BruenSryan

Definitely not worse than 2020 here in Dublin on the other side of the sea. June 2023 was way above anything in summer 2020. June 2023: 226.7 hrs June 2020: 130.0 hrs (6th cloudiest since 1942 and cloudiest since 1993) July 2020: 104.2 hrs (3rd cloudiest and cloudiest since 1986) August 2020: 97.1 hrs (cloudiest on record, beating 2008) That alone makes summer 2023 significantly better than 2020 despite July 2023 technically being worse than 2020 though it wasn't as cloudy and August 2023 will be forgettable but not terrible.

Fixed it for you.

Kevin, Mr Data, Weather-History.. whichever name you call him formula he uses for his Manchester summer index.

Getting back on track to this thread... I had a look at the UK data and used the Manchester summer index formula to calculate statistically the best and worst spring/summer combos on record. This is the data I found, can go back as far as 1910. The formula: 10 x [(mean max of summer) +(total sunshine)/67 - (rain days/8)] I used the current August scaled up estimate from Roostweather for sunshine in 2023 and for rain days, I used the 1991-2020 average so 2023 will have a fair margin of error. The best spring/summer combo years: 1995 262 2022 258 1976 257 2003 248 1955 247 1984 245 2018 243 1911 243 1989 242 1949 241 1990 240 The worst: 1912 148 1920 149 1985 151 1924 153 1931 153 1979 156 1916 157 1927 159 1963 159 1954 161 The worst this century is 2012 with 176. 2023 is much higher at 208. Not that bad. In fact, that's almost bang on the 1991-2020 average of 209. Would be the lowest since 2016. Recency bias and heightened expectations after such a good 2022? Note this is the national UK average and does not account for regional variation.

Last day here with 10 hours or more of sunshine was 22nd June I don't recall going this long in summer without one before. Even 2020, which I begrudgingly despise, managed one in July and August.

1959. July was wet because of intense thunderstorms with some of the highest rainfall rates on record in the UK, it did not have a high number of wet days. In fact, it included a 2 week rainless spell for the SE. May-October 1959 all warmer and sunnier than average, September and October exceptionally so. May, August and September very or extremely dry. Places had a drought from mid-August to mid-October with no rain in the east. About the most wonderful extended summer in terms of persistence of fine weather but without the extreme highs though it still got to 34.4C in July at Cromer.

If isolating out the mean max (so no skewing from nights) using the current August estimate, then it drops to the 15th warmest since 1884 with higher mean maxima in 1976, 1995, 2018, 2022, 2006, 1899, 2003, 1933, 1911, 1947, 1983, 1975, 1887 and 2013. Just more evidence how much June has skewed things. In statistical terms, a "hot" June will make more difference than a hot July given how low the baseline is for June and it often brings the seasonal mean down. This is why summer 1976 is still by far the warmest for the Central England region with no June coming close to 1976 since then up until 2023 though of course 2023 will fall flat because of a mediocre July temperature wise and August will be slightly milder than average by the looks, both very different to their 1976 counterparts.

ChatGPT would be correct, in terms of mean max. 1976 had cooler nights than some of the others bringing the mean down.

I myself will look back on this summer as a poor one despite what the stats say and I'm usually an advocate for stats over people's recollections. If we take the estimated value above from the screenshot, which is a scaled up total to month's end using current average millimetres per day, summer 2023 would be on the wet side but not exceptional (around 116%). Since 2010... 2012, 2017, 2019 and 2020 will have been wetter. This will change however unlike the temperature which I don't see changing much unless a sudden cold spell (yes cold, not just cool) comes out of nowhere bringing freezing cold nights for the time of year.

Hypothetically, if August finished with the estimated UK mean of 15.4C, it would be the 8th warmest summer on UK record since 1884. Look forward to people's reactions to that at the end of this month. Goes to show just how much the ridiculous June skewed things. Only the following summers would have been warmer since 1884: 2018 15.76C 2006 15.75C 2003 15.74C 2022 15.71C 1976 15.70C 1995 15.62C 1933 15.38C 2023 15.37C It will be so strange to have 2023 amongst those summers because all those were absolute classics. Can't say the same for this atrocity (minus June).

