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BruenSryan

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Everything posted by BruenSryan

  1. Even 2009 just after quickly glancing at the data. I forgot some of these years myself. You can find the maxima in the climate summaries available: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries
  2. There was also 2004 and 2005. 2004 June - 31.5c at Cambridge on the 8th July - 30.1c in Central London on the 29th August - 31.5c at Northolt and Central London on the 7th/8th 2005 June - 33.1c in Central London on the 19th July - 31.7c at Gravesend on the 14th August - 32.2c in Central London on the 31st 2006 was almost one but August was 0.3c short at 29.7c.
  3. 2015 June - 32.5c at Heathrow on the 30th July - 36.7c at Heathrow on the 1st August - 30.9c at Kew Gardens and Gravesend on the 22nd
  4. And..... GFS OP goes from exceptionally wet and even stormy next Friday on the 12z to absolutely nothing on the 18z.
  5. I think people slate it for being appalling for two reasons: 1. July being exceptionally wet 2. The UK Met Office infamously forecasting a "BBQ Summer" I loved Summer 2009 personally. Summer 2010 was my favourite out of the 2007-2012 period. It was a good June and a good August (well very sunny and dry but not really warm) whilst July was poor but it wasn't nearly as bad here as much of Ireland had been. If I'd choose the worst Summer out of the period since 2007, 2012 without a doubt here. At least September 2009 became very anticyclonic.
  6. Latest UKMO Glosea5 model doesn't agree with that, in fact a continuation of warm easterlies for August to October with its July 2018 update.
  7. This is the sea surface temperature anomaly map for July 1995 that I'm referring to @Mike Poole. As for Chris, let's have some perspective. Let's look at two examples of very deep lows/storms in recent times coming towards the UK and Ireland; ex-hurricane Cristobal on 31 August 2014 and "Irene" (as apparently named by the media) on 16 April 2018. Both lows promoted ridging over us. The first one, Cristobal, gave away to one of the driest Septembers on record in our countries with barely any rainfall for a lot of places for much of the month following a very wet end to Summer 2014. Meanwhile, Irene gave away to an exceptional warm spell for the time of year and later, a very dry May along with a very dry June with lots and lots of high pressure being the dominant influence. Same could happen with Chris this time in prolonging the settled weather again with it helping to ascend more high pressure from the south (which will be bad news for some, especially here in the east of Ireland where I live). The Azores High is still very strong and ridgey. Add the fact that the GFS was "toying" onto this idea too yesterday well in FI on some runs. I would not be surprised whatsoever if this was to actually happen given how the Summer has turned out so far and with reasons above given light. You could also consider Hector of mid-June.
  8. What I mean is that the North Atlantic has a cold blob of sea surface temperature anomalies in 2018 compared to 1995 so any time we go into a northwesterly or westerly, it will be much cooler than any attempt of such during 1995 with perhaps quite dramatic cool downs if the winds do go those directions. Not to mention, this cold blob is also more conducive of forming deep depressions than if it wasn't there. If the deep depressions don't occur the rest of this Summer, it's a high chance that Autumn will be stormy as a result of this SST profile in the North Atlantic unless something drastic happens. I've seen this breakdown scenario appearing numerous times this Summer already, just look at the week that has gone by now. Thunderstorms were meant to come up from Biscay on Sunday 1st July and then we gradually go into a cooler more Atlantic influenced phase. Yeah, that worked out . I also remember the models (specifically the GFS most of all) hinting at a deluge for Friday 15th June 7 days or so before. We're at a similar timeframe to all these pickups on "breakdowns" that we've seen this season. Tropical Depression 3 and Beryl are really causing a ruckus in the model output. This is just getting silly at this stage.
  9. Somebody brought this up with me, look how Summer 1995 "ended" in mid-July 1995. However, the north Atlantic is much colder in 2018 compared to 1995. That mid-July 1995 low was heavy thundery showers. The models here for FI are suggesting damp conditions more than anything. Am I splitting hairs?
