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BruenSryan
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Posts posted by BruenSryan
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April 2024 a bit different to the other warm Aprils this century so far.. (though 2014 was somewhat different too)
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"I don't remember much of late 2017 but I'm not really sure that March and April were even regarded as wet."
Really
you don't think 176% and 145% of average rainfall is wet hem?
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UK maxima for every day of the Easter period this century. Unsurprisingly... 2003, 2011, 2019 and 2020 on top with 2013, 2008 and 2018 at the bottom.
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damianslaw Well... here's the top 10 wettest springs on UK record and the summers that followed in % of rainfall and temperature anomaly to avg (against 91-20). These are for the UK as a whole.
1979 85%, -1.1C below avg
1947 68%, +0.7C above avg (9th warmest)
1986 93%, -1.4C below avg
1913 55% (5th driest), -1.2C below avg
1920 99%, -1.8C below avg (10th coldest)
1967 84%, -0.7C below avg
1983 50% (4th driest), +0.7C above avg (12th warmest)
1981 71%, -0.9C below avg
2006 74%, +1.2C above avg (2nd warmest)
1994 79%, -0.2C below avg
I think you are able to tell the best summers from the years alone though regardless of the data. I don't see much in it to be honest and all the cooler than average summers are from a significantly different time.
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What can I say that I haven't already said elsewhere about this beauty of a month.
August 2022 heatwave was by far the most comfortable I've ever felt in a heatwave here as it had low humidity, relatively cool nights and the sun wasn't as strong because it was later in the summer.
Ireland not only had its first August 30C since 2003, well overdue, but it also broke the national record for the month.
Not to mention had an amazing very late noctilucent clouds display on 11th August in the midst of the heatwave.
The final few days also had a lovely spell though was a bit cooler and definitely noticed it here on the east coast of Ireland with that easterly wind before the 2nd September 2022 came which brought us into this current exceptional wet era. Take me back to this
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Adding onto what Metwatch has said...
Of course don't get fooled by what we have classified as "pre-frontal sunsets" where high cloud is approaching but it's coming from the west where the sun sets. These are usually no-gos as the western horizon is completely blocked ahead of rain coming from the Atlantic. On rare occasions, they can provide some brief colour before the sun hits a wall of cloud on the horizon or the front is coming from a different direction rather than the west like the south. 20th March 2020 had one of the best spectacular sunsets I've ever seen and a front was lingering to the south - see pic below.
A hazy sunset will normally have muted colours after the sun has set because contrary to belief, haze mutes colours. Although golden hour can still be spectacular with hazy skies I have found. You also have the chance of seeing a hazy sun where you can look directly at the sun without blinding yourself and it goes red or pink. The most hazy wind direction is southeasterlies and you will tend to build up haze too in an anticyclonic setup with not much mixing.
The most important thing is a clear horizon because even if you have what doesn't look like favourable cloud for rayleigh scattering to kick in, it can light up red briefly if the sun peeks through a clear horizon.
After you have observed a lot of sunsets, all of this stuff becomes second nature and you pick up quirks or trends that tend to happen which cannot be found online.
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North-Easterly Blast Think he meant 2017 (as the Feb and Mar figures in his post match that year) but accidentally put down 2018 and July 2018 as the highest summer month CET which 2017 was July 16.9C.
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I've said to death about how much of an atrocity 2020 was for here in the east of Ireland and people don't give it enough flak. Spring is a completely separate season so has no bearing on my opinion of that summer.
I'll do a hot take and say 2022, see what I did there. It was a better than average summer here for sure with the most wonderful August in many many years. However, June and July were too westerly and fed in a lot of cloud to call it a legendary summer. I've seen some people here say it's better than 2018, definitely not. June 2018 was one of the best summer months of all-time in Dublin and July was fantastic too, at least for a good part of it whilst August was mediocre but not completely terrible. After all, the summer index showed it was the 15th best summer here since 1942 so there were at least 14 summers better - that is at least on a statistical means.
Not saying 2022 was a bad summer, not at all.. but it was a bit over-praised in this location, especially July.
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Summer8906 The wettest July-June periods on record:
UK: July 2006-June 2007 1344.4mm (records since 1836)
England & Wales: July 2000-June 2001 1258.3mm (records since 1776)
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Summer8906 I misread that July 2019 was bang on 1991-2020 (100%) so yeah that period does not count. January 2020 was dry though with 88% of average, the daily totals below.
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Weather-history And another close run from March-October 2008 but June was 91% of avg and October 98% - both relative to 91-20. I don't think anybody would call those "dry" months anyway.
May 2012 was slightly below 91-20 avg with 92% whilst April and June-December were all above to well above avg.
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February1978 The last time E&W had 8 or more consecutive wetter than avg months (against 1991-2020) was back in 1960-61 from July to February.
Recent periods that got close:
June-December 2019 (7)
June-December 2012 (7)
August 2006-February 2007 (7)
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If allowing some leeway for periods of mild, dry and sunny weather rather than months, December 2001 could be included. It was a cold month overall due to northerly winds later and a lot of frost. However, the second week had some very sunny and mild weather locally. Mainly in foehn affected areas. In the south it was rather cool, especially inland where there must have been some inversions going on.
NASA satellite imagery for the 11th December 2001 for instance and the max temperature was as much as 16.1C at Nantmor in west Wales on this day. Must have felt a bit strange for the time of year.
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Metwatch There was also 18th March 1990 with 14.2C.
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2022 by far. One of my favourite months. So many fine sunny days to get out and enjoy life. Says a lot that March 2022 was sunnier than any summer month here since June 2018 at the time - August 2022 and June 2023 have been sunnier since.
