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TomSE12

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TomSE12 last won the day on November 28 2018

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About TomSE12

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    TomSE12

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    Male
  • Location
    Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Interests
    Meteorology, Sport in general
  • Weather Preferences
    Snowy, wintry weather

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  1. Hi Mizzle, No, I wouldn't call that a Channel Low actually. It's a much more messy evolution with a whole complex of lows tracking ESE, across the U.K. Much prefer the UKMO over both the ECM and GFS, version of events come the early to mid part of next week. The UKMO is a much "cleaner" evolution. Regards, Tom.
  2. Re. my post above, 00z ECM looking very similar to UKMO, for Tues, Weds next week. See charts below: 00z ECM TUES 29th JAN (t120) 00z ECM WEDS 30th JAN (t144) It's certainly been a very good start to the day. Model wise!! Regards, Tom.
  3. Morning all, Really liking those 00z UKMO charts at t120 and t144. UKMO TUES.29th JAN. (t120) UKMO WEDS. 30th JAN, (t144) Notice the wave developing on the front, just SW of Iceland. Then that gets dragged, "whiplash" style S.E, across the U.K. The above charts are very reminiscent of how the very cold spell in December 1981, started. See charts below: DEC.7th 1981. Notice a very similar, runner (wave), just SW of Iceland that gets dragged SE across the U.K, in a very similar fashion, to the above UKMO chart, for Wednesday next week. See chart below: DEC.8th 1981 The chart above depicts the situation at Noon on 8th December 1981.To this day, it remains the best rain to snow event, I've witnessed. I was living in Camberwell, S.E.London at the time, with my first Wife. Heavy rain turned to heavy snow around breakfast time and despite ground conditions being very wet, the snow settled readily. By the time the snow stopped it had left a couple of inches on the ground, not bad for an Inner London Borough. This event brought rush-hour chaos, throughout our region. Below are the two photos I posted up the other day from the Surrey County Weather Book, with Ian Currie's kind permission. They depict the scene in Dorking Town Centre, on the morning of 8th December 1981. I'm really hoping the UKMO have called next weeks Synoptics correctly. Looks as if it could be a pretty similar rain > snow event, come Wednesday, next week with all the fun n' games, that entails!! The encouraging thing is, Mr.Currie rates the UKMO Model the best around, at that range. Here's hoping!! Regards, Tom.
  4. Another "Channel Low" type event occurred on Boxing Day, 1927. See Archive chart below: There are fascinating accounts of this event in Ian Curries, Kent and Surrey Weather Books. I'll now post up a few photos from those books, of that event. These are reproduced with the very kind permission of Ian Currie: This photo below, is taken from the front cover of Ian's, Surrey Weather Book. It depicts a bus caught in a snowdrift, on the Farnham Road, just outside of Guildford. This was taken just after Boxing Day, 1927. The photos below are from Ian Currie's, Kent Weather Book and are reproduced with his very kind permission. The photo below, is of the "Queens Head" Pub in Downe, near Biggin Hill, virtually buried in snow. This across the road from Charles Darwin's house. Again, taken after the Boxing Day blizzard of 1927. The photo below, shows the London to Rye bus, caught in a snowdrift at Dunton Green, just North of Sevenoaks, after the Boxing Day blizzard of 1927. Some parts of our region were engulfed in mild air from the low that caused the Boxing Day blizzard, 1927. The photo below, is of a scene from Maidstone, which suffered from severe flooding: The photo below, shows a patient being stretchered to safety after severe flooding affected Canterbury, during that Boxing Day storm, 1927. Regards, Tom.
  5. Thanks for those very kind words, neighbour. I would've invited you to that Ian Currie talk at our over-60's Group, at St.Mildred's Church. It was on a Friday morning in November but I remember reading, that you worked. You didn't have to be a Church goer, I had the option of inviting guests. Perhaps another time, they really are worth seeing. Today Ian has kindly agreed to perform a talk where my Wife Colette works, in a Residential Care Home, in Elmstead Lane, Chislehurst. Regards, Tom.
  6. Now as I stated above, my favourite "Channel Low" event but in fact a contradiction to what I've posted above. I shall refer to it as a "reverse Channel Low". The Synoptics during Christmas week 1978, featured Atlantic Lows taking an evermore Southerly track, allied to height rises just south of Greenland, the scene was set for an impressive snowstorm for the Midlands and South. See chart below for New Years Eve, 1978. Bitterly cold weather had encroached into the North of the UK over Christmas but our turn was to come and "boy", did it come!! I was working for a Bookmaker's in East Dulwich, S.E.London. I left for work feeling very excited as the Raio 4 Forecast suggested a rain to snow event, in the evening. I can vividly remember watching the last race at Market Rasen (Lincs), that day. I noticed snow falling during that last race, no doubt snow showers