Supacell

I'm feeling the urge to drive down the A1 towards that MK cell as it moves north. But my experience has taught me it will probably fizzle out just as I get there whilst a supercell erupts in my original target area of York.

Currently two storms stand out. One over the North Pennines and one moving directly over Milton Keynes. I've now moved a little further north and just outside Doncaster with a few spots of rain coming from high cloud, and feeling muggy.

Currently just off the M1 near to Sheffield with the plan to head north in the direction of Wetherby/York.

I'll be heading north today. Likely to position myself near the A1 somewhere east of Leeds which offers a quick route northwards. A lot of disparity between models again but I'm going to follow the Arome which pretty much nailed yesterday's storms. This would therefore favour North Yorkshire from somewhere like Selby up to York.

I know Sheffield is a big place but how did you manage to avoid the storm on 8th July? I drove through Sheffield under a storm for the whole time, and it was quite a big system. Edit: I see you've answered this as I was typing. You are correct, it didn't get much further north than Sheffield.

I will be out and about chasing over the next couple of days. I've just forked out on a new vehicle though, so large hail isn't very welcome . My thoughts are that I will stay local today. Its a low risk but high reward scenario, but that convergence zone looks to occur not far from here. Tomorrow is now looking more like a trip northwards but still a lot of chopping and changing in the models. Hoping to end the season with a bang and make 2023 a season a bit like a sandwich. Started well, ended well but with a 2 month chunk of cr@p in the middle.

Locking this thread now. Apologies to @Eagle Eye you got in early . Please feel free to copy your forecast into the new thread if you wish. New thread here

September already, that happened quickly! Where did summer go? Well, looks like it's on its way back this weekend and beyond. So here we go, a new thread for September, first month of Autumn, but still a month where thunderstorms can and do occur. Having said that the first few days of the month at least are offering up low chances of anything thundery with some much yearned summer like sunshine being the flavour of our weather. The exception is today which does look more unsettled and showery, more especially across southeastern parts. For me, and a lot of us, August was fairly quiet for storms. For those who want the storms, let's hope for an uptick in activity as we head through September. August thread here for those who want to look back. Keep posting and remember to keep on topic and to be nice and respectful to others.

There are some storms currently moving out of Le Havre into the Channel. Movement looks generally northwards. If they survive they look to hit around Eastbourne. Big "if" though.

Where I can understand the frustrations of this year's storm season for some, can we please stay on topic and not derail this thread into a thread about the performances of the Met Office. As for this evening, there is still a bit of uncertainty as to where any storms will occur or if any will occur at all. I was planning on chasing this evening despite the inevitable long drive. However I'm now not convinced the drive would be worth it. Edit: Eastward shift on AROME 12z. Risk area now looks to be Kent and then grazing the coasts of Essex and southern Suffolk.

If there was any model I would want to extend the risk westwards then it would be the Arome. In my opinion it handles convective weather better than the other models. If Arome says Peterborough as western extent I'd be inclined to agree.

Now if it was raining chocolate I'd definitely be out chasing!!

I think he says error bars as he's referring to the margin of area with predicting where any storms will be.

Met Office warnings for tomorrow night's possibilities will probably be released tomorrow morning. I'd imagine too much uncertainty at this stage to put out a warning.

Remember this one well, for the wrong reasons . It looked on all the models as though the further east one went the better the chances. I positioned myself east of London. The storms then erupted west of all the predictions and I had to back track some distance westwards to get them. Unfortunately they were moving so quickly northwards that I missed the best show. Moral is, the models are only a guidance. I'll be keeping my eyes on tomorrow night and hopefully won't make the same mistake again.

Considering the amount of off topic posts we get on this thread it seems a bit strange to be pulling @Eagle Eye up on his forecasts, which are amongst the most on-topic, useful and helpful posts on here. I get the theory that his forecasts may get buried in the masses of posts on busy days but this is just part and parcel of a busy forum. I personally scan through looking for the more informative posts on busy days, but admittedly miss some. As for forecasts being raised for low risk days... a low risk is still a risk.

Locking this thread now. Please continue discussions over here -------> https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99147-storms-and-convective-discussion-august-2023/#comment-4898355

Well, what a wet month we have just had. The weather may not be changing at all for the new month but our storm discussion thread is. And so what of the chances through August? Well, early signs are showing a return to summer but this is a long way off yet. From a storm enthusiasts point of view a return to warmer temperatures, and certainly winds from a more southerly point, are a positive sign as this is a weather pattern that can produce our best thunderstorms. This Atlantic low pressure chain that we are under can and does produce thunderstorms in the summer months though, this will be the case within the next 24-48 hours. Where today should stay storm free across most of the UK there is an unseasonably deep area of low pressure approaching from the west and this could bring thunderstorms across Ireland later on this evening before a band of thundery rain moves through England and Wales overnight. Tomorrow then looks like a day of heavy showers and thunderstorms, especially across Central and Southern parts of Wales and England. I will let the more experienced and knowledgeable forecasters look at the specifics but it does look like quite a turbulent day tomorrow for both thundery downpours and strong winds. Continue discussions in here. Old thread here: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99001-storms-and-convective-discussion-july-2023/

A thin line of heavy showers has broken out just to my south. BBC has me with a 71% chance of thundery showers at 6pm but I'd be shocked if it happened. Certainly looks like a downpour may be imminent though.

Video of the very fast moving hailstorm from early afternoon just outside Ashbourne/Hulland Ward. Overhead for not much more than 5 minutes.

I find the distribution of storms a strange thing. It seems like different places are favoured year by year. Last year i recall the south was favoured with places such as the Sussex coastlines getting numerous storms, and yet there was nothing around here until September. Infact the Midlands had very little. I know storm chasing was expensive last year as I had to travel a long way to get anything. Here in Belper, storms have been slim pickings since i moved here in February 2017 with nothing at all until the 24th July 2019 and then just 17th June 2020, 28th July 2021 and 9th September 2022. This year it's been the opposite way. The south has had very little but the Midlands and NW England has had lots. Here there's been more storms this year over Belper than the years 2017 to 2022 put together, although even now the stronger storms have stayed away. I dont recall a year with such a disparity in distribution though. Thankfully still plenty of time for more of the country to get storms as we are only half way through the storm season.

Haha yes. I'd need an F1 racing car and no other traffic to have a chance today.

Just had a brief but intense storm pass to the west of Hulland Ward with some pea sized hail.

I did, but at that time was living in West Yorkshire and so had a distance to travel to get to it and by the time I did I was behind chasing it from around Lincoln to Mablethorpe. The strongest part of the storm was to my south and always ahead of me and so even though I saw plenty of rain, flooding, pea sized hail and winds (very strong at times) I did not really get much lightning footage. There was almost constant flashing but it was very feint within the clouds. That storm is the benchmark for the UK, we've had nothing that severe since, but my position was much better for the 10-11th August storm. Infact, in terms of chase footage, the 28th June 2012 storm is below a lot of chases since for me.

And at the point that I looked away my camera caught this