James Maidstone

Two things which strike me about Isha are: 1.) Just how much of the country will be affected by these winds, it seems quite rare for the whole country more or less to be under a wind warning 2.) The duration, whilst the wind speeds aren't going to be the highest ever, places will be seeing warning-worthy wind gusts for12-15 hours, often storms pass through within a few hours, but many places will have winds of 50-60mph+ for a long time

Still talking about a 60 mile shift northwards for this run to bring the South into the game, marginal adjustments, unfortunately with UKMO, Icon and ECM all singing from the same hymn sheet, the odds are not in our favour.

In terms of the track of a low 96+ hours out 50 miles is nothing. I agree with this, although I think we need to be realistic now that it is an outside chance and the bulk of the model runs have in increasingly tracking South, well South in some cases, but there are some that don't and recent model runs to my untrained eye show the depth/strength of the Northerly as not quite as strong which potentially could help to buck the trend. Personally I would wait until Monday for calling the Atlantic low a bust for frontal snow, however I would expect reasonable odds if I were to back it affecting mainland UK at this stage.

High pressure starting to build over Norway by day by 192 on the 6Z GFS

It's not an outlier (unless you go into FI), just lower in the envelope

This is pretty much what the Met Office said, the track on the 12Z Op run is within the least likely outcomes according to the Met, but as you say, look at the envelope and see where it sits, compare tomorrow's 0z and 12z and then the day after that etc

..He was previously chief forecaster

The OP is not "wrong" it is a model based on data inputs , therefore it isn't wrong, it just shows a different outcome to what you are hoping for expecting and also differs from other model runs

Be interested to see where the GFS 18Z sits in the pack, miles ahead or above hopefully! It is just one GFS run, no need to over react to it. Let's see where we sit within 24 hours. The Met Office deep dive and week ahead video's should make interesting watching this week.

Tides in the 5-7 day range aren't spring but neither are they neap either

moderate snow in Maidstone, have a covering, still coming down

Arome had everything modelled way further South than this morning too. Rain/Snow/Sleet went possibly 100 miles further North than Arome was showing. This was Arome's 00Z for 11am this morning:

In 6 weeks time the sun will be at the same angle and the nights will be the same as today

ECM doesn't go that far out does it?

In parts of Kent we got 5 inches of snow in a couple of hours one Sunday night from a channel low which moved North. Some of the heaviest snow I have ever seen. Then it stuck around for a week.