Supacell

I can't.... silly of me to think I could

Ok. I am going to get my head down for an hour and then to "wherever the radar takes me" in about 2 hours.

Indeed it is. The Bournemouth cell has developed a nice core now too.

I think that Bournemouth cell is heading due north and so is set to hit Derby if it survives.

Bournemouth storm is like the kind of thing we watch erupt over the Low Countries, truly remarkable strike rate!

If it is then it will take the exact track predicted by Euro4 - heading towards Lincolnshire but cutting a great swathe through CS England and the East Midlands first. Too far east for me but I would chase it.

It is going mental south of Bournemouth now and the storms SE of London and in NW England and N Wales not at all bad either. The massive gap in the middle should fill up in the next couple of hours (I hope).

I think real time lightning is as there are lots of strikes just on and off the south coast showing.

Storms ganging up and growing to the south of Dorset and heading north, these are currently the ones I am most interested in as they would hit Derby if they survived the 200 mile journey.

Something a little more potent just north of Hereford.

East Midlands Airport TAF says 40% of +TSGR this evening - that's thunderstorm with hail

Feels cool here with a fresh NE breeze. It is hard to believe there are big storms forecast for tonight. I am still feeling hopeful despite the fact it does not feel warm or humid, there are just too many parameters in place (on the charts) for me to feel downbeat. The fact there are already sferics to the west makes me feel confident too.

Lincoln may be a good bet for you if things get going to the south

I would agree with Grantham as being a good place should the "potential" supercell that has been modeled happens as per the models (and now the BBC graphics). It is easy to get west or east from there using the A52 and north or south using the A1 or A15. Added benefits of chasing at night are that there is much less traffic and you can also use lightning as a guide if storms are already ongoing. I had no internet on Weds night so just took myself to the risk area and then followed the lightning to get into the storm. Bear in mind storms will be moving quickly so you want to be ahead of the storm, not behind it.

Has anybody seen the latest BBC forecast with Nick Miller - it looks rather tasty around Lincolnshire. New BBC graphics in line with Euro4.

My current plan is to stay put as I look to be well placed for the main band moving from the southwest later. However, because anything that breaks out further east will likely have a higher chance of being severe I am all set to drive east using the A52 from Derby should this happen. I am aware of the potential for something to develop around Hampshire and move NE towards Lincolnshire.... this would have to cross the A52 to make this track. That is my plan for now, could be different by 6pm

Whilst filming this storm over Ljubljana, Slovenia I was too distracted by the lightning bolts and thunder crashes that I did not notice it's rotation. This is sped up but check out this rotation!!

Me too. I took last week and this week. What a great week to be off

I video them and use 720p and 60fps. The reason I don't use 1080p is because my laptop cannot handle editing footage at that resolution. 60fps is better than 30fps for capturing lightning I would think. Another option would be to set it up to take 10 photos every second. I haven't tried this method so don't know how good it would be. I prefer video though, then you get to hear the rain and the thunder.

I use a GoPro camera and although it can get some great video of lightning I have found that if the bolt is too close or bright then on occasion you don't actually get to see the shape of the bolt but rather a very bright flash. Unfortunately you can't adjust shutter speed or exposure. I am hoping that tonight I get plenty of bites at the cherry for good lightning footage.

Absolutely. I would not be surprised to hear of large hail reports tomorrow morning again.

Tony Gilbert on UKWW saying cloud tops of up to 40,000ft and cooling to -63c!!! That is going to produce some serious lightning!!!

I do rate our area tonight to see something. My concern is whether it will be big intense thunderstorms or just an area of thundery rain. There is plenty of elevated instability, deep layer shear and most models this morning do show our area under some heavy precipitation. Watch this mornings forecast, a nice yellow blob across our region Of course taking the blobs literally is rather futile, but it is looking good.

Thanks mate. I am thinking I will stay put as would be more gutted if I spent petrol money and drove for hours to the SE to find nothing and Derby got hit than if I stayed at home and missed it further SE. Local Radio talking of torrential rain and large hailstones across here this evening so they don't seem to be going with the "thundery rain" idea, more severe thunderstorms. In other news, Carol has mentioned that dreaded H word although did say storms would be on a par with Wednesday night and having being there under some of them I can say they definitely were h.....

This morning the GFS is showing a widespread storm risk across everywhere during the night and tomorrow with the risk transferring from SW to NE. The best storms are in the SE of this portion - so SE of a line from Devon to Hull. The favoured areas would be SE and EA for a more severe storm. The UKMO and BBC are totally at odds with this as they forecast the heaviest and most potent rainfall to come into the SW and move more NNE across Wales, the Midlands and up into N England. Here you could probably draw a similar line - lets say IOW to Hull and say everywhere NW of this for the best chance and pretty much nothing over the GFS favoured areas of the SE and EA. The NMM favours the UKMO solution and brings the precipitation across the same areas as the BBC but the higher CAPE values are there in the SE and EA, not so much in the N and W. MLCIN is stronger in the SE though which would explain the precipitation forecast. The WRF model I am looking at agrees with the GFS solution as does the Estofex forecast - although the Estofex charts do always back the GFS. The whole country benefits from deep layer shear (DLS) in the region of 20-30knts and so any storms are likely to become organised. The south east also benefits from an abundance of helicity and so storms here would have the potential to turn supercellular. So, what we have here is a failure to communicate! However, my take on it is that I see a risk of thunderstorms generally across the north and west, including the Midlands, with a risk of CG lightning (at least at first) and large rainfall totals leading to localised flooding. The lack of any CIN and a lot of DLS in the western portion would indicate that thunderstorms could become very widespread and eventually merge into an area of less exciting thundery rain, dumping a lot of water but producing only a small amount of lightning. If the GFS solution is correct and storms can develop close to the SE and EA then these would remain as more isolated cells but have the potential to become supercells with more in the way of severe weather such as large hail, frequent lightning and even a tornado. As a storm chaser, I now have the decision of staying put to enjoy what I get here as the risk of seeing something is high or gambling for a lower risk of something more spectacular by heading SE.