blown in from the North Sea on that ever strengthening East wind, ahead of the main event. Actually, as opposed to that Radio 4 Forecast, it was an all snow event. To this day, it still remains the most severe spell of snow I've witnessed, when taking into account, the strength of the East wind. The snow was very fine and powdery and falling at temperatures, well below freezing. I'd been out after work for a drink with a couple of colleagues. When I finally returned home at around midnight, Bromley resembled, "The Retreat From Moscow". I couldn't see the pathway to my front door, due to the amount of drifting!! The following day was bright, sunny but bitterly cold and still very windy. Great billows of snow were blown off rooves and cars and snow ploughs had to make a couple of sweeps down our main road, to keep it clear!! I'd never seen a snow plough in action on Bromley's roads, before. Regards, Tom.
  7. Ahh Channel Lows, thanks Canadian Coops and Mizzle for spurring me on to write this, apologies it may get a bit, "War and Peace, as usual!!" As I stated above, Meteorology has been my hobby since I was ten and I'm now sixty-three. Back in the 1960's, I'm sure there were a few examples of what I became to understand, what the term "Channel Low", meant. IMO, it meant a low approaching the UK from the SW and running up the English Channel, trying to displace, entrenched cold air. But as our Winters have become milder on the whole, to experience entrenched cold air over the U.K these days, to paraphrase Steve Murr, is as, "rare as hen's teeth"!! sorry, Steve. I'm now going to post up charts depicting events which IMO, are fine examples of snow inducing, "Channel Lows": DEC 22nd 1981 DEC 24th 1981 December 1981 featured some very unusual Synoptics. This bitterly cold month, with a CET of 0.3c, did have a few milder interludes, basically confined to the South. If you flick through the Archive charts, they don't appear, that inspiring. But believe me there was some very cold and wintry weather, even in the South. Mild air associated with Atlantic Lows pecked away at the periphery of the entrenched, bitter air but only made small inroads, mainly confined to the South. Due to snowfall associated with the above two charts, Christmas 1981 felt very festive. Although technically NOT a White Christmas,as no snow fell on the day itself, snow lay about four inches deep, at my home in Bromley, N.W.Kent/S.E.London border. So, that's my understanding of the term, "Channel Low". A low moving up from roughly the S.W and trying to dislodge, entrenched cold air, which normally results in an initial period of heavy snow. Sometimes the mild air wins out, turning the snow to rain but other times I've seen Lows retreat South over France, with their "tails between their legs". It seems the vogue on the Model thread to often use the term, "Channel Low", when any area of Low Pressure wanders into that body of water, to our South, from whatever direction!! As in, "Is that a Channel Low, I spy at t168?? Yes it's a low and it's in the English Channel but it's not a "Channel Low, as we know it, Jim". I'll now post up my favourite Channel Low event but it came about in an entirely different way to Dec.1981. On the 31st December 1978, a Channel Low was the catalyst for introducing bitter cold air from the North and wasn't trying to displace it. Regards, Tom.
  8. Oh dear, I see our friend Nathan, is at it again. Having Spoken to local Meteorologist Ian Currie, who certainly envisages a colder than average February, that is crazily. OTT!! Another Frost Fair on the Thames beckons and sightings of Polar Bears, wandering down Bromley High Street!! Nathan, really does rack 'em up, doesn't he?? Just about to put together a post about Channel Lows, IMO a much misused term, along with Polar Low. Quote Mizzle: "Thanks @TomSE12 and I am looking forward to your post about Channel Lows. I have heard them mentioned but haven't as yet been able to find much info. (I am genuinely almost as excited waiting for this as I am for the snow. I love your posts. )". Many thanks to Mizzle, for her very kind words, above. I'm certainly not as technically gifted as some members on here but I am old. Meteorology has been my hobby since I was ten and I'm now sixty-three. I'd like a £1 for every Synoptic Chart, I've looked at, I'd be on the way to becoming a rich man. Ian Currie himself is sixty-eight and uses his vast experience, to formulate his Forecasts. Ian has taken recordings from his Weather Stations, for tens of years. He had two Weather Stations when he lived in Coulsdon, Surrey. One in his back garden and one on his allotment, at Chipstead Valley ( a well-known local "frost hollow"). So, I hope members understand why I got so angry a few weeks ago, when Ian was referred to as, "just another bloke off the TV!! Regards, Tom.
