Supacell

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Supacell last won the day on May 28 2016

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About Supacell

  • Rank
    Storm Chaser
  • Birthday 06/12/76

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Belper, Derbyshire
  • Interests
    Chasing storms (in my 12th year of chasing uk storms), weather and meteorology, keeping fit, walking, photography, going out :)
  • Weather Preferences
    Thunderstorms

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  1. It's still stifling here, so not sure the cold from has passed through yet. It's unlikely to produce anything though. They do have some great storms here. The 9th June 2014 supercell was an absolute beast and it came right over Holland, Belgium and NW Germany. I'd love to witness something like that.
  2. I am just NW of Dusseldorf, but with no car to go out and chase. I was hoping they would come here but nothing more than a couple of distant rumbles from a storm that developed just to my east and headed over Essen.
  3. ...and yet all those storms in Germany developed to my east. You couldn't make it up. Back in the UK tomorrow.
  4. Well I am in probably the most stormy country in Europe currently but I still cannot get a break. Germany is alight but NW Germany is bathed in 35c, clear skies and sunshine with not a storm even close
  5. Nice structure on the storm approaching Hamburg http://www.wetter.com/hd-live-webcams/deutschland/hamburg-hafencity-elbphilharmonie-unileverhaus/5153e17054358/
  6. Unfortunately I am about 500 miles too far west. It would be great to see something like that bearing down on me!
  7. Keep the storms brewing up over the UK and send them Germany's way. How strange to be in Germany and watching for imports from the UK rather than the other way around. I do hope the North Sea doesn't kill them.
  8. An interesting set up tomorrow for my current location just north of Dusseldorf in Germany, although worringly the GFS has it slightly east of here and I have no access to a car. This means I am reliant on something coming to me. Other models have NW Germany joining in the fun though. It is something for me to watch and keep my fingers crossed for at least. "#PossibleDangerousSituation ahead for tomorrow in NW to C Europe during the passage of an associated cold front, while simultaneously the warm airmass ascends north. Latest model runs are highly indicative of severe weather potential with a chance of supercell events. A very unstable environment is present accompanied by high values of CAPE, good overlap of shear with locally higher values of SRH and Theta-E. Definitely one to follow and an interesting nowcast situation to follow. Important for 2morrow will be to keep an eye on the sky" https://www.facebook.com/MeteoEU/?hc_ref=SEARCH ------------------------------------ Extended Forecast Valid: Thu 22 Jun 2017 06:00 to Fri 23 Jun 2017 06:00 UTC Issued: Wed 21 Jun 2017 06:02 Forecaster: TASZAREK This extended forecast was issued to highlight a risk for a possible severe weather outbreak over CNTRL Europe including tornadoes, very large hail, damaging wind gusts and excessive precipitation. An upgrade to level 3 is eventual, but is strongly dependant on the following model updates. SYNOPSIS Broad low is located over NW Russia, while a ridge with a highly unstable airmass cover W and SW Europe. A jet streak extends from British Isles, through Denmark, Poland up to Ukraine and borders these two large features. An increased airflow in the 850-500 hPa layer overlaps with an unstable airmass over Benelux, N Germany and NW Poland. Current NWP scenarios indicate a passage of the shallow trough with a low-level jet around 15-21 UTC over Benelux and Germany. DISCUSSION A very steep lapse rates (> 7 K/km) originating from NW Africa overlap with a rich boundary layer's moisture (~ 12-14 g/kg) that results from an intense evapotranspiration and moisture pooling taking place over W Europe since Monday. The aforementioned combination of lapse rate and low-level moisture will create on Thursday a healthy 2500-3500 J/kg ML CAPE stretching from France up to CNTRL Germany, with a local maxima exceeding even 4000 J/kg (France, SW Germany). Current NWP scenarios indicate that this whole area will be overlapped by an enhanced DLS values (> 15 m/s) indicating that developing convective cells will have a potential of organizing into multicell clusters and supercells. The best "kinematics" are expected over Benelux and N Germany, where a low-level jet will increase LLS to 10 m/s, MLS to 10-15 m/s and DLS to 0-6 km resulting in a high values of a CAPESHEAR composite. In the opposition