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    Dublin, Ireland
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    Weather forecasting, weather history, music, gaming, education.
  • Weather Preferences
    Cold, snowy Winters and warm, sunny Summers

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  1. That's Met Set's so-called "stratospheric index" which divides into 8, nothing to do with MJO. See the below tweet from the same people: Here's how the 2012-13 major warming evolved at 10hPa to compare with the 2018-19 one since the Glosea5 is picking up on it being similar to that of 2012-13.
  2. BruenSryan

    Winter 2018/19

    1971? Snowy? Eh.....
  3. I would have thought 2017-18 as snowy in my own ranking, average before the BFTE and Son of the Beast. There was very frequent snow showers for a good part of the northern regions in both the UK and Ireland. I'd especially rank it as snowy if 2015-16 is "average" which it most certainly wasn't.
  4. BruenSryan

    Winter 2018/19

    The coldest Winters list is based on the Central England Temperature (CET) series and Winter 1955-56 had a CET of 2.9c so does not fit in the top 10 which that list was based on. Would appear if I made the list a bit longer. As others said, early February 1956 brought a severely cold easterly in. It's kinda incredible how the transition happened from zonal to easterly.
  5. BruenSryan

    Winter 2018/19

    I'd rate solar activity higher than ENSO or QBO for correlation given my research although even solar activity has its odd ones out. All elements have to be considered rather than taking one completely as a basis. One thing I know that definitely points towards a mild Winter is the Atlantic SST anomalies, they are just not conducive to negative NAO going by the UKMO methodology.
  6. BruenSryan

    Winter 2018/19

    Years generated or chosen from Cohen's Eurasian snow cover anomalies graph for October 1967-2018 (using data from Rutger's Snow Lab). 2018 was only relatively above average going by this graph and I picked the closest years I can see to 2018 for the analogue. You may pick some slightly different years than what I chose there which is fine as we all have our own different interpretations. The years were 2010-11 (westerly QBO), 2004-05 (weak El Nino), 2003-04 (transitioning to westerly QBO), 2000-01, 1999-00 (westerly QBO), 1996-97 (transitioning to westerly QBO), 1982-83 (westerly QBO), 1978-79 (slowly transitioning to easterly QBO - doesn't get there until the mid Spring of 1979), 1973-74.
  7. BruenSryan

    Winter 2018/19

    This is what Winters with similar October Eurasian snow cover (using Cohen's index) to 2018 look like reanalysed.... contrary to what Chris says.
  8. BruenSryan

    Winter 2018/19

    For the CET, it was the coldest 28th February (at -3.6c) since 1785 (-3.8c). It was the joint coldest 1st March (-3.5c) on record since 1785 (-3.5c). A new UK record low maximum for Spring/March was recorded. Severe blizzard was recorded here in Ireland with depths not seen at least since January 1982 and maybe even longer for some like 1947, 1933 or 1917. Sounds pretty exceptional to me.... do feel you're down playing the Beast from the East 2018 period a bit unnecessarily.
  9. Well nature can amaze us sometimes 'cause look what happened following that chart @Ed Stone showed from November 1978, this was the end of the month. I can't imagine the forum surviving a month like December 1978 with the amount of toys being thrown out of the pram. Patience is a virtue people. About November 1946 which I mentioned the other day too in an evaluation post on why it's far too early to be getting disappointed, according to this reconstruction of the QBO, 1946-47 was a westerly QBO Winter yet it was also solar maximum. Make of that what you will. Reconstructing_the_Quasi-Biennial_oscillation_back.pdf Another example from history: Early November 1962 (note the blocking to the east of Europe and a displaced Azores High) November 1919, incredible blocking. December 1919, no blocking to be seen and ended up a mild, wet and cloudy Winter following a very cold November. Was a complete write off from a cold perspective, similar to the 1998 example @Weather-history gave above, except 1919 had a November with cold extremes. GFS 06z is not bad, I've seen far worse (millions actually). ECM 0z was not great short term but the displaced Azores High should be noted, like in 1962 ^.
  10. Come on man, it's early November, what do ya expect like seriously? It's not what happens now that matters, it's the prospects of what could happen in a few weeks from now. Wouldn't mind a proper cold, wintry January for a change! Just had a look at the GFS 0z myself, reminds me of November 2009 again. Not your usual zonal pattern, fronts struggling to push west to east.
  11. I suspect the UK and Ireland (moreso Ireland than the UK) would be very unlucky at times with such a 500mb height anomaly if it were to verify. Why do I say this? The trough is just a bit too far west to really lock into severe and prolonged cold easterly flows. Most of us would be in a no man's land scenario with mild air battling against an easterly flow trying to occur. Think Scotland would get away well though. If the trough were centred or extended further eastwards into Europe, hell yeah, locked into the freezer! Anyway, not worth delving into further than that as it's only one single CFS run which changes every few hours and every day so reliability is out the window.
  12. Far too early is an understatement. Only need history to prove it. 4 November 1946..... the warmest November day on record before 2015 in the UK and Ireland. Prestatyn recorded a max. of 21.7c. Even Edinburgh got up to 20.6c on the same day. Not much sign of Winter? Yeah. Now look at exactly 3 months later..... 4 February 1947. Sometimes you can see teasers for the Winter in November but it can change dramatically. November has no effect on how the Winter will pan out. For instance, the year that broke the 1946 November record high; 2015. This was followed by a totally different Winter to 1946-47. 1946-47 was one of the coldest (and snowiest) on record of all-time whilst 2015-16 was the second warmest on record back to 1659 behind 1868-69. Or late 2010 First 4 days of November 2010: Final week of November 2010: Don't cast a clout 'til May is out.
  13. BruenSryan

    Winter 2018/19

    At least 2007-08 was passable and somewhat interesting instead of complete rubbish like say 1987/88. 2007-08 had as you say freezing fog and some ice days during the mid month dry spell in December 2007, there was a brief easterly at the start of January which delivered some heavy snowfalls particularly over Northern Ireland; not sure about other regions of the UK, February was the sunniest on record (which I'll take very sunny conditions any day if I don't get the snow) and had some severe frost, March and April both had several instances of snowfalls. Found April 2008's snowfalls quite remarkable here and they were the last April snowfalls I have had since.
  14. BruenSryan

    Winter 2018/19

    Even in a warmer planet, we have still succeeded with the coldest December since 1890 (or coldest December/coldest month on record) and the coldest March since 1883/1962.