kold weather2
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Posts posted by kold weather2
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Just now, paget said:
Very bright cold, frosty morning, no snow still but trying to be hopeful for Thursday/Friday
is it looking hopeful for us Western people?
Temp -4.8 (Farnham, Surrey)
dp - 5.8
webt down to -11.4 last night!
Could go either way with regards to tomorrow snow but there is a fair chance it will snow especially for those in the west of the section. With that being said the models are uncertain of the amounts of snow the ecm is far better for us, gfs much less so and it would only give us a couple centimetres probably
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Just now, paget said:
With the change of wind direction I really thought we were in for a shout!
Nope! Missed us again! ?
(farnham, Surrey)
temp got down to -11.3 last night!
We've had something similar here as well though we did get the lightest of dustings which makes it look wintery outside
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1 minute ago, AWD said:
The 0z Arpege is my fave this morning;
Widely 10cm - 15cm and a lot more over the moors by the end of play Friday.
I think that might be my favourite model as well. At my location it gives me 13 cm roughly which would be really nice form by far the biggest snowfall had since March 2013.
Mind you most models look decent for this area probably the only one that's not quite so go to gfs could it placed everything a little bit further West still good for the southwest but not so good for those in central Southern England where as vecm model that has everything further East and that's better for the whole entire of the South really.
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The slightest of dustings here but it does make a look like that more wintry than it had done yesterday.
Still big uncertainties regarding tomorrow's possible snow event more likely in the west but even this may get some if the ecm is correct. High resolution models also Greaves ecm but the gfs is a bit further West and doesn't have quite so much precipitation coming up from France on Thursday and said Focus is mainly on the front on Friday. Ecm horse has a front on Friday looking still pretty good with totals probably about 3 to 4 inches across the region with a little bit more towards the West.
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7 minutes ago, CK1981 said:
Farnborough, just down the road from here, is now reporting -8c ?
A long way back to get above 0C tomorrow given the wind will shift to an even drier source mid morning and cooling upper temps again. ECM keeps many below -2C tomorrow which is certainly possible for some.
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Pretty much every model except the GFS based models are bringing an area of snow north of Thursday morning. Most aren't too intense but could give a couple of cms, probably more likely to the west and south of London though.
Still a fairly big risk of freezing rain for the western parts of this region as well...Kent gets copious amounts of snow, and I'll probably get some snow and freezing rain
over here in the edge of the area!
Good luck to you guys in Kent, could be a good dumping again here tonight!
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Going to be a cold night everywhere but places with some snow cover are going to go through the floor for sure!
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Just now, Radiating Dendrite said:
We got hammered here in both 2009 and 2010. An ENE is perfect for us and still has a 60 mile sea track.
Friday is largely pointless given it will be puddles by Saturday.
Probably but I'd rather it goes out with a decent amount of snow then it slowly moderate upwards and the next front that comes through is just rain as the cold has moderated too much.
Totals for Thurs-Fri really hard to gauge, probably a decent shot at widespread 5-10cms, but a *low* possiblity of a lot more (especially so further west you go) if the low pressure ends up a little east of where the GFS thinks at the moment.
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Well I've had to make a new account due to forgetting all my details!
Anyway 12z ECM very intreresting as it give us a decent amount of snow on Friday but the big worry is that we are also on the edge of quite a dangerous section of freezing rain overnight Thursday-Friday.
Most models also do bringup quite a widespread area of light snow during Thursday, the GFS is just about the only model that does not at it puts the LP too far west for it intially. Main risk zone for Thursday is for the west of the area, hence why the amber extends into Hampshire/Surrey and W.Sussex. Not to say there won't be snow east of there, but probably less.
After maybe some freezing rain we move into a band of snow. Some disagreements on timings though strong agreements about the strength and motion of the front so unless something different happens, I'd expect some decent falls of snow on Friday morning into the afternoon,though amounts are still uncertain depending on the northward extent of the front.
over here in the edge of the area!
Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards
in Regional
Posted
06 models are still looking good for Western areas for snow tomorrow. Even the conservative gfs is starting to move towards that point of view but still much weaker than the other models, I suspect it's probably playing catch-up.
Western parts beat although there will probably still be some snow further East but not enough to warrant too much of a warning.
Further West it really depends on how far the front moves across our area still some uncertainty on that one as well but I think anywhere between 2 to 5 cm looks realistic at the moment could be more if the system is slightly further East than currently predicted. That doesn't include any potential snow on Friday either could get another 2 to 5 centimetres from that front as well