the previous extended forecast, the position of the trough by GFS was considerably shifted to the west. It is also predicted to be more shallow than previously expected. These issues slightly drop severe weather potential, especially when it comes to CI. Although convergence boundaries will be still available, a weaker forcing will put more importance to the magnitude of the cap. Current mesoscale NWP scenarios indicate very late CI, around 18-21 UTC over N-CNTRL Germany, with storms moving in the late evening hours to Poland, therefore currently this area is considered to have the best potential for severe thunderstorms. However, it must be highlighted that most of the models are not very consistent in simulating the location and timing of CI, mostly due to different scenarios regarding position of the trough. If storms will fire-up over Germany in a such thermodynamic and kinematic environment, they will quickly become severe. According to mesoscale NWP scenarios, a likely discreet supercells may be capable of producing large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts. Vertical wind profile will be not very supportive for tornadoes (low helicity, straigth hodographs), but given enhanced low-level shear with high instability and isolated character of the supercells a tornado event cannot be ruled out. Later, when the storms will organize along the outflow, a QLCS with a damaging wind potential may form and enter Poland in the late evening hours. GFS predicts a healthy ~ 1000 J/kg ML CAPE overlapped by a strong stright-line hodograph flow in 850-500 hPa layer. A late evening derecho event cannot be ruled out, however it is less likely compared to previous NWP updates. The most important factor that should be monitored in the following model updates is the position and timing of the trough, small changes to its position may strongly influence severe weather potential and thus final forecast. Another limitation refers also to the magnitude of the cap which with not very strong forcing may inhibit CI. Recent surface observations over France indicate also that GFS seems to overestimate dew points by 1-2 degrees and thus instability may be not as high as predicted by GFS. www.estofex.org "An upgrade to level 3 is eventual"!!!
  9. Not on the ICON model for today, although it does show something for tomorrow around your area.
  10. I have been looking through the hi-res models for today across Europe and the one that seems to have the precipitation correct so far is the DWD ICON model. If this model is correct then the best chance looks to be the Pennines and east into Yorkshire this evening. Just one model though, and they are all showing different.
  11. It's just a bit OTT. Yes a risk of very large hail, damaging gusts and tornadoes is dangerous, but to say that a tornado not unlike those in the States is just being a bit silly in my opinion. He is definitely right to highlight the risk of severe storms, but not every storm that forms "will most certainly" become dangerous and severe.
  12. Agreed. It should read that any storm that manages to fire has the potential to become severe. Disappointing as I always used to take notice of Met Monkey's forecasts.
  13. Hmm, I think they have a good handle on the area most likely to be affected but the bit in bold is a bit over the top. That is not to say there will not be severe weather but we are not the Mid West of America.
  14. Haha, nice to see we all keeping a watch on weather updates from Convective Weather and the like
  15. It would be typical for Derbyshire to get a big storm today as I am not there to see it. To make matters worse the latest storm risk forecasts for where I am in Germany have removed any risk of storms for tomorrow, unless I am able to travel 300-400 miles east over Thursday night, which will not be possible as I have an early flight on Friday. I can just see it is all falling into place for me to take an emotional kicking over the next two days. So, for those living in the Midlands I will take payment by PayPal, bank transfer or cash once you get flattened by a supercell as a thank you for vacating the area and taking my shield with me In all seriousness though, it does look good for this afternoon/evening for the Midlands northwards with somewhere like Lincolnshire and along NE England with the best risk later. However, be careful of reading too much into the GFS CAPE charts. They are overdoing dew points and so showing up insane CAPE charts which are not realistic. I would say 1000-1500 j/kg of CAPE is more realistic which is still plenty to produce severe storms if the cap can break (much more likely than on previous days IMO).