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BruenSryan

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Everything posted by BruenSryan

  1. With the constant wet weather, it didn't feel that sunny here in April 2012. The 80s consisted of some very good Aprils like 1982, 84 and 87 but 83, 86 and 89 were all unsettled and very cold. 81 produced the blizzards in England at the latter part of the month. The highest I saw in April 2012 all month was 13c, no higher than that. 2018 I have not beaten that so far but I will next week. The simple reason is the colder than average seas surrounding us courtesy of the beast from the east dumping all that cold air here. It doesn't take that much to warm them up because they are shallow seas but the thing is, we need to get that warmer air first for a start...... Yes Kevin, Spring 1996 was terrible. March was very dull and in Ireland exceptionally wet. April was pretty average whilst May was awfully cold.
  2. Breaking news! I found a rare phenomena, I think it’s called the sun!
  3. April 2012 was as awful as this, felt like endless April showers and downpours with daytime maxima struggling at 8-11c mostly.
  4. The year started off very sunny here with both the sunniest January in 3 years and one of the sunniest Februaries I've experienced. February was absolutely beautiful. It was cold. It was dry. It was snowy. It was sunny. The ideal Winter month if you ask me. Of course, we've more than paid back for that with a very dull March and now what is so far a very dull April. This was coming after a very sunny November and a relatively sunny December but October was very dull. I don't know how to answer the original question of this thread because my outlooks for May were very uncertain and still are with multiple methodologies offsetting one another in creating a defined pattern whilst for the Summer, it's more clear cut for a poor season though there are always exceptions of course with any long range forecasting. I'd be surprised to see a May as good as 2016 or 2017 for a third consecutive year.
  5. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/library/publications/daily-weather-summary
  6. BruenSryan

