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Supacell

Severe Weather Forum Host
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Supacell last won the day on June 1 2018

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About Supacell

  • Rank
    Storm Chaser

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Belper, Derbyshire
  • Interests
    Chasing storms (in my 15th year of chasing uk storms), weather and meteorology, walking, photography, going out :)
  • Weather Preferences
    Thunderstorms

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  1. Very rarely post in here but please remember that all the models will be highly volatile (even more so than normal) as they come to terms with the effects of the SSW. Yesterday we were looking at very snowy, brutally cold charts from the GFS, today we are looking at less cold but still cold, still quite snowy charts on GFS. ECM is milder, UKMO is colder - complete disagreement - and people are posting things like "winter over". What is to say we won't be back to brutal cold on later runs? Models simply cannot get a grip on exactly where weather systems will fall in 5 days/10 days time. The storm over the USA is now taking shape across the southern Midwest and this will play a part in just how cold we get in the UK. Using the 00z ensemble chart below for my location shows a wide spread of temperatures in a weeks time, but most are close to or below freezing at ground level until the end of the run. Hardly winters over.
  2. All 5 of those days offered up a great storm chase opportunity for me with the 27th July being the best of all as I was in Lincolnshire under the high risk from Convective Weather. Very little at home but plenty out and about on either side of the 8 week long summer dry spell. Another good day was May 31st but it was much more localised and so overall did not produce as much lightning as those in the top 5.
  3. Hello all, I am just wanting to introduce my new YouTube channel which I will use to showcase the best of my storm chase videos whilst out in the UK chasing storms during the spring/summer storm chasing season. Rather than start with an empty canvas I am going to put on here my videos from 2015 onwards, but only the best of my videos from my most successful chases. I am currently in the process of setting up the channel and so I still have one video to add from the 27th July this year, this is uploading as I type this. Some of the videos are quite long but I did not want to cut them down too far as I feel it would take away from the quality of the film. Hopefully I can continue to put together more videos over the spring/summer of 2019 if the weather plays ball and I get to go out and chase some more. If you like what you see then please subscribe, apparently I need over 100 subscribers to be able to get a proper YouTube address https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCiDuFh9TAFJhN8B1oCKGKsA?view_as=subscriber
  4. I have mentioned this in the convective thread but even at this stage there appears a lot of uncertainty. Certainly the risk is there though of something quite nasty tonight.
  5. Any death is obviously a terrible thing and is a reminder to just how dangerous weather like this can be. However can we keep this thread to talking about Storm Ali please and not let it degenerate into an argument/attacks over peoples opinions regardless of whether they are right or wrong. Incidentally the wind is howling even here, at around 200 miles south of Ali. I dread to think what it is like underneath the strongest winds.
  6. I will look in more detail when I get home from work but it looks like an intense feature could pass through parts of England and Wales on Thurs eve/night. Looking like the possibility of a vigorous squall line bringing a period of damaging wind gusts, torrential rain along with some thunder and lightning. Met Office have already issued a yellow warning for winds.
  7. Supacell

    Hurricane Florence

    Florence showing up nicely on the lightning/radar picture. If/when it hits Myrtle Beach then there is a good webcam here: https://www.earthcam.com/usa/southcarolina/myrtlebeach/?cam=myrtlebeach_hd It doesn't look too bad there at the minute, although I expect in the next 24 hours it could get quite wild.
  8. Brought a few loud rumbles to my work (not far from J26 of the M1) but the main storm has passed to my south towards more Nottingham way.
  9. Lightning being detected 15 miles to my SW and heading this way.
  10. No you are not missing anything. There is the risk today of quite widespread thundery showers across the country. Already the NW around Merseyside has seen some activity and heavy showers and a few storms will become more widespread through the day. CAPE is not huge but it is enough and there is some wind shear on offer but some uncertainty as to whether storms will attain enough height to utilise it. Even so, the risk of something a bit more organised but most will be pulse type storms. Best chance of organised convection probably across East Central and Southern England. Any storm brings with it the risk of gusty winds, hail and torrential rain. As ridging moves in from the west the showers and storms will be killed off so best chances will be diminishing by evening. A forecast has been issued by Convective Weather http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-08-10
  11. Absolutely. Unlike previous summers/autumns where the Atlantic steamrolls through and into N Europe leaving us under persistent westerlies.
  12. There is but unfortunately nobody seems to use it. For those thinking that the hot spell coming to a temporary end marks the 'waste' of all that hot, humid build up of air then fear not. SST's are higher than normal and the prolonged dry, hot spell means that the ground is still dry even if it does rain. Add to this the hot weather is never going to be that far away. I expect the hot air will be back (met office long range forecast hints at this) and it would not take much to rebuild the heat and humidity again. Hot summer's can lead to very thundery autumns, and I expect this year to follow suit with storms well into Autumn.
  13. It was very similar with the storms that hit where I was. Almost constant thunder. Although until the evening most of the lightning was either very feint or not visible at all.
  14. Completely agree with this. I would rather a year like this than a year with lots of weak thundery showers. With the storms at the end of April, the end of May and then last Thursday/Friday I have had an awesome year for storm chasing. The quality of the storms have been a step up from previous years IMO. We normally get at least one big continental type storm day in a year but this year I have chased on 6 big storm days and sometimes been treated to multiple big storms in a day. This past Friday offered up 6 storms in one day.
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