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James Maidstone

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Everything posted by James Maidstone

  1. James Maidstone
    Two things which strike me about Isha are: 1.) Just how much of the country will be affected by these winds, it seems quite rare for the whole country more or less to be under a wind warning 2.) The duration, whilst the wind speeds aren't going to be the highest ever, places will be seeing warning-worthy wind gusts for12-15 hours, often storms pass through within a few hours, but many places will have winds of 50-60mph+ for a long time
  2. James Maidstone
    Still talking about a 60 mile shift northwards for this run to bring the South into the game, marginal adjustments, unfortunately with UKMO, Icon and ECM all singing from the same hymn sheet, the odds are not in our favour.
  3. James Maidstone
    In terms of the track of a low 96+ hours out 50 miles is nothing. I agree with this, although I think we need to be realistic now that it is an outside chance and the bulk of the model runs have in increasingly tracking South, well South in some cases, but there are some that don't and recent model runs to my untrained eye show the depth/strength of the Northerly as not quite as strong which potentially could help to buck the trend. Personally I would wait until Monday for calling the Atlantic low a bust for frontal snow, however I would expect reasonable odds if I were to back it affecting mainland UK at this stage.
  4. James Maidstone
    High pressure starting to build over Norway by day by 192 on the 6Z GFS
  5. James Maidstone
    It's not an outlier (unless you go into FI), just lower in the envelope
  6. James Maidstone
    This is pretty much what the Met Office said, the track on the 12Z Op run is within the least likely outcomes according to the Met, but as you say, look at the envelope and see where it sits, compare tomorrow's 0z and 12z and then the day after that etc
  7. James Maidstone
    ..He was previously chief forecaster
  8. James Maidstone
    The OP is not "wrong" it is a model based on data inputs , therefore it isn't wrong, it just shows a different outcome to what you are hoping for expecting and also differs from other model runs
  9. James Maidstone
    Be interested to see where the GFS 18Z sits in the pack, miles ahead or above hopefully! It is just one GFS run, no need to over react to it. Let's see where we sit within 24 hours. The Met Office deep dive and week ahead video's should make interesting watching this week.
  10. James Maidstone
    Tides in the 5-7 day range aren't spring but neither are they neap either
  11. James Maidstone
    moderate snow in Maidstone, have a covering, still coming down
  12. James Maidstone
    Arome had everything modelled way further South than this morning too. Rain/Snow/Sleet went possibly 100 miles further North than Arome was showing. This was Arome's 00Z for 11am this morning:
  13. James Maidstone
    In 6 weeks time the sun will be at the same angle and the nights will be the same as today
  14. James Maidstone
    ECM doesn't go that far out does it?
  15. James Maidstone
    In parts of Kent we got 5 inches of snow in a couple of hours one Sunday night from a channel low which moved North. Some of the heaviest snow I have ever seen. Then it stuck around for a week.
  16. James Maidstone
    Thanks, - I get that, but at range the models indicate that frontal snow would sweep it aside and milder air follows quickly, but if I remember correctly in 2010-2011 the block kept pushing back, but the block was colder and stronger then?
  17. James Maidstone
    In terms of extending the cold snap, there seems general consensus of the models for letting the Atlantic in 7/8th December, although a minority of cross model ensemble members support retaining the cold. Historically, how often does the block delay the warm up or more than hold its ground and extend the cold?
  18. James Maidstone
    Last year a cold week was enough to bring the SST near enough back to average, so a lot less time than you may think for the North Sea
  19. James Maidstone
    Yes, but you need the temperature cold enough for it to influence whether it falls as rain or snow, finely balanced. Remember 3 years ago in early Jan we had about 30mm of rain here from NE winds, air temps around 2-3 degrees, dew points just the wrong side of marginal. Had we had a colder North Sea we would have had close to a foot of snow (although had it been colder then there would have been less precipitation in the first place). It's a fine balance!
  20. James Maidstone
    Only thing I would say to this was I was surprised how quickly the North Sea cooled down last year with only a week or so of cold temps
  21. James Maidstone
    Hardly getting buried "The Scottish Highland receive a few cm of snow in December" about as normal as you can get
  22. James Maidstone
    Just by understanding about Earthschool, it is still only being updated with information from models, not verified data?
  23. James Maidstone
    To my eye that is definitely a fair bit further North than for 21:00 on the 12z ECM (Pictured) and in also the 12z GFS for that matter
  24. James Maidstone
    It's toeing the line with UKV and keeping a Southerly track moving through London. Really Arome out on a bit of a limb now with GFS/Arpege/Icon in the middle ground
  25. James Maidstone
    UkV still sticking to the Southern Tracking. Very interested to see the 12z GFS, ECM, Arpege and Arome. Icon 12z is alligning with a South Coast track
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