Joe Snow

Slight dusting overnight down to -1c

Would be great if a few short notice features crop up and or increase in potency they are NW England's biggest snow makers - Cumbria was forecast a few cm max at the start of the Dec but some areas saw close to a ft. I'm managing expectations by expecting nothing so will be happy with anything white that falls from the sky this week

Looks interesting - hoping for a covering even this far South but it'll be a nowcast scenario.

I don't think even the pros have a clue about snowfall potential this week it'll be very broad brush and a nowcast with flash warnings if appropriate. Equally I wouldn't be surprised if we stayed cold & dry we shall have to see.

Wed/ Thursdays snow warnings are like others have mentioned really baffling me - Met seem to be highlighting the risk of 2-10cm of snow quite widely Tues-Thurs very much an expect the unexpected kind of week. Personally don't think low levels will see much more than a 2-3cm covering at best higher ground & the north of the region likely to do better maybe. Would love to see some surprises though. Very cold nights can't be underestimated either -3/-4/-5c quite widely and lower than that potentially with any snow cover before a signalled transition to something less cold over next weekend.

Been away for a few days what have I missed Warnings now out for next week - Tues probably holding most potential as it stands for low level falling snow at least. Even a dusting would be nice as it'll stick around till the weekend. We'll see what happens but a damp squib of what we could have had.

A colder feeling day than forecast today - forecast 6c barely scraping 4c so cloudy & raw out there. Hopefully the Cheshire Gap is our friend next week even the MOD thread are talking about us

Thanks might need my winter boots Tues/ Wed then Similar amounts to 2nd Dec 2023 here.

A cold- very cold week ahead MO automated going for -5/-6c min next Wednesday so would rival early Dec’s cold snap , risk of snow Tues too. If we can a get a week out of this spell and a covering of snow I would be happy. Not excited yet but optimistic. What do you reckon for Cheshire Gap/ trough snow chances in the NW next week @Kasim Awan UKMO looks interesting this AM

Hopefully we catch something - would be happy with a covering if it can stick around for a few days under cold air - like early Dec but it sticking around would be great

I don’t understand why those in the SE in particular moan so much - they are the closest at times in the UK you can get to a continental climate - warm sometimes hot fairly dry summers, largely mild & pleasant spring & autumn shoulder seasons, a decent thunderstorm nearly every year with every snowfall event they have although perhaps more infrequent than north of Birmingham nearly always heavy & disruptive away from the immediate coast. It’s the far SW - coastal South Devon & Cornwall etc... that I feel sorry for in winter often relying for the most extreme Synoptics such as 2018’s Storm Emma to come together to deliver snowfall but you get what you expect there though - and you can’t beat a good Cornish summer. Here’s to some NW snowy surprises next week

5th Jan 2010 was meant to be ‘a few wintry showers moving in overnight Monday into Tuesday’ probably the most underestimated snow event in NW England’s history as even MCR city centre saw nearly 6 inches of snow Not to say it will this time but when these features crop up they locally can deliver big time

Think these kind of features will be the ones to watch vs any low to the south next week for snow making weather in the NW. Yeah we could stay dry but the heaviest snowfall in the NW always happens at short notice & often is underestimated - you only have to look at what happened in parts of Cumbria back in early December

I prefer the salt & pepper squid from the Chinese it could well be though - tbh I’m not excited by next week at all, an exhausting near 3-4 week chase for this cold spell since mid Dec has taken it out of me and we don’t seem to be any clearer as to what may evolve and where we stand late month going into Feb although most now favour a less cold outcome late month before returning to more blocked conditions into February. We’ll see what happens next week could be good, could be all a bit meh.

I think we’ll be looking for and hopefully benefiting from potential features moving from the N/ NW for snow in the NW early-mid next week. GFS 12z just out edges the ‘will it won’t it’ low into S England mid week.

I would rather side with the UKMO & ECM tbh - I know ECM has had its wobbles but GFS has been poor this past week after perhaps initially sniffing out the initial wintry potential. Model fatigue is definitely setting in for some though with the chase for cold stretching back pre Xmas - it’s been exhausting. A largely cold week next week but snow far from certain just yet but you would hope we could catch something.

It hasn’t helped that the MO & pros themselves have hyped up the potential of this forecast cold spell - talking of disruptive snowfall next week online, video & medium range forecasts & on social media they must see something more substantial. Even if we do go more blocked into Feb it will be hugely disappointing if all we see is a few coldish days and a frost only for the rain & milder temps to quickly return as per 00z GFS. Would be just our luck though

Yeah have seen a few events like that think there was a similar event in Mar 2013 that buried NE Wales & the Midlands but just grazed the region with some flurries. Then again 18th Jan 2013 saw some decent frontal snowfall south of MCR - not the dumping the Midlands saw but a covering none the less. We aren’t in the shadow as much this far SE. It’ll probably hit France anyway

Think we’ll see some snow probably from short notice features - south of the region at risk of any frontal activity if the low pushes far enough north. Cheshire/ Merseyside, Wirral & NE Wales into Staffs & the Midlands most at risk of this as per 18th Jan 2013. Way too early to accurately say though.

Would be interesting to get your thoughts @Kasim Awan on the potential low next week from a NW England viewpoint - a wasted interest for us here in the NW or a significant snow maker? Are we better looking for short notice disturbances instead?

Not going to happen is it but that would be a modern record for S Cheshire at least 12 -14cm on 17th -18th Dec 2010 is the deepest snow I’ve recorded here followed by 9cm on 5th Jan 2010, 8cm Jan 2021 post Storm Christoph & 7cm 18th Jan 2013 (probably the most comparable as it was a frontal event) Way too early to be predicting snowfall for next week accurately but think the south of the region *may* get in on any frontal feature though (Midlands getting the direct hit) with other short notice disturbances in the flow providing potential further snowfall opportunities.

Midlands look to be a very good place to be for a high impact snow event next week. We in NW England look good too for snow more generally but we might be on the edge as it is on systems to the south pushing this far north. Hoping some short notice features pop up with some surprises too

For Heavy cold rain knowing our luck!

Call me overly cautious but until the GFS is dragged kicking and screaming back on board to more than a day or two of cold next week I still will have doubts about the depth & longevity of next weeks cold spell as with the GFS it’s usually good at sniffing out cold weather spoilers, it just exaggerates them a bit in the long term outlook.

Notable is how bullish they are being about next weeks cold & snow potential - big now independent names such as the brilliant John Hammond (former BBC Weather forecaster) also are very much on board. The MO are usually very cautious but must be gearing up for potential significant high impact weather where Amber & even Red Warnings would be issued for them to allow such tweets to be posted out by forecasters on social media. Would love to be a fly on the wall as they brief Government & local authorities later this week