It was westerly in the lower stratosphere (50hPa) but slowly transitioned to easterly reaching 30hPa by February. It was a transitioning winter rather than a particular phase of dominance unless you go lower down. Forecasts through various points in June. Started off with an anticyclonic signal to the east which would be a very warm/hot month. It began to raise heights over Greenland coming to the end of June and our anticyclone disappearing. It eventually caught onto the low pressure in July itself. IE CFSv2 didn't forecast July well, at all.

The summer only keeps getting better. August wetter than average after an overnight deluge from storm Antoni with 51mm of rain, 5 days in not even. Dublin Airport is having its wettest summer since 2012. Following on from the 2nd wettest July since 1939.

If you get blocking high pressure over Greenland, it tends to correspond to a trough undercutting beneath with the jet stream on a southerly track bringing relatively cool Atlantic air and low pressure systems to the UK and Ireland. Summer wavelengths mean the jet stream doesn't go as far south as it can in winter typically. In wintertime, provided the blocking high isn't all the way towards the Canadian side of Greenland (west based negative NAO), this can bring along severe cold weather with winds from the northeast and last a prolonged period of time.

Donna Nook, Lincolnshire MSLP bottomed out at 982 hPa according to WeatherOnline. The last time I've been able to find a depression as deep as that over England in the first half of August was all the way back on 5th August 1985. Other deep depressions have been either over Ireland/Scotland or in the second half.

I did not but there was always the warning from nature in my opinion that if the westerlies were to take hold, the North Atlantic sea temperatures would enhance atmospheric river type setups giving a lot of rainfall. I suspected that happening more from thunderstorms though which apart from the brief plume-type setup on the first weekend clearly did not happen in July. I consider July 2023 a spectacular flop on winter fail proportions from seasonal forecasts and long range models, especially the EC46 which did not catch on until the first week of July that the month was not going to be warm and dry.

Finally at the end of this atrocity of a July. Only July 2009 has been wetter in the 84 year Dublin Airport record than 2023 for July. It's also been the 6th cloudiest since but not as cloudy as July 2020. Wettest month since November 2019 and wettest summer month since August 2014. Erase it from existence.

Can you answer the same question I gave to you about your data please? QBO reconstruction is from: Just a moment... AGUPUBS.ONLINELIBRARY.WILEY.COM Unfortunately I don't have a source for the ENSO table, somebody just shared it with me back on Gavs comment box in the day which you were also on and I haven't felt the need to question it.

No, it's not moot. They've published this every year at this time since 2014. I guess you didn't bring up this nonsense those other years plus it interests nerds like me.

ENSO was neutral on the slightly positive side through the winter but barely negligible. QBO reconstruction showed a downwelling easterly QBO through 1946 and 1947.

It does amaze me how many forget July 2020 whilst it is my personal least favourite summer month although July 2023 is making a strong contender! Had only 104 hrs of sun in July 2020 followed by 97 hours in August 2020.. however the July total is arguably worse because it has higher potential with more daylight whilst both are atrocious. This July is on 93.6 hrs right now.

Another scorching day in this stunning July. Yay

All datasets are in the link below including the mean max and mean min. 2014-current provisional can be found here, again including mean max and mean min. Met Office Hadley Centre Central England Temperature Data Download WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

Except the CET max, which is a mean max temp, exists.

I couldn't care less that this July hasn't been all that cool statistically, it's been extremely wet and cloudy. That is atrocious.

Currently wetter here than any month since November 2019 which was my wettest month since August 2014 and could be Dublin's wettest July on record but I suppose it's been grand yeah. I do love getting soaked every day with still less than 100 hours of sunshine as of 24th July to enjoy.