Smashed any previous March sun record and I doubt I'll see anything like it again. Outside of Jersey, I believe Dublin was the sunniest place in the British Isles that month too - a rarity.
2022 203.1 hrs
2003 172.2 hrs
1955 171.7 hrs
1982 169.4 hrs
2011 162.9 hrs
Before that, 2011 was my favourite March and it holds up with the sun stats. I was too young to know about 2003 but would have loved that too. 2012 had a stupendous final week and was the best period of March weather out of any but the rest of it was a bit "meh" here and second week was very cloudy.
This pic in the park on the 1st day sums up how the month would go on. I've never done as many steps in a month as March 2022. A lot of fantastic walks in the seemingly endless sunshine.
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Yesterday was provisionally the mildest February day on record for the Central England Temperature with a daily mean of 13.7C beating 4th February 2004 which had 12.8C. Also the mildest of any meteorological winter daily CET on record.
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Metwatch Also related to this is how the last week of April seems to lack warmth and the well-known April quirk where April's record warmth has tended to be biased towards mid-month. I myself cannot recall much in the way of April warmth in my lifetime coinciding with the final week - the closest being 2011 where 27.8C was achieved on the 23rd but that's just before.
Get a good southerly and April 30C is easily achieved in my view. I wouldn't even totally rule out a 31C provided all variables are in order and timing to the end of the month.
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dryfie The McGivern tweet was before the 19.9C figure came in.
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Also worth mentioning that the July record was beaten 3 times in succession this century before 2022.
2006 36.5C
2015 36.7C
2019 38.7C
And if 2019 didn't happen, 31st July 2020 would have also been a record with 37.8C.
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Derecho Yes, there was a paper out there that showed central Pacific based La Ninas tend to be particularly front-loaded towards November and December in some cases but not often whilst east Pacific ones have a stronger blocking signature for later in the winter.
Reanalysis of analogs confirm this. Note though that while CP Ninas tend to be biased to November in terms of -NAO, there's a significant positive z500 anomaly for February extending back to Scandinavia along with a Genoa trough which may or may not result in a continental feed.
I must mention these analogs were based on ONI rather than MEI.
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70 years ago now.
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If it helps for your use case scenario, here's the mildest January-March periods on record specifically for central southern England and SE England region rather than the UK mean which may have lots of variation.
2016 here had 5.5C (Jan 5.6C, Feb 5.2C, Mar 5.8C).
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As with the worst season of the 2000s thread, I am only going by stats here for the most part in Dublin and my current preferences imagining myself experiencing them as if they were today.
2000 - Summer. No other season to pick from really. Boring winter, forgettable spring overall (very poor April but sunniest May on record until 2020) and autumn was atrocious. A fine August with some thunderstorms, June had some notable warmth and July was mediocre but could have been much worse like eastern England.
2001 - Winter. Most interesting of the lot with a snowy spell late February into first few days of March and a frosty January. December would have been lovely later that year too being the sunniest on record and a seasonal Christmas. Spring was poor minus May which was great. Summer not terrible but forgettable. Autumn was boring.
2002 - Spring. The best of a bad bunch with a fine March, mixed April with some very wet weather later and a very wet May here. As per other posts, all seasons poor. December a contrast on the previous year from the sunniest on record to the cloudiest on record (until 2018).
2003 - Spring. A bit out of left field pick but March was cracking - the sunniest on record until 2022 smashed it - with lots and lots of sunshine, mild days. April was also fantastic with warmth and sunshine. May was poor but seen worse. Meanwhile the summer had a mixed June/July with a lot of unsettled weather before it really got going with a stunning sunny, warm and dry August. Spring had more bang for its buck than summer here though I'd take either really.
2004 - Spring. No season particularly great but March ok and May fine with a mediocre April inbetween. Summer far too unsettled. A lovely September but very wet October and dry, cloudy November.
2005 - Summer. A lot of cloudy periods this summer but often on the warm and mixed side. July ended terribly with over 48 hours of persistent heavy rain on the 28th/29th and June started off poorly. Other than that, a summer with lots of useful weather than anything else. Second week of July very warm and sunny.
2006 - Summer. Easy easy win for summer this year. August was poor but June and July were absolute classics. July was my favourite summer month until June 2018 and I have very hazy (I was only 5) memories of it from living in the family mobile by the seaside through the month. Haven't seen a July as sunny since.
2007 - Spring. All months good. March mostly fine if a bit changeable at times. Cracker of an April being exceptionally sunny, exceptionally dry and exceptionally warm all in the same month. Even May was a lovely month here and didn't get the deterioration that England had.
2008 - Spring. Good variety of everything. Deep low pressure systems through March (record low on the 10th) with several cold zonality episodes giving temporary snow, a mild start and end to April with a pronounced cool period inbetween including frequent April showers (something that has been lacking in many years it seems) and a warm, sunny May. Had my last significant April snow on the 6th.
2009 - Winter. At last a seasonal winter after the many many mild ones. Not snowy though did have some snow in early February with regular colder periods and December 2009 the coldest since 1981 with Wicklow Mountains buried into January 2010.
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Here's the mildest January-March periods for the UK mean since records began in 1884.
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Moans, ramps and banter
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by BruenSryan
If one is going to be picky and cherrypick specific dates rather than a general period...
Reading had a maximum of 7.5C on 22nd April 1973. Heathrow had 8.8C that same day.
Kew had a max of 7.3C on 22nd April 1922 and 22nd April 1888.
Today is not exceptional at all.