  10. What? There's two runs I take less serious and they're the 06z and 18z based on their verification. Also, the chart given is at +384 hrs so even if it was the 0z or 12z, I wouldn't take it serious at all. Just look at it for long range trends or fun. P.S. Don't quote pics please.
  11. Rip see you again Summer soon maybe next year :(. But seriously, GFS 18z.... Pub Run.... enough said. It's like that GFS 12z run from the day before.
  12. Toasty GFS 18z , not as hot as ECM 12z but hardly cool by any means.
  13. NAVGEM strikes again. 36c in Ireland, 20c in Morocco. Sure
  14. Yep about time it was smashed. It has happened multiple times to the UK since 1900 (1911, 1990, 2003), so why not Ireland's turn now.
  15. Yes (I love your posts by the way) but what the analogues (I've been making hell of a lot of analogues also) don't take into account is the constant stationary wave over Scandinavia since February. I think August will be poor but the models like Glosea5 (CFSv2 differs), SST profiles etc don't suggest this. I couldn't imagine four consecutive very warm and dry months including all three Summer months. I do not see a 1976 repeat BUT the SST profile in the Atlantic in May 2018 was very similar to that of May 1976 though the Pacific differs in 1976 to 2018. It will most certainly not be a record warm June. June 1846 will still stand as the warmest June on record for the CET. Just stating facts. I'm looking forward to it and I'll be making the most of it. Anyway...... back on topic to model output. GEM - scorcherio GFS - scorcherio UKMO - scorcherio Is ECM going to be scorcherio or disasterio?
  16. May 1976 was warm in the south but relatively cool in the north. Fairly changeable month but sunny in the south. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/n/s/may1976.pdf Whilst I'm a lover of sun and warmth, it's safe to say that it is a terrible outlook for hayfever sufferers, those with other medical problems related to heat, can't stand heat etc. Skin cancer is also likely to increase with the high UV levels and everybody going out.
  17. It's like the Beast from the East all over again. Why are you looking out that far? Jeez. We have enough uncertainty out to Friday 29th or Saturday 30th June. Never mind the second week of July! Enjoy it whilst we have it.
  18. The GFS ensembles are also showing the indexes (NAO and AO) going into negative territory through the first week of July indicating the Greenland blocking that the 12z forms. Oh boy.
  19. To add weight to not taking the CFSv2 that serious. Look at the temperature anomalies the model was showing for July 2013 this time 5 years ago. I don't usually post here but just thought I'd say that. Think this afternoon and this evening's model runs are great with the south and southeast being favoured in both Ireland and the UK for earlier in the week then the west is best for the end of the week (if tonight's runs are correct) as in sun and warmth though everywhere will be average to cool. The agreement of the models this evening has been a while coming.
  20. Well there was the 2004-2006 and 2010-12 droughts though Summer being the exception of course in the latter. Unsure if people regarded 2016-17 as a drought but it sure was very dry.
  21. Not exactly. If you look at the 1st April Easter Sundays and the Summers that followed them (last occurrence of such being 1956 - terrible Summer), you'll find again a similar suit to what all those showed with a southerly tracking jet stream and northern blocking. It was mentioned on Twitter that the constant high pressure to the east since February maybe a good sign for the Summer because it combined with a weaker zonal flow means it's unlikely to change.
  22. That would be very good. Some heat, some thunderstorms. You can't go wrong. 2001 was not that bad. 2001 is one of the years that crops up the most in the analogues I've mentioned above along with 1876, 1934, 1947, 1963, 1975, 1996, 2008 and 2013.
  23. I can, 2012-13. Exceptionally wet, multiple months colder than average and dull too. January and March 2013 were yuck, never again please. Worst time of my life from personal experience to the weather to everything. I've not been finding 2017-18 too bad besides October, March and April rubbish here whilst August and September mediocre. November and February were beautifully sunny.
  24. No, it was a southeasterly. The first two weeks were dominated by easterlies leaving the south and east rather dull most of the time but very sunny and sometimes warm elsewhere especially up to the north.
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