    28 Feb 2018

    © Sryan Bruen

  7. BruenSryan

    28 Feb 2018

    © Sryan Bruen

  8. Don't think I've seen a Spring in my life so far with as many completely dull days as 2018.
  9. The outlooks for Summer 2018 are certainly not pretty. I've done many sorts of reanalysis charts for the season and barely any of them are pointing towards a good Summer. I even resorted to some ridiculous ones. I have looked at the following and these are the setups provided of all the Summers averaged into one reanalysis (which means you'll get Summers that differ obviously): Summers following cold Marches - High pressure just to the northwest ridging over us allowing the jet stream on a northerly track and creating warm easterlies with a trough to the southeast of Europe. A nice reanalysis to start us off with here. Summers ending in "8" - I think this is one that the majority are aware of by this stage but if you don't know already, there has not been a "good" Summer ending in the number "8" since 1868. Of course, you could make exceptions such as 1968 which was arguably good in the north and west though rather cool. Just even look at the recent examples of these Summers: 2008 - very wet especially August which was one of the dullest on record too. A fairly warm July and close to average June but both months were very wet too. 1998 - very wet and dull June. Very dull July. Decent August mind you with fairly mild and sunny conditions. 1988 - mainly settled and dry in June but very cold, wet and even stormy July with a rather indifferent poor August. The reanalysis perfectly captures the poor nature of these Summers as it shows very stubborn blocking over Greenland and the Arctic with a deep trough over us and the jet stream on a southerly track. Summers following sunny Winters - Very similar to Summers ending in "8" with a trough over us and stubborn blocking up to the north. Perhaps the jet stream not on as much a southerly track though. Summers with low solar activity following sunny Winters - Deep trough over us and blocking over Greenland/Arctic. I think you get the picture....... Summers following wet Marches - low pressure everywhere, even Greenland and the Arctic! Summers following wet Aprils - Blocking up to the north with a trough over us and a southerly tracking jet stream. Are you seeing a theme here? Summers following two years of La Nina which is then followed again by another La Nina event - Blocking up to the north with a trough down to the Bay of Biscay. However, the block is close enough to the British Isles for the jet stream to be on a northerly track and give us hot easterlies. The trough would allow for some thundery incursions. You can see that I was very desperate to finding a good reanalysis for Summer 2018 that I'd resort myself to a ridiculous far out there one like this. Summers following years where January was the warmest month out of the first three of the year (using the CET) - Low pressure to the southwest and over the UK with blocking up to the north........ mmmmmmmmmm Summers following cold Easters (using the CET). The 1981-2010 CET average for Easter (Good Friday to Easter Monday) is 8.07c so any Easter period below this average was considered for this reanalysis - Low pressure over the Arctic. Low pressure over the majority of Europe including us with a mid-Atlantic block. Awful chart! Summers following sunny Februaries - Very southerly tracking jet stream with blocking up to the north and a trough over us. Summers following dull Marches - High pressure just out to the west ridging in across Ireland with low pressure over Greenland and Europe. The flow is from a northerly source. Cold reanalysis but not all that wet. Summers following years with both a wet March and wet April in the same year - Deep low over Greenland which would usually indicate a positive NAO and in turn good for warmth. Trough in the Mediterranean which again usually good for warmth for us. But there are low heights over us with a mid-Atlantic block. These low heights are very weak allowing the jet on a bit of a northerly track. This is not far off a very good setup! So there you have it. Those are all the ones I have done up to this point and it does not paint a good picture for the Summer! Hopefully Summer 2018 breaks the cycle of poor Summers ending in "8".
  10. I'm thinking of doing a Summer variation of my Winter methodology tables in my first post. The question though is, what methodology would I include on this? I know NAO, CET and UKMT are definite for sure.
  11. May 2017 had plenty of settled, sunny and warm days here in Ireland, fantastic month! May 2016 was also very nice. A third May that is great just like those I don't see happening especially with the methodology like QBO, ENSO etc historically. If it means a great Summer (provided this year ends in "8" and we know how bad those Summers are since 1868), then I'm all for it.
  12. I'll make sure not to post here then with them 'cause long range forecasting and weather history are what I focus on. I like the experimental nature of long range forecasting, makes it very fun and enjoyable to me.
  13. Table of warm or hot Summer months (anomalies are based on 1981-2010 averages). I wanted to do this table to see if there's any slight correlation with the QBO and Summer months. To no surprise, there isn't. However, it's a fun table to look at nonetheless.
  14. No because I wanted to use more stations. I calculated back to the early 00s using the yesterday's weather page stations then people wanted me to include more stations as well as the Northern Ireland figure from the UK Met Office. As a result of this feedback, I went and included stations using Met Éireann's historical data - also the historical data on the NASA site for Irish stations, and the Northern Ireland figure from the UK Met Office. This can be controversial though because stations change from year to year and the further back I go in calculating, the less stations I have to use in the calculations of the figures. I'm quite aware on the history of the IMT. Deep Easterly and I have spoken about this before in the Irish Weather Statistics thread on Boards.ie. We compare figures from time to time and these comparisons help to make me note where I've made a huge error in data calculations. Deviations between our figures tend to be within 0.5c but when they differ for like 0.6 or higher, especially over more than a degree, either the month had some large differences in temperature or I made some mistakes in the calculations. I do this to compare historical months and have a CET equivalent. I do not like how Ireland doesn't have an official index to show how warm or cool a month/season/year was in the island - which makes it hard to compare historical events in terms of temperature.