  9. Just had another long chat with local Meteorologist, Ian Currie. Ian thinks our chances of seeing some snowfall over the next couple of weeks, have increased. He's still of the opinion that the threat of snow, is still likely to come from the North, rather than the East, for the time being. His thoughts for February in general, havn't changed. He thinks it will be quite a bit colder, than what we've seen so far this Winter. He didn't have any snowfall at his Weather Station yesterday, in Storrington, West Sussex. It's very sheltered there and a bit of a frost hollow. He's recorded some sharp frosts over the last few nights .Not sure which order these were recorded in but he's seen Minima of -4c, -6c and -8c. Mr.Currie did experience some snow yesterday, on his way back from a talk, at a Care Home, in Epsom. He's also kindly agreed to perform a talk at the Residential Care Home in Chislehurst, where my Wife works. A little later, I want to return to a subject that Canadian Coops mentioned the other day, snow making Channel Lows. I'll also post up another couple of photos with Ian Currie's kind permission, from his Kent and Surrey Weather Books. Regards, Tom.
  10. Hi jodaw84, Well done, the good 'ole East Kent Streamer!! Eythorne located in the old Kent coalfield. No doubt, you weren't around in Feb1983 but your area was buried in snow!! Take a look at this chart: Regards, Tom.
  11. Sssh Leanne, don't mention the "jinx"!! Kind Regards, Tom.
  12. When I went into work with my Wife a few days ago (Residential Care Home, in Chislehurst), I was talking to the young lady that organises activities for the Residents. This includes having "guest speakers" in, to talk on a variety of subjects. I mentioned Ian Currie to her and she seemed very interested to have Ian come over, to present one of his talks. A lot of the Residents are in their 80's/90's and some are affected by Alzheimers/Dementia. I understand their main memory problems are connected with short-term memory loss. Indeed, on the whole, their long-term memories seem to be pretty sharp still. So, I'm going to suggest that Ian performs his talk about the great October 1987 storm, which is based on his book, Surrey in the "Hurricane". With that in mind, I will need to ring him this afternoon and will ask him about his current thoughts, for the next couple of weeks. Regards, Tom.
  13. Morning Lottie and all, Glad to see that slight N/NNE "Streamer" set up over E.Kent, as was suggested last night. MeteoGroup are of the opinion that these Wintry Showers (should be of snow with your elevation), will continue for a few hours before fading away, during the afternoon. Just seen the lovely, Laura Tobin on ITV, and her graphics also showed the extreme East of Kent will see some more Wintry-type showers, for a few more hours yet. Nothing I have seen from the overnight runs and having seen a recording of Weather For The Week Ahead (with Ben Rich) has changed my thoughts about the evolving Synoptic pattern, as we move into February. Saturday/Sunday, sees Ian Currie's second last "bite of the cherry", so to speak. UKMO (01.00) SUN.27th JAN. (t96) ECM (01.00) SUN.27th JAN. (t96) Just suggestions on the ECM chart below that East Kent could see a cheeky little "backdoor" Streamer, overnight Sunday into Monday. If this Synoptic came to fruition, no doubt the higher parts of this area could well see a little settling snow. Certainly one to keep an eye on. But the ridge again gets "toppled. ECM (01.00) MON.28th JAN. (t120) We then move on to Ian Currie's last "bite of the cherry". The Models seem to be suggesting that this could well be the definitive Arctic outbreak. The UKMO chart for Tuesday 29th Jan, looks to be gearing itself up for a more substantial Northerly. UKMO (01.00) TUES 29th JAN. Obviously, way off in la, la land but the 00z GFS run, already "playing about" with height rises over Scandinavia, as we enter February. See chart below: But that's way off in the distance!! Let's deal with the next week of weather first. Some of us may well experience some late January snowfall, if we're lucky!! Regards, Tom.
  14. Just before I retire to bed, just want to post up the Dutch Radar and their Forecast for Sneeuw chances, in the East of our region: https://www.buienradar.nl/ Very best of luck to all. Night, night. Regards, Tom. Ps. Sorry you need to click on SNEEUW, which is depicted in yellow.
  15. Just want to make a quick comment on the 12z runs. Still looking like local Meteorologist Ian Currie isn't going to be far off the mark, if the Models are to be believed. His "few bites at the cherry" comment, seem to be ringing true. All the Models I've looked at, seem to suggest the next "bite of the cherry" Northerly, will come between Saturday and Sunday. The ICON view of the synoptic set-up come Saturday evening, is pretty typical of all the Model runs, I've seen this evening but the ridge soon topples and so we move on to the next "bite" and hopefully the one which will benefit all. 12z ICON (22.00). SAT.26th JAN. As I stated this morning, each subsequent Arctic attack seems to be backing the pattern westward each time, and hopefully will allow, a more definitive Arctic attack. 12z GFS (01-00). FRI.1st FEB. The GFS chart above showing a more substantial Northerly and as Mr.Currie suggested a couple of weeks ago, perhaps veering N.E., after a day or so. The ECM (t240) is fairly similar to the above chart but perhaps a day slower to show the evolution of an Arctic sourced Northerly. Interestingly but obviously, way out in la, la land, the evolution of this pattern goes on to facilitate a Scandinavian High to form further on into February, just as Ian Currie suggested that kind of scenario may happen. See GFS chart below: 12z GFS (01.00) 7th FEB. I should imagine that a lot of members from around the region are hoping that Ian Currie has called this kind of Synoptic evolution, correctly. Regards, Tom.
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