Supacell
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Posts posted by Supacell
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Good morning and Happy Easter to all.
If we can say that the UK has a storm season then it likely runs from April 1st to September 30th, but the UK weather does not stick to any rules. This last week has seen thunderstorms with lightning displays, large hailstones and gusty winds along with some amazing mammatus displays. Thank you to all that shared your pictures. Let's hope this coming season offers up some of what we want to all of us.
So here we go, it's April 1st but I am not going to offer up any April fools jokes
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Today actually offers its own risk of some thundery weather, albeit a small one. Numerous heavy showers are likely to break out today across the southern half of the UK. These should develop readily once the sun gets out across Central and Southern England before expanding northwards through the Midlands and possibly as far north as Manchester. Amongst these could be the odd thundery one but will unlikely be organised with very little wind shear on offer.
Anyway, keep on chatting and remember to stay on topic and treat each other and the forum with respect. Heres to a good season of 2024.
Old thread here:
Storms and Convective discussion - November 2023 onwards
Chance of storms diminish tomorrow as the air turns much colder with a 50mph northeast wind bringing heavy snow from the east and up to 20-30cm expected across most of the UK.
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Daniel_c150311 The GFS charts i looked at showed some CAPE briefly around and to the south of the M4. That coincided with a zone of wind convergence. This was likely what caused them.
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Going to be looking this thread shortly and opening up a new one for April.
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Thankfully decided not to bother chasing today. Some pretty looking cloudscapes but not enough storm activity to warrant it for me. A nice early start to the season though for some.
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The storm risk may expand a bit further north tomorrow and so I'm contemplating getting out for my first chase of the year. If I see a storm it'll be the first time I've seen and chased a storm in March throughout my 20 years of storm chasing. Although the speed of them may suggest "chasing" would be impossible. It'll be a case of getting in the right place at the right time.
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It's March so not expecting MCS's and spectacular electrical displays but some prospects for thunderstorms/thundery showers over the next few days. Tomorrow looks to be western areas mainly. From Thursday onwards the risk probably more widespread.
I know we really don't need any more rain but still nice to see thundery weather in the forecast.
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marksp Same in Belper. You can have sleet and wet snow not settling in the centre of town but then a short drive (or even walk) away can have deep snow. I think that may be the scenario tomorrow.
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I may be in with a chance of some snow on Thursday looking at the many models and forecasts. All of them show snow over Derbyshire for a time on Thursday. As others have said, it's a pity it won't last though.
The Peak District and places such as Buxton look in for a dumping.
Forecast for Belper. Will probably show rain in a few hours though.
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Please can we keep the posts respectable to one another. Personal remarks and attacks are not acceptable on this forum.
This is a weather forum, we're all here for our interest in weather. This is not the local pub on a Saturday night.
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A tree blowing through someone's window at night is much less likely than being hit by debris whilst walking outside or driving to work. So the risk of impacts is higher in the day when more people are out and about than at night when most are inside their houses.
However, there is still a risk of impacts, hence the widespread wind warnings across the UK.
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A rough night ahead for many in what has been a rough season. To have 70mph wind gusts forecast for here is a rarity and for such a long period of time is even more rare. 90mph + winds are a rarity anywhere in the UK aside from on top of a mountain.
Storm Pia was around 60mph I think in these parts and that felled numerous trees, knocked roof tiles off houses, including in the centre of town, and caused a lot of disruption across the county. To think this could be 10mph more! Granted there are other things to take into account, for example the ground was sodden.
I read someone's post (I think on here) that pointed out that wind speed related to the likelihood of damage is logarithmic. The increase of force on a structure caused by a wind of 70mph as opposed to 60mph is greater than the increase of force caused by 60mph as opposed to 50mph and so on. I am not clever enough to work out exactly by how much but there is a calculation out there.
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Just an icing sugar dusting here in the end. Looks like the band has shifted north now so not expecting much more here, at least not today.
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It's reached Belper. Opened the curtains to a moderate fall of snow and it's not struggling to settle on the frozen ground (-1⁰c outside). Not expecting much around here but even this is more than I expected
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I may have to take a short walk on Wednesday/Thursday this week.
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May aswell take this opportunity to plug my YouTube channel dedicated to storm chasing. A lot of videos on here taken from my past 9 years of storm chasing. I will have been chasing for 20 years this year with my first video being taken in August 2004. A time where I had no internet on the move and relied on interference on an AM radio to detect lightning
. It's strange thinking back to those days and how much harder it was to chase storms.
https://youtube.com/@supacellstormchasing
I'm looking forward to April onwards. Hopefully will be getting lots more footage for my channel.
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Netweather storm forecast from Nick Finnis showing a similar thing.
Severe Convective Weather & Storms Forecast - Netweather.tv
WWW.NETWEATHER.TV-
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A sleet/rain mix for the last few hours and snow is slowly thawing. Can hear the dreaded drip drip sound. This is in the centre of town though, not sure what it's like in the higher parts of Belper.
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Bit of a dumping overnight. About 7-10cm and all the minor roads around the town are bad. Saw a number of stranded cars.
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Locking this thread now. Please continue discussions for November convective weather in here:
https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99492-storms-and-convective-discussion-november-2023/
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Where November is not traditionally a month associated with storms for inland areas of the UK, it can still be quite thundery around the coastlines. Much like has been the case for the second half of October, the first week of November shows up risks for scattered thunderstorms around southern and western coasts particularly. Infact, there is scope for some quite severe storms in the next 48 hours courtesy of Storm Ciarán (and before).
Look back on October here.
Keep on posting all thunderstorm and convective related musings for the final Autumn month in here.
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Been out and about checking out the flooding situation, both in the car and on foot. Apparently the river level in Derby City centre reached record high levels with 3 severe flood warnings issued.
I personally have not seen the river so high in Derby, and I was there for the 2000 and 2007 floods. Belper was affected also but luckily didn't affect the town centre.
Some pictures from around here
The recreation ground in Belper
The A6 just south of Belper
The River Derwent and the village of Duffield as seen from above on a small hill
The river in Derby City centre. There are about 4 or 5 steps down to the river behind the posts
People watching the river in Derby
I have some video to edit also.
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27 minutes ago, A Face like Thunder said:
I've seen reference to a thunderstorm in London lasting 12 hours starting 4pm tomorrow. Is this a possibility or is it someone trying to earn a few pennies?
Yes, someone trying to earn a few pennies. Sounds like a Daily Express style headline. Taking what is a risk of storms for over a 12 hour period and turning it into a 12 hour thunderstorm. A little bit like the risk of snow over Cairngorm translating to a headline of UK wide blizzards
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56 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:
The longest storm I've ever been in happened in October, was down to coastal orographic lift, lasted from about 2am in the morning till 12pm the next day.
The loudest thunder and most damaging cloud to ground definitely positive lightning strike happened in march. Storm season can be any time of the year.
Absolutely. I witnessed a squall line pass over Derby in January 2014. It went on to produce a tornado near to Retford. It's just that storms aren't as commonplace in the cooler months.
However, in simple terms storms are caused by cooler air above warm air. This can happen at anytime and arguably could lead to an increase in coastal storm activity in the Autumn, especially with a warmer SST.
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Locking this thread now. New thread here.
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Storms and Convective discussion - November 2023 onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Locking this now. New thread here:
Storms and Convective discussion - April 2024