  15. This table is of weak La Nina Winters that were preceded by weak La Nina Winters like 2017/18 (2016/17 was a very slight (arguable and skeptical) weak La Nina). I made this to see if there was any interesting historical links with this unusual combination of ENSO, for Winter 2017/18. Values are CETs using the 1981-2010 averages.
  16. This table is of Winters following Summers ending in "8". Values are again CETs and based on the 1981-2010 averages.
  17. Next table I'm sharing is of Winters that followed cool Autumns. The Autumn and Winter monthly mean temperatures are CET values and anomalies are using the 1981-2010 averages.
  18. Since you guys seem to enjoy my Winter methodology tables, I thought I'd share other tables of mine too. Here's my table containing previous SSW events since 1962-63 excluding February 2018's two SSW events. The other exception being the April 1982 SSW event which I discounted because it was not worth including as a result of it not having much of an effect on us and the fact that I would have to include four separate columns just for that one event. I decided to not include the May mean temperatures either because there are very few March SSW events and well, they don't seem to have much impact on the month like May is a very easterly month regardless of SSW taking place. The AO and NAO columns are averages for three monthly periods following SSW events. For example, if a SSW occurred in February, the AO/NAO index is averaged for that February, March and April's values into one figure. Or another example, if a SSW occurred in November, the AO/NAO index is averaged for that November, December and January - I had one exception where I included February in this equation (marked with a * on the table); Winter 1968-69. I included February 1969 because it had a very negative AO and NAO index just like the two preceding Winter months, it was also a very cold month. Some seasons, two SSW events occur and where they have done so, I've given two AO/NAO figures on the table.The IMT** and CET columns are of the mean temperatures for those respective months in the self explanatory regions. Irish Mean Temperature is the mean used for Ireland (figures here calculated by me), including Northern Ireland. The CET is for the Central England region and is the oldest dataset in the entire world. The main important mean temperatures in this case of course are those following SSW events. I'd like to put a disclaimer on the February 1985 figure though. As of a recent post looking at charts from this month, I am skeptical of this figure especially seeing how different it is to the CET value which is much colder. I need to recalculate this when I can because it does seem a bit odd given the synoptics and the CET value. **The IMT (Irish Mean Temperature) is calculated by me. It is basically the CET of Ireland. However, I incorporate Northern Ireland's figure from the UKMO within the calculations of the IMT with Republic of Ireland stations' data from Met Éireann's yesterday's weather page and or historical data. I have calculated the IMT for every month back to January 1960 though some months like May 2017 and February 1985 are open up for recalculations/corrections at some point due to them being odd in comparison to synoptics and the CET values.To no surprise, the results are very mixed. Every SSW event is unique, particularly the ones that took place here in 2018 and the 1985 event. I don't have time to go through every one of them sorry but hopefully my table is easy enough to follow so you can analyse yourself with these disclaimers and information.
  19. Nah nah, I only asked that because you seemed very familiar. Yes, only the meteorological Winter months. That is unless you would like me to do something else for them and I’ll recalculate.
  20. Hi Roger, firstly, are you M.T. Cranium of Boards.ie may I ask? Secondly, AVG SSN is the average sunspot number of that Winter season. The figure is a tri-monthly average for the Winter calculated by monthly sunspot numbers data on SILSO: http://www.sidc.be/silso/datafiles The colour scheme of the AVG SSN column was helped by some other weather enthusiasts. I was unsure of what figure to be considered average solar activity so I can say whether it's weak or strong. We ended up deciding on a sunspot number of 75, although that's always open up to differing opinions and corrections. If you or others have any ideas on improving the tables - or any methodology to add to it, don't be afraid to tell me here.
  21. Hi, I'm a new poster on Netweather but I've posted on other weather forums before like Boards.ie or UKWeatherworld. On the latter, I was quite unpopular due to me being extremely unprofessional at the time - that was three years ago now however and I'll admit I was very unprofessional, I did not know much bar the very basics. I've learned a lot since then though still very much on a learning curve, especially in regards to things like solar activity and the MJO. This Winter was my first season I've been interacting with the weather community on Twitter and what an epic first season it was with so much bizarre events going on from the beast to the east to Storm Emma to the Wales earthquake to me having snow from a westerly to the December 10th slider low. To tell you who I am, I am Seán Bruen, an amateur weather enthusiast whom has a huge obsession in weather history, ENSO, solar activity and the stratosphere. I have been interested in the weather since I was 8 or 9 and my interest in it rose particularly during the Winter of 2009-10 with unusually cold and snowy conditions I had not seen in my life up to that point. I grew my big love for snow and cold Winters after that and was amazed by early Winter 2010/11. I am from Dublin, Ireland. Somebody on Twitter said I should share my tables I made specially for long range forecasting Winter and so I registered here to share them. I did not know where to post them so I made this new thread. I apologise if the thread is clogging up the forum and I did not mean any harm. These tables show the NAO, AO, average sunspot number, OPI (ignore that laugh out loud), NAO in May before the Winter, UK mean temperature + anomaly from 1981-2010 average, CET + anomaly from 1981-2010 average, months of SSW occurrence, QBO, ENSO + its strength and the PDO. If there is a blank, it means the data is unavailable. The OPI for 2015 to 2017 are estimates by myself but after what happened in 2014-15, I think you all want to ignore it. These tables are far from completed and always open to edits, they're just used as a guide to help me in long range forecasting the Winter season so I can make easy reanalysis charts or analogues. If you'd like any sources of the data I got the information in my table from, let me know and I'll post them. Thanks for reading.
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