Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well. I see at one point this Morning on the MAD Thread the ECM Model went from Zero to hero, after yesterday Evening's "toys out the pram" tantrums but now the inevitable contradictory and recriminatory posts, have taken over. If our Region is not to get Snow next Week, and I've given my own selfish reasons why I wouldn't want to see too much of the "White Stuff", below is an image sent to me by my eldest Sister of the Snow that fell a few Days, ago: My Sister lives in Riverhead, near Sevenoaks. Regards, Tom Q.

A very good Evening, all. I hope I find yourselves and your Families, well. Mmm, can't believe for the first time in my life, I'm dreading seeing Snow as we go further into January/February. As I stated the other Day, after getting a diagnosis of Prostate Cancer a Week before Christmas, I will be starting an intensive course of Radiotherapy, further into January/February. I wonder if the Models have factored in the Law of the S-d, into their calculations? Below, is the Weather for the Week ahead Forecast, presented by Stav Danaos on behalf of the MeteoGroup Forecasting Agency: Weather for the Week Ahead - BBC Weather I see the European Model [ECMWF] has caused a lot of toys to be thrown out of prams, this Evening. And there was me thinking that after the 00z ECM run, the European model was God's gift to Meteorology? Surely all this knee jerk reaction to every frame of every Model Run, can give rise to another medical condition, affecting the wrist/mind? That being R.S.I [Repetitive Strain/Stress Injury]. Regards, Tom Q.

Right my final post before this Old F--t, has to take his obligatory Afternoon nap. My final contribution for now, a Youtube clip of this Afternoon's Met Office Forecast, courtesy of Alex Deakin: Regards, Tom Q.

No offence throwoff but to my untrained eye, the following expected Radar returns, will have this about right. FWIW, I think the amount of Snowfall seen has been, has roughly been what was expected, and apart from perhaps a light Snow Shower, I wouldn't expect a lot more, now. Below, is a link to the Dutch Radar Website [Buienradar] Buienradar.nl - Buienradar.nl - Weer - Actuele neerslag, weerbericht, weersverwachting, sneeuwradar en satellietbeelden WWW.BUIENRADAR.NL Actuele buienradar en actueel weer voor Nederland en Europa, actuele satellietbeelden, actuele temperaturen, neerslag, en veel meer! Well that's the theory, TSMWK but I stand to be corrected and of course, hope I'm wrong, Just saw a Forecast from Chris Fawkes, there was a definite reduction in Shower activity as we go through the Afternoon. Of course the Wintry Ppn we are seeing currently was due to the interaction between those -12c 850's and the +8c temps over the Southern North Sea, a few hours ago. With a reduction in those 840's, you should see a resulting reduction in Shower activity, as we go through the Afternoon. There was also a bit of convergence going on, as well. The rest of the Week for our Region now looks dry but remaining cold, with some Frost and Fog about at Night. Then next Week, another surge of Cold air is expected from the North but that's not a great direction for Snow, for our Region. Our best chance of seeing Snow could come from a disturbance in the flow, running down from the North, or perhaps courtesy of an area of Low Pressure attempting to move in from the S.W,, and riding up against the entrenched Cold air, with an initial period of Snow but this is usually a temporary affair, with the milder air usually winning out. But as I'm due to start a course of Radiotherapy at Sidcup, in a ferw Weeks time and am concerned how road conditions will be like at that time, it/s S--s Law, we are in for a severe spell of Wintry Weather!! Regards, Tom Q.

Coming down a bit more noticeable now, in S.E. London. Yes, agree Daniel. As you can see below, those -12c 850's over the Southern North Sea have moved away Westward, therefore the differential between the Upper Air and the body of water reduces, thereby weakening Streamer activity, / Regards, Tom Q.

Mmm, behave Lass!! Having had a diagnosis of Prostate Cancer a Week before Christmas, 'er indoors is getting jealous. Now, that's real Gallows Humour!! Regards, Tom Q.

Well you could explain to your Teacher that Meteorology "overlaps" and tell them, you want to go outside and investigate. I was lucky at my Secondary School. my Geography Teacher, was my form Teacher and had a Weather Station, adjacent to the Classroom. Weather Geek here got to operate it, and took readings at 9 A.M. and 1 P.M., in doing so I was excused from Morning Assembly. And back in the late '60s it snowed regularly in the Winter but I got pelted with Snowballs, when trying to take readings but it was how Meteorology, became my hobby. Wife tells me it's Snowing again, here. Regards, Tom Q.

Yes same here in Lee, Lass. Did think it would be mainly a Kentish affair. Mmm, there are likely to be plenty of Kentimetres about, later!! Regards, Tom Q.

Thought I would post up the following Youtube clip, for those new members in our Region, wondering about the dynamic process taking place over our Region, currently. Apologies, as it's on the other side of "The Pond" but it is the same process as what is occurring over our region at the moment, albeit on a much larger scale. Mmm, no worries about marginal Dew Points, there!! Regards, Tom Q.