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  • Location
    North Hampshire/Surrey
  • Interests
    History, Food, Weather, Dogs, Writing & Gin.
  • Weather Preferences
    Cold, Snow, Fog, Frost, Storms and Rain if it rains like it means it.

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  1. So grateful to have you here at this time! I am a newbie who has waited up every night for the past week on these 0z runs. (And to my chagrin overslept yesterday and missed our 10min snowfall). Watching this one roll out I am soooo excited but not confident enough to know I wasn't merely imagining it!!! Looks fabulous to my beginners eyes Edit: Is this as good as it looks?
  2. I'm no expert either, however, it seems to me that the 'reliable timeframe' varies according to what you are looking to 'forecast'. I watched a Met Office video a few days ago ( link was posted on here I think) where they explained that stratospheric forecasting is more 'predictable' than tropospheric. In addition, I think I am right in saying that even weather types have variable levels of predictability, i.e. snow is notoriously hard to predict at local levels even within 24hrs. In my limited experience of reading these forums, it seems to me that if the models are all in agreement within range of 3-5 days then the trend is probably correct. *she says.* *hopefully*
  3. Me too. Keep trying to work out what is meant but still not too sure - would someone be able to help me with a brief explanation of a 'slider'?
  4. I am a relative newcomer and this forum has taught me a lot. However, I have also learned that the vagaries of the weather forecasting can be likened to baking a fruit cake: we know the ingredients, understand the chemical interrelationships and have a broad grasp of the physics and motion dynamics. Through deep understanding of all elements involved it should theoretically be possible to calculate the exact locations of all the raisins in the end result. And yet oddly, it seems simultaneously impossible to do so.
  5. Where have all the clever people gone?? Hurry back from your NYE celebrations...you can't leave me in charge of interpreting the model output!!
  6. I see a dodgy looking HM looking NE & Queen Victoria looking W.
  7. What in the charts indicates whether or not there will be precip/snow or any other weather type? As a newbie I get confused as to what causes differences of opinion on these type of charts, especially as I just see it as pressure/temp. (Sorry if I am asking a really dumb Q ).
  8. My hunt for the cold is over - it's ruddy freezing out there! I am supposed to be off out watching the Geminids tonight and current temp reads 2.6C, (apparent temps 0.3C). North Hants. It feels positively Arctic.
  9. But maybe, like me, your snow shield will move with you!
  10. Hi Steve, Another lurker/learner here enjoying your posts. I like some shorter term focus as it still seems to me that surprises are possible: if nothing else, I have learnt that the weather remains a tad unpredictable Thanks to ALL who share their knowledge here, much appreciated.
  11. What is the difference on uk weather impacts between a